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Could it be FRANKD tests used in Genesig machines? This article suggests it's FRANKD tests indeed:
https://www.kilburntimes.co.uk/news/rehearsals-for-sleepless-in-wembley-park-with-covid-testing-1-6778462
FRANKD are produced by GeneMe, from Poland
https://frankd.geneme.eu/
Below quote is from Eurofins H1 report, just released. They are a fair bit bigger than Novacyt (€11B mcap, see https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/FR0000038259-XPAR) and can produce 20M tests per month. If the same June/July trend reversal applies to Novacyt, the upcoming sales figures are going to be tasty.
“COVID-19 testing services and products revenues have been growing significantly since March 2020. As initially mostly government laboratories were carrying out these tests in several European countries and the first pandemic peaks and associated testing demand subsided in June in most countries, the large COVID-19 testing and reagent capacity created by Eurofins by June was only moderately utilised in Q2. As a result, these additional revenues did not fully compensate the lost organic growth due to the lockdowns in Q2. However, since then, as the pandemic continues to expand in many countries and more Eurofins laboratories become approved by local governments to carry out such tests, demand is starting to increase strongly. As a result, COVID-19 and reagents revenues exceeded EUR 55m in the month of July 2020 only and the number of samples tested is currently increasing significantly week on week.”
Could expect a retrace to the broken resistance zone (3.00-3.05 in London, 3.30-3.35 in Paris), before a further move up.
The order book looks rather odd, I wouldn't bet my money on a 3.60 opening.
https://www.boursorama.com/cours/1rPALNOV/
Thanks EXMEX, certainly interesting. Showing nicely that a) Novacyt/Primerdesign with their new products and even with their production capacity are way ahead of key US competitors, and b) not nearly enough on the demand side seem to be aware of that. Opportunities should be huge there for the company, if they can get themselves on the radar of those operating the buy buttons.
Smokie, check the dates (slide the frame to the right). Selling occurred in an earlier stage, the more recent updates are buys.
according to Morningstar: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xfra/nyz/ownership
Modest numbers, but encouraging nonetheless.
2nd FDA approval received:
http://acaciapharma.com/news/2020/07/acacia-pharma-announces-us-fda-approval-of-byfavo-remimazolam-for-injection-for-the-induction-and-maintenance-of-procedural-sedation
Time for a decent re-rate.
That would be great. Exciting times ahead!
The Exsig Direct report on the Crowdicity website shared by gggg21 mentions a production volume of initially 1M/month and scalable to 9M/month.
Any insights whether that is in addition to or instead of the 10M/month regular tests that we produce? I guess it’s the latter (the quicker test gradually replacing the slower), but would be quite delighted to learn it’s the former.
First, TO is real-time (refreshed every 15 secs or so) while the book is 15 minutes delayed, so the real-time book may look different than the one you see.
Second, you also have to look at the book in more detail. Right now, there is 26k on the bid at 2.90. These more than absorb the 9k on the ask at MKT, so under current conditions it would open at 2.90.
Hope this helps.
Hi gggg21 – thanks for the kind welcome. Just contributing my two cents to solving the puzzle of what I see as an increasing disconnect between ever improving fundamentals and disappointing price development.
Feel free to share my posts on twitter (I’m not there, just reading), as long as you speak nicely of them;)
Watched L2 in Paris during the last 20 minutes of trading. Most of the bigger ask orders were not meant to be sold for real: they were pulled up as soon as the bids came close. I’m guessing they mainly served to impress, and encourage other sellers to lower their ask price in order to get at the front of the queue (so helping a buyer?). The last regular trade before the auction was a sell of one single stock to move the price from 2.74 to 2.71. Someone’s taking their role as party pooper quite seriously.
Johnnykipper - Big contracts sure are nice, especially if they stretch over longer periods of time, but we should keep in mind that each of our 130+ customers only needs to order 10M/130=75,000 tests per month for our monthly production capacity to sell out (and less as long as the PHE contract is in force). That doesn’t sound unfeasible.
Moreover, there is also the longer-term customer base development perspective: I prefer the company to use this pandemic event to widen its customer base as much as possible, instead of becoming the preferred supplier for only a small number of countries. Over 130 relatively small but happy Covid-19 customers around the world are potentially going to buy much more non-Covid-19 products from Primerdesign/Novacyt than 5-10 ‘mega’ Covid-19 customers.
As long as they manage to sell close to production capacity, I don’t care much if mega-contracts remain few and far between.
Yesterday’s price action in Paris followed a similar pattern as last Monday’s (about which I posted Monday evening). It was basically 3 dumps (130k at ~12:30, 70k at ~13:15, and 50k at ~14:00) that in 3 steps beat the price down from 2.90 to 2.70. Like Monday, that was enough to quell buying appetite for the rest of the day, drive many small holders to despair (as manifest on the boards) and, without doubt, turn some of them into sellers.
In my view, such dumps are unlikely the work of small holders, and also not in the interest of larger holders selling to lock in profits (these would rather drip-feed their shares into the market which was happy to pay between 2.90 and 3 all morning long). On the back of a good news release, such dumps, again in my view, can only be intended to demotivate the herd (that’s us) and lower the stock price, and thus serve the interest of those who want to buy in at a lower price level. That would be either shorters or investors aiming to build a larger position, or the two of them working in cahoots.
I haven’t monitored intra-day price action every day, but I suspect action similar as yesterday to have played out on previous ‘disappointing’ RNS-days as well. To me it suggests the recent downward pressure on the stock price is not caused by one or more big holders selling to lock in profits (we even don’t have big holders to begin with), but more likely by players aiming to buy in at a lower price level, be they shorters or genuine position-builders.
A problem so far with this theory is that according to the registers we neither have a serious short-interest in the stock (unless there are multiple shorters active under the 0.5% reporting threshold), nor do we see signs of significant long positions building (beyond Vatel’s). That means I could well be incorrect. Yet, the observed price action combined with the basic idea that all investors in principle want to buy low and sell high, to me suggests something might indeed be brewing. GL to all.
bluetiger - agree, should be patent-pending, and that of course takes time. And no, not Paul.
Fully agree Woodaldo, and I'm guessing this could also be a pathway to significantly increased revenues beyond Covid-19 - just what the doctor ordered to get rid of the 'one-day wonder' label and justify the use of more optimistic multipliers for the calculation of fair market cap from yearly revenues.
One small worry: unlike last week's pre-announcement by Atothis, today's RNS does not refer to Exsig Direct as 'patented'. I do hope they are duly taking care of that.
So no need to return to these levels anymore:)
Danny, not really, just curious to know if all the trading of the past few weeks/months has resulted in any new major shareholders.
Thanks alla4UK and DW for your help. Seemingly of limited use for us private investors then. Back to Morningstar it is.