Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
GM: “How do we bring the news about our new antigen tests without triggering too much buying interest in our shares?”
Communications advisor (CA): “What if we come out early, with the Pro version already CE-marked and available for sale but the self-test still pending. It’s the self-test that will excite investors most, so in this way some disappointment should be guaranteed. You can then announce its real launch later with a tweet, for instance on a Friday night.”
GM: “Good thinking, I like it. What else can we do?”
CA: “Well, just don’t mention any extras that could make potential investors salivate, if you’ll forgive the pun. For starters, don’t mention your production capacity. If they really want to know, they can track back the company’s tweets. We had that infographic some time ago remember? No need to hand it to them on a plate. The same goes for the tests’ capacity to detect all currently known variants, including the Delta variant that everyone is so concerned about now. You mentioned that already sometime in April I believe. If they really want to know, let them do their own research. Also, no need to reiterate that you expect these tests to generate significant additional revenues for the company - done that already. If they cannot remember, and that’s my honest opinion, they simply don’t deserve to be invested here.”
GM: “Great stuff, love it. I knew I made the right decision when I hired you guys, worth every pound and penny. What about our partner? I’ve mentioned we have one a couple of times already. Can I just stay silent about them as well?”
CA: “Hmm, that would perhaps be a bit too awkward. Just mention the absolute minimum. Say it’s an OEM, that can be interpreted either way. You got them on an NDA, don’t you?”
GM: “Sure, they won’t say a thing, the same terms we always use for our partners and clients. In mysterious ways we move, and as far under the radar as can be.”
CA: “Alright, I think we’ve got it then, that should keep the sharks at bay. I’ll make the draft. You’ll have it first thing tomorrow.”
A work of fiction, obviously, but sometimes I wonder.
Porky, to take your learning experience one step further: MSCI (Global) is not a fund, it’s (among other things) an index compiler. It compiles indexes made up of either micro-, small-, mid- or large cap companies, across different territories. Many funds invest according to these indexes (have a look, for instance, at the funds invested in Novacyt listed on Morningstar). Every six months, MSCI adjusts their indexes following the evolution of the listed companies’ market caps. Companies the market cap of which have crossed the thresholds defining micro-, small-, mid- and large cap, will move from one index to another. These changes are announced mid-November and mid-May, with the funds following these indexes receiving a ~two-week deadline to adjust their holdings (i.e. sell if a company exits from the category they follow and/or buy if a company enters a category they follow).
Last year November, on the back of our market cap increase during the year, we moved from micro- to small-cap, resulting in a similar end-of-day volume spike (on 30 November) as we saw yesterday. Our market cap decline since the beginning of this year, by MSCI standards, has pushed us back in micro-cap territory. The sellers yesterday therefor were MSCI small-cap following funds which had to take Novacyt out from their portfolios. The buyers were MSCI micro-cap followers who had to include Novacyt into their portfolios. Apparently, such trades are practically all going through Paris/Euronext, and not via AIM. I don’t know why. I also do not know if such events are exploited by shorters.
Hopefully, come November we qualify for small-cap again.
That was Sharehunter3, I remember it well. He was relentless that day, absolutely on fire. Us mortals had no other choice than smacking the buy button after each and every post of his. And up we went, higher and higher. No seller could cope with that, all those buyers buying from the sellers that were selling. God, I miss those days.
French Eurobio now also capable of testing for variants:
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/03/09/2189154/0/en/Eurobio-Scientific-extends-its-family-of-proprietary-PCR-tests-to-allow-the-identification-of-SARS-CoV-2-variants.html
One more for the glossary then, while we wait.
Novasheet: a piece of paper so full of dots that space to join them is virtually absent.
Bring on next week!
French competitor Eurobio last night reported €189 million of sales for 2020, with 62% of that Covid-19 related, and up 220% from the year before. Not much guidance for 2021 given. Market cap of the company as of yesterday was €255 million. Should be interesting to see how the share price reacts today.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/01/25/2163738/0/en/Eurobio-Scientific-EXCEPTIONAL-2020-TURNOVER-OF-189-MILLION-220.html
All shares affected it seems, not only Novacyt.
No, they reported because a threshold was crossed (downward through 3%). What they do next is anyone's guess.
And nearly 200k shares were traded in the movement (in Paris). Probably worth the effort for some(one).
Reached a low of 8.39 in France, and jumped back to 9 almost immediately. Other French Covid shares not affected, so purely a Novacyt game so it would seem.
diagnostics companies have just raised their outlook for 2020: Eurofins and bioMerieux.
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201214005865/en/
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201214005725/en/
Will we be next?
According to Morningstar they have been accumulating since September at least:
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xfra/nyz/ownership
Slowly but steadily it seems.
Hi B2HS2L, sorry, I don't know the exact criteria used. I guess market cap plays an important role.
This page should enable you to find a more accurate answer: https://www.msci.com/index-methodology
And this is quite interesting too: in October we were one of the largest companies in the entire MSCI Micro Cap index: https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/bb1a8751-be89-4172-b732-853da686b9a6
Sorry Donno (and others) for not responding, I logged off after that post. Here’s a bit more colour:
Novacyt used to be included in the MSCI France Micro Cap index. We have grown too big for it however, meaning we had to be omitted from the index in the yearly(?) reshuffle. We now do qualify for MSCI’s France Small Cap index, and we have subsequently been admitted there. These decisions were made (by MSCI I presume, not Novacyt) and communicated to relevant parties earlier in November, perhaps even before that (I don’t know exactly, I’m not in the loop). The details are here: https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_Nov20_MicroPublicList.pdf (exit Micro Cap, see page 3), and here: https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/smallcap/MSCI_Nov20_SCPublicList.pdf (entry Small Cap, see page 6).
Fund managers tracking the indices were given until 30 Nov to either unload (Micro Cap) or accumulate (Small Cap) Novacyt shares. I have no idea whether they normally all agree to wait until market close of the 30th to collectively sell/buy, or if some make their trades in the days/weeks prior to the 30th. I also have no idea whether the event is an occasion for some to try to either suppress or boost the share prices to help their agendas.
The only thing we can be sure of is that yesterday end of day some 2M shares still needed to be traded for the reshuffle to be completed. Any imbalance between the supply of Micro Cap sellers and the demand of Small Cap buyers may have been mitigated by the involvement of other big sellers or buyers: shuffles like these are convenient opportunities for them to accumulate/unload without affecting the share price too much. It would require more detailed trading data to figure out if this happened or not.
All should be quiet now, on this front, until we outgrow Small Cap and qualify for Mid Cap.
Here’s hoping that day will come soon:)
MSCI France Micro Cap Fund sold out, MSCI France Small Cap Fund bought. That was it.
They went from micro to small cap.
https://app2.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/MSCI_Nov20_MicroPublicList.pdf
Next year from small to mid cap?
Huge volume too, some 1.7M shares
Yes, they usually do that towards the end of January.
Looking good.