Next move is down to China30 Jun 2023 12:59
Re: future growth in Nd/Pr RE's and price forecasts:
All very well for market researchers to project huge increases in RE consumption, and massive price rises as a result, but they're all assuming its a free market.
China has other ideas. It has already warned the rest of the world not to think China will continue to be the default processor/supplier of the world's REs. It has already implemented a centrally-planned programme to meet ALL of its internal EV demand internally in the next 5 years, as well as flooding the world market with ultra-cheap EVs (see BYD). It is already advancing through building a massive internal wind-power expansion which will consume the majority all of the world's forceast RE magnet production in the next decade.
Now Biden has hit China with another tech export restriction - the specialised AI-processor chips China must have to further its plans for world AI dominance. This is on top of existing US chip embargoes, and blocking the sale to China of the software and related technology for setting up chip foundries for the newest chip designs.
Short of seizing Taiwan and its advanced chip foundries (even China probably recognises this would be a grossly retrograde action on the present world political/economic stage), China has recently completed a review of weaponising its RE chokehold (recently acknowledged by the US military as just as strong today as it was 5 or 10 years ago).
So the question is - will China now action its review by imposing an RE embargo to force the US/West to abandon its tech embargoes? On the face of it - given China has control of internal RE supply and demand, backed by the progress it has made hoovering up RE mining and processing capacity world-wide, topped by it's own hefty internal demand in the next 10 years - the West would certainly come off worst.
On the other hand, a China RE embargo would cause an immediate panic reaction across the West and Japan/Korea, driving prices sky high and trigger a "build at any cost" supply chain boom in the West.
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