Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The ITP deadline has passed with no announcement - some were predicting bloodbath if we didn’t get confirmation !
And ?? It’s all fine - I think everybody knows there’s no danger of it not happening and the pressure point of the deadline has now been relieved. The news will have a positive impact when it’s confirmed but we no longer need fear the deadline.
I suspect Mike’s mates are not the only ones stepping back in as a result.
Not sure it’s just fuel but surely gas and oil are main culprits. Having said that anyone in the building trade will tell you that plenty of raw materials have gone up hugely - timber being a good example - 100% in some cases. International container freight costs gone up multiples.
There are other examples.
The good news is that some of these costs can and possibly will reverse (oil falling as I write) and inflation will plummet - unless labour costs go up 10% across the board and then it will become stickier.
The recession may come when the interest rate hikes kick-in. It won’t be in manufacturing - it will come when our wives stop going to the hairdressers and paying £100+ a pop.
FYI I know one of the clothing businesses on your list - literally I know HIM - one man and a sewing machine. I can confirm he’s busy but he’s not going to stave off a recession on his own. He’s also a marvellous blues guitarist as it happens.
Look under Investors - aim rule 26 - significant shareholders.
Note: Of those 7 significant shareholders a couple of them are retail platforms - eg interactive investor.
Nervous times here: like it has been said - they have published on 30th June before and the results are more or less in the public domain already so nothing alarming there. It’s just what else do they have to say….
I’ve no idea what to expect - worst case scenario - more disappointing US sales, nothing much elsewhere and a horrible raise.
Best case - US sales significant and on an accelerating growth trajectory, real traction elsewhere and no need to raise cash (maybe debt linked to US sales).
I suspect we’ll find out tomorrow - I can’t see them delaying results - there would have to be a problem with 2021 accounts - they can’t just do it because they want to wait a bit longer for 2022 projections.
Thanks PJT22
Reads more or less exactly the way AN said it. AN is experienced enough to know that in the absence of an immediate catapult into billion dollar turnover - which was never promised - fantastic announcements such as FDA clearance are usually followed by a spike and a pull back - fuelled increasingly by the likes of Jolly Speculator etc (who know how to flush out the weak holders) and exacerbated by the current very nervous market. He will be relaxed about the SP short term and clearly happy to see the short term traders exit. If the SP falls and more ‘sticky’ investors with a longer term view buy in then that bodes well for the SP in the future.
If you bought in to get the quick profit from the FDA clearance then I suspect your chance has gone for the moment.
If, like me, you trust AN to build a substantial business out of Parsortix (or flog it sooner rather than later, but at a multiple of current SP) then, as disappointing as the pull back is, you won’t be too worried short term.
With respect Br3xiUK - whilst I get the sentiment I really struggle to read your last post - not sure whether it’s autocorrect or mistyping on a mobile but it would help your credibility if you read through your sentences before posting.
Darren - I think the positivity is because there was some uncertainty around financing and this has now been resolved albeit with less favourable terms than previously - but that probably has more to do with current macro environment.
The new CFO has been in place a month now and this will have been high on his list. One box ticked already.
Bulk trading - news ? Nothing that isn’t already discussed on here regularly - ITP sale for one thing but more announcements re SMRs, improved numbers re flying hours and more defence contracts - in particular the huge US helicopter gig. Any one of these could be be very positive and you can bet JPM will happily trot out a revised target and a buy recommendation and just say things have changed.
Chaigh,
Good luck,
One last piece of advice from me - be very careful about being tempted to ‘trade’ short term - it’s really difficult to consistently make money and the vast majority of ‘retail’ (that’s you and I) investors dont - check the statistics on the trading platform you use - it will be in the ‘risk disclosure notice’.
All your eggs in one basket is never a good idea but depends on how much you started with - if it’s not a lot then it’s not always efficient to split into smaller tranches as the transaction costs start to be significant.
Fingers crossed you will be ok with RR. - it touched £1.50 six months ago on less significant news than we have coming up - albeit before the War but that won’t last forever. (fingers crossed again)
Chaigh,
Market cap is ‘Market Capitalisation’ which is simply total number of shares in issue multiplied by share price. It fluctuates with the share price and so for £50bn in 3 years time the share price needs to be approx 5 times higher.
Importantly - if new shares are issued this changes the calculation and so be careful comparing current SP with historic if shares have been issued in the meantime. i.e. more shares means lower SP equates to same mcap.
With respect, this is very basic stuff and I recommend you get a book on investing rather than rely on the bulletin boards - some boards are better than others but often the most vocal contributors are unreliable at best and it frequently degenerates to bragging, name calling and puerile squabbling - as you rightly pointed out when you arrived.
Whatever the SP does today will be dwarfed by the next few weeks/months/years as we start getting news of the commercial take up. This kick starts everything. I think we can expect, in the short term, news of new contracts for the labs, commercial partnerships to sell it into clinical settings and fairly rapid further FDA submissions for other applications - which ought to be quick now the de novo hurdle has been overcome.
I hope they don’t sell out to Abbott or anyone else, at least not too soon - AN can build a multi-billion business from this and a multi-billion mcap to go with it.
Like others, I have waited a long time for this and was not particularly confident if I’m honest but I am not tempted to sell at this stage - this is not some random spike based on a dodgy RNS like most SP action on AIM….