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Neil wants option 1, but what if it's option 2. Lower interest rates . funds available now for Magnus type deals without equity fund raising.. it's the only thing that makes sense, so long as the RCF bankers agree. At the end of the day it's only an overdraft.

It sort of repairs the equity side , if they can present it well and 99% of people don't get confused. Canaccord haven't seen the script yet.. but I bet our lawyers have.. all speculation.. but we all have learned by now that Enquest don't stand still.. I think they are going to put the engine room into bat.

It's certainly worth exploring the range of possibilities: First I've seen .. so they must have something to say..

1. More dilution to fund another Magnus type deal.. always a risk they need more funds or more projects to do.
2. A partial debt reorganisation.. lower interest rates for longer term.. perhaps another bond issue, to replace the RCF, so the immediate extra cashflow that would have been used for 2020 and 2021 debt repayments can be used for growth acquisitions. I think they anticipate reaching the comfort zone for net debt/ EBITDA in early 2020.
3. A share consolidation of some sort.
4. None of the above. just a nice chat for those that are interested, but we just got the 1H results not so long a go.

Option2 imv. GL.

Having regular contact with investors and analysts is important to a listed company. Many companies organise capital markets days, often off-season, to provide financial stakeholders the opportunity to meet management of the company, get more information on the company in general and usually a division in particular, or for instance an update on strategy. The company has the chance to show a broader perspective and also invite non-board members to give a presentation.

Guess we should email HQ and ask for an invite. I personally think it's a good thing , and gives them an opportunity to explain exceptional items , and expected numbers to hit Q2 2019.

Fills the void. And might get a positive re-rate.

I'm not surprised by the boost towards the end of the day, we should be moving higher as we move through the last quarter. We should be looking at what's left from EBITDA after all costs are deducted to value the equity, so Enquest has to be more open. From the recent Barclays broker note, I can only assume they also have not been updated informally either. So its a complete guess at the moment.. best be pessimistic given track record.

19.5 open, then 1 trade at 19.75, then down to 19.p , 18.75 and backup to 19.25p. Then 19p , then 19.1, then Brent moves up to $61.5 and we see 20p by end of day.

Best close those shorts.

JS also has significant shares and options, so I doubt he is steering the company to a 25p takeover..

Remember to close any shorts asap. Q3 finished and Q4 looks decent.

Tremendous news on Phase 1, $50b of agricultural products have to be moved from US to China, by sea... using lots more oil.

Saw 18.93 . Bodes well for 19p on Monday

$65 Brent is the target once Trump does a mini deal with China , Enquest Sp unlikely to respond much further than 21p until Enquest provide details on exceptional items for 2H. Show me the Money !

Over 60 dollars we have hedged huge amounts at 60-66 dollars and the mc is 316 million mins boggling compared with cairn and pmo :-)
************************************************* because in the 1H accounts, very little ended up with equity holders. The same expectation could be said for 2H, unless the exceptional items disappear, in which case Enquest would get a huge boost. Can't see them saying anything until next year really.. so keep on accumulating like AB and others. Meaningless really as my average is much higher.. same as a lot of AB's holdings., but I can feel the same pain.

My gut instinct is that the board have under-estimated the effect of the magnitude of exceptional items on the EBITDA.. so will be glad to get this behind them where possible. Ruins the credibility of the business plan.

10,521 shares at 18.85 .

AB might see light at the end of the tunnel now.. but he might be the only one at the moment , Many doubters, but perhaps Q4 will surprise us with Brent higher than expected and exceptional items very much reduced for the 2H 2019 accounts.. They should give some guidance on exceptional items before the year end as it's this that spoils the party for equity holders.
GL

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.desmogblog.com/2019/10/03/fracking-revolution-peak-without-profits%3famp

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49957551?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cp7r8vglgnet/food-industry&link_location=live-reporting-correspondent

Basic advice is to address the net debt issue which I understand Enquest is doing, but those Bonds will always hold down the SP, .... best to target net debt sub $500m to impress the market . Say by Dec 2022.

Not only do we need Shale operators to calm down drilling activities, we also need to see natural decline rates all over the world increase. There have certainly been innovations to stabilize decline rates , but eventually the short term magic dust runs out. Woodmac are indicating increased decline rates from 2021 so we still have a tough year in 2020 with lowish oil prices. Seeking Alpha indicating Enquest is very undervalued but is neutral on stock as it appears it anticipates lower production in the 2020s,. It's a gamble whether oil prices rises in 2021 due to natural declines that could be quite significant if other oil companies also cut capex budgets severely as well. I'd suggest shale oil capex reductions have already started the process , others will have to join in and we should see higher prices in 2021. Enquest has to maintain its production at current rates for longer than the market thinks it can to get a re-rate , but that bond debt will always be holding this back.

I can see the need for annual capex on Magnus and Malaysia drills to offset natural declines in the rest of the portfolio, and perhaps once we see the benefits of this year's drilling coming through, it should convince the market that production at this rate can be maintained for several years , thus justifying a higher sp.

I agree with you Mav,

Pelle opt 2. Farmout 20% of Kraken
Re-invest into another Magnus type deal to unlock the expertise and create $1b NPV for say $500m cost.

Goose would have wanted it too.

Goose would have wanted it too.

MOSCOW, Oct 2 (Reuters) - OPEC and other oil producers need to coordinate more closely to reduce market volatility, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday.
He also said oil prices were stable for now but the market outlook was uncertain.

OPEC’s Barkindo invites 97 oil producing countries to join Charter of Cooperation.
The OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo was on the wires last hour, via Interfax, noting that “we will do all that is necessary to keep market balanced”.
On Tuesday, Barkindo invited all 97 oil-producing countries to join the Charter of Cooperation.
He said that the ‘Charter’ is a platform to facilitate dialogue among the Participating Countries, aiming to promote oil market stability, cooperation in technology and other areas, for the benefit of oil producers, consumers, investors and the global economy, per Azer News.

Acceptance that they can't do it alone anymore. Must be hurting the fiscal budgets for SA and many others.
Shale can't justify more capex spending with WTi in the low $50 range, but will do it anyway because the bank says yes.. Well it may have done in the past if you can convince them that spacing pads very closely together is the best scenario, but alas the proof is the exact opposite..

I think Shale can't afford to borrow more to fund new drills.. but Enquest are funding from existing cashflow and still paying off large amounts of high interest bearing loans. a completely different situation. US is full of boom and bust.. Shale is no different now they have realised pads too close together are actually dropping the overall returns.

US Rigs will decline.. OPEC will manage the supply a bit more.. Enquest will motor on with a $1b EBITDA / annum , albeit with no returns for equity, until the balance sheet is strong enough to survive a sustained lower oil price environment.

We only have $155m scheduled to repay in 2020, so things are pretty relaxed at HQ imv.

All other new capex adds value/ has net positive cashflow.

Ps: we still have our hedging in place.

I certainly believe Enquest Board and employees have the competence to deliver.... but there have been some real howlers..
Enquest Producer.. imv never sorted.. waste of a lot of money and Kraken .. sorted but huge delays.. which cost us extra interest and the dilution via RI.

Magnus I understand is a very good deal.. but the existing older North Sea portfolio will struggle, so we will need the extra annual drilling . I have no idea why they have started to describe some assets as World class.. as it's had no positive effect on the SP as nothing gets added to equity at the moment.. So does Enquest just operate with $1b of loans each year from Jan 2021 without any further debt reduction and create some saving/room for equity..? Perhaps yes.. but any value gets created from 2021. Long wait.. but with 12 yrs of reserves now, is that enough . It should be , but you won't persuade any large II to buy in the absence of a dividend or another creative Magnus type deal.

They have to find another Magnus type deal , there main asset is their expertise /knowhow which they have demonstrated with Magnus very well.