Member Info for hitman1a

I know after the 2018 AGM, AB said the SP was low due to the lack of II.. but I remember the SP was about 36p at the time before the RI.. Indeed a member of the audience suggested what if the Kraken repairs took longer than anticipated , eg 1 year more, and AB replied he would be disappointed.. well it's taken about 1.5years to fix Kraken.. albeit I would say it wasn't built right in the first place.. At the time I thought another few months.

So CMD day might be the first stepping stone to a recovery path... but why would an II buy into this without a dividend or capital appreciation... At the 2018 AGM, they said dividends could be available in the medium term.. so it's too early for those, so its capital appreciation which might get emphasised at the CMD via debt reduction and excess to reserves in 2020.. Which begs the question.. why is the SP still struggling ? Ans : because the II don't believe Enquest can do it.

At the moment , I think the market is questioning the reserves life of the portfolio, and indeed how much extra capex is required over the years . Could be 11 to 12 years, but it’s a guess calculated by the company.

The price of Kraken is a lot more today when compared to when we needed the money , At the moment I assume the CMD will get us to 20p. I hope they give the October total production like PMO so analysts can start extrapolating from fresh data , Barclays might even rerate to 25p after the meeting .

Honest 60pP.
This is what they are negotiating.. it's a $1b deal. next week it might be sherbet dib dabs.

Trump supporters say previous zero tariffs for countries that were "behind" should be removed as those countries like China are now wealthy , so it's finding all sort of other small stuff to correct the trade imbalance. .. and win a few more votes.

early signs Phase 1 might be completing.. but eg:

last night I saw on Bloomberg China has agreed to purchase all the extra chicken legs from USA.. all the darkish meat. My Uncle from the States says the US generally prefers the white breast meat, and US poultry producers often wonder what to do with all extra legs KFC doesn't want.. so US is happy and China is happy. If this is an example of what they have been negotiating, it could take a little bit longer to get to the end of phase 1. PS: KFC in India also has darkish meat in the Zinger.. locals say darker the better..... but I then doubted if it was real chicken. maybe it was.

small top up at 18.77p , 10,568 shares

Certainly don't want an update like Tullow, ……. even RBC didn't see that one coming..
I've asked Mr Carlsberg to write the next Enquest operation update.. GL

Thing about CEOs in shale companies, is that the people under them think the same way.. I recall a conversation with my Cousin a few years back who is a fracking engineer in Texas.. I relayed my concern to him about all this extra production and the low prices.. he just said they would keep on fracking whatever happened and WTi $65 was a comfortable figure which was realistic.. Well things haven't turned out that way.. the war with OPEC hasn't been won.. but plenty of US workers kept their 6 figure salaries, whilst loosing quite a bit more on their share options.. Lies have been told about Tier 2 productivity rates to get funding from US banks but the circus is now coming to an end.. Perhaps another year to slowly see Tier 1 run down a bit more , but the original Shale business plan only worked if prices had stayed about $65. WTi.. now it might be WTi $70 with Tier 2 and beyond. which puts Enquest and Brent in a good position in 2020 to clear debt without chasing production.

found this

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/enquest-plcs-lon-enq-ceo-060935455.html

"Some CEOs don't seem to accept that the game has changed" .. I also think that applies to Shale , but the US banks are teaching them now. Almost feel they lied to the bankers about production capabilities.. Tier2 and beyond can't be profitable if Tier 1 hasn't been.

Enquest.. I hope they make the balance sheet much stronger.. ie even more debt repaid.. to lower levels . ie $500m, rather than $1b/$1.5b range.. only pick the best ongoing projects and avoid scraps./ new builds.

I still think 80k /day for Q4 might be optimistic, but possible.. 70K seems more sensible. Indeed apart from Kraken, I think Enquest may dial down some units and stay within guidance.. I've certainly understood from before they can tweak production here and there when they need to.. ie a bit extra before maintenance periods.

Trump sounds like he only wants to do a deal with China, so long as it's unfair to China.. so that doesn't bode well.. I saw a TV interview a few years back.. A lady went for a business meeting with Trump, negotiated a deal and left the meeting.. Shortly afterwards, Trump's team called her and said they wanted better terms .. almost unfair , or the deal was off.
The lady walked away from the deal.. I believe China will be experiencing the same thing.. As soon as things get close, Trump will change his mind and want even more.. It's weird to have a President interfere with Trade talks via Twitter. It doesn't build trust between both sides , hence why no progress is being made.

Thanks E121, I'm interested in the 2020 capex budget. (2019: $275m) as a SP driver.

If we say $50m for annual basic capex , I'd be interested in what Enquest pencil in for Kraken western flank, and a bit more annual drilling at Magnus and PM8 . If we cap total 2020 spend at say $120m, that's $145m less than 2019, which goes to equity and strengthens the balance sheet. Thats worth 8p/share.
I just wonder if they will announce the figure now or wait till the new year. If they release a much higher number , I'll be disapointed, albeit with short pay back periods, some might be pleased investing more into a higher Brent prices environment.

I'd have to agree with you L7, Scolty is a wild card, but I can't ever recall hearing how much extra they expected to produce with the replacement .

I never thought it would be that much, but given how much fatbergs affect sewers, we could see above 5k /day ?

In many ways this reminds me of Tesla, last set of numbers showed a much better picture after heavy capex periods and products were finally getting to market in meaningful numbers , the SP improved. You could see something similar with Enquest with a 50% jump in price due to the revenue and earnings improvement being more visible .

We should get the net debt and average daily production to date, as of 31 October 2019 on CMD /ops update. Not long to wait , and some guidance on remaining hedges for rest of year. Some people might think the 2h average realised price might be lower than 1H, and they might also think production might be lower in 2h. Let's see if the company releases better than expected info.

A few comments on how people really feel about Apache : 62% of its reserves in Permian

I left Apache Midland voluntarily two years when it was clear to me that the Alpine High was a bust. Cashed in all my c-appy stock before it took a complete dump to the price it is now. John Christman - not impressed..

Everybody laughed at me when I quit, but I’d rather leave on my terms than wait for the impending layoff from a poorly ran E&P...

5 days ago by Anonymous
Post ID: @11SnA0Nn-3rn

The $150 million that the CEO wants to save could easily be had simply by cutting the dividend in half. He even admitted as much during the town hall, saying that the dividend is $330 million or so a year.

So he could cut the dividend and keep everyone’s jobs (including those in San Antonio), but we all know why he won’t do that.

No, he’d rather keep enriching himself and his buddies through dividend payouts—instead of through actual stock price gains like a capable CEO would do—and reduce the workforce and ultimately bankrupt the company’s future as the good people bolt for other options and the production amounts decline.

Nope, he’s going to throw one more Hail Mary pass and see if this one will save his hide. Too bad the board won’t sack him before he can get the throw off.

7 days ago by Anonymous
Post ID: @11SnA0Nn-1wsl

The CEO destroyed the value of the company as a whole. This has cost loyal employees money, not just in 401K savings but in equity. A big piece of employee compensation is in long term compensation. Stock options are worthless and have been for years. TSR's are worthless because Apache performs at the bottom of their peer groups in total shareholder value. He has failed in every aspect of his job from selling off cash flow generating assets to pay off the maturing debt to going all-in on a gas play. He is simply trying to save his own skin with his latest attempt at a re-org. He and the board need to pack their stuff and sell to a company that knows what it takes to run a premier oil and gas business.

7 days ago by Anonymous

Apache just announced they are cutting 15% of workforce.

Spare horses if anyone wants one

After the 2018 AGM, AB did say SVT makes a little bit of money , but imv nothing to write about home about .

As of today, it's still not clear how much Enquest makes for Equity.. Even the CMD might not reveal any info for an immediate re-rate, post meeting.

Brilliant at spending Billions.. same applies to creating Billions in Tax losses to carry forward to a brighter day.. but how can a few analysts be optimistic given the track record. Deliver exceptional returns in an audited set of financial accounts and then you get a re-rate.. I continue to accumulate given our key assets Kraken, Magnus and PM8 seem to be running perfectly and creating lots of positive cashflow, but that's not enough to see the SP recover at the moment.

I do hope a few IIs and analysts turn up on the day.

Time for a Beer ,

Brent :? Enjoy !

Definitely a case of so what if your making $1b EBITDA. How much profit for equity are you making? This will rerate when we see some accounts in 2020. , but the low hanging fruit is being picked right now. E.g. lots of AB buys. 20p tomorrow looks likely, even with low volume. Should really be in the mid 30s , if people believe Kraken is sorted. Investors will no longer give the company the benefit of the doubt, or put things down to teething issues. It has to deliver returns to shareholders initially via a more strengthen balance sheet and later via some form of dividend.