Member Info for hitman1a

Enq : 18.20p.

(Neil close your short, spend the money.. Reset at another level.. there are big deals happening across the world). Did you use to work for Thomas Cook ?

I was thinking the other day about AB's investment portfolios.. Say it's worth £250m ( excluding Enquest holdings)

It must be generating substantial dividends each month.. which just get reinvested into Enquest shares.
Assuming he just carries on with regular purchases, he will eventually be able to make another substantial fortune later on down the line in addition to the first one he made.. Even if we just get back to TERP, it's a very significant profit on all these additional shares. So my question is when does he expect to get back to TERP.. 3 years time ? or much sooner.

16604 shares. .. no doubt AB will follow later on the ratio of : 50 for every one of mine

Neil has been right on some things.. and the SP has performed poorly.. but they are small things..
GL.

Seems like a case of wait and see.. but even it takes 6 mths to rectify.. the effect on average annual production is quite small.. and easily replaceable with an extra well on Magnus or PM8 next year.

Neil's short is still in profit, but less than yesterday.. as expected..

Word is Bob can fix it .

The Thistle Late Life Extension (LLX) Strategy aims to recover over 35 million barrels of oil over the next 15 years from the Thistle and Deveron oil fields, using a mixture of existing well stock and new wells. A drill rig re-activation project has been completed[13] and has successfully delivered several new wells and well renovations to date with an industry leading-safety record.[14]

The Thistle LLX strategy will also ensure that the Thistle platform will be operable to 2025 and beyond. To achieve this, a series of major activities have started including initiatives to provide reliable power, improve structural and topsides integrity, upgrade safety and control systems and simplify the platform oil and production and water treatment processes. These activities are scheduled to run from 2012 to 2015,[15] dependent upon receipt of the UK Government support through the Brown Field Allowance (BFA). I guess we need an update from Enquest about the BFAs at the CMDay

Not sure I like reading it will still take a few more years for US shale to reach plateau, but the decline rates might be higher than expected and of course in order to keep production rates as high as possible via workovers/maintenance and keep up with interest and loan repayments, that all takes free cash flow which isn't readily available at these prices. Decline rates are hard to predict so a lot depends on the productivity of Tier 2 wells and whether they affect existing Tier 1 wells. Nothing new, but how much patience does Opec + have to keep going.

just found this:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Russia-Predicts-The-Death-Of-US-Shale.html

In the context of the film Gladiator, we do have some members of the OPEC + team that can't "hold the line".. and don't find the risk acceptable. I can understand why Saudi want to ensure all members do what they are told, so the further cuts actually work.. I guess there is a better chance next year with more Tier 2 shale wells coming online and US growth flat, that Brent can head to $70.

And of course earlier today, we saw Enquest joining Opec + as well.

We have China / USA phase 1 deal to sign in Chile in November.. to inspire some extra Trade confidence
We have Opec Meeting in early Dec to perhaps extend the cap for longer in 2020, and considering deeper cuts.
We have Enquest Capital Markets day. Yes this company has gone through a very difficult time with restructuring and heavy capex commitments, but the transition into one with regular earnings each half year has started. This needs to be advertised more clearly.
We have IMO 2020 improving the attraction of our product on a worldwide basis and improving the price of Brent.
And we have Neil, who has done rather well with his short, only because he got lucky with Thistle. This should reverse out tomorrow if Brent breaks $60 again. or later this week if Enquest can release another statement on the issue and a quick time frame for repair/ restarting platform.

It must be hard to identify which part of a chicken you are eating if the lights are off , is it leg or breast? , or a nugget ?

In this case Enquest have confirmed it was the offshore installation manager who made the decision to abandon ship, . It wasn’t made at HQ . I still think it was an overreaction , but why have all the workers been sent home . So it must be serious, or is it Dunlin only has say 60 beds and what do you do with an extra 150 people . That said , metal fatigue is a serious issue and so a full inspection might as well be done now, . it would had to be done at some point anyway and Enquest’s style is to carry out other work at the same time , whilst it’s shut down , ie some 2020 maintenance work. I’m sure production will resume at better rates once they restart.

Bloomberg now reporting Enquest is the global swing producer of Brent , rather than Opec or Shale . Expect Brent to rise further as Enquest’s efforts take more effect over the coming weeks ,

In other news from Shetland , some Thistle workers receive contract termination notices saving the Operator Enquest millions of Pounds in Q4, And the latest rom a pub in Aberdeen , is that Neil’s short valued at £4K, will be worth £3k tomorrow,

News Flash : Enquest joins Opec

Barkindo and Saudi thank Amjad for his help in proactively shutting down Thistle over next to nothing .

In other news Neil closes his short amid serious gloating.

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/210343/enquest-should-be-transparent-on-thistle-platform-issues-says-union-boss/

Might be easier and quicker to cut the redundant tank off the leg where it’s attached and not worry about the base plate. It can’t be of any structural use to platform stability.

all morning we thought it was going to collapse into the sea ? Now it’s just a spot weld required on a redundant part .. Neil had a good laugh today .

Sounds like Bob has it all under control

GL

Easy fix : Gorilla Glue and then a waterproof plaster .

Job done .

There was another Capital Markets day on 15 Nov 2013.. again a general review but I found the following.:

On 31 October 2013, EnQuest established a new US $1.7 billion credit facility, underwritten by BNP Paribas and Scotiabank. The facility comprises a committed amount of $1.2 billion for six years. A further $500 million is available with the lenders’ consent and additional reserves. The facility is to be used for general purposes, it replaces the existing facility put in place in Q1 2012.

I've concluded that this year's should be positive without being wildly optimistic and might involve a replacement of the existing RCF facility, That allows the funding of more Magnus type deals next year without asking us for the money..

I never did like the old business of extending really late-life assets... they have to be more "getting on a bit" type deals, but "still have plenty of mileage left."

There was a Capital Markets Day on 8 Dec 2015, which was just a general review of the business..

Option 4.