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Clintek. So you had to go back two months for that. That was a statement of fact not a remp/deramp. The buys were completed by the end of September reducing my average by 7%. Hopefully you will be successful in your ramping, when you get off the swings, and I can do the same again when the run of the mill results reveal nothing new.
As the RNS says they have to provide the results by the new date to comply with Loan Note conditions. Why would they announce anything unless it has been approved by the regulator in line with customer focus team. I expect little more than a factual trading update.
Ive just run a dummy buy/sell on HL: Buy = 12.2299 Sell = 11.614 Spread 0.6159 = 5.036% so not far off the quoted spread on LSE of 12.3 and 11.6 giving 5.7% drop in value. I bought Sylvania Platinum earlier today and that was showing 1% spread.
I've been trying to get my head around the numbers and SP for Sylvania so I've set up a spreadsheet to compare the quarterly production and accounts figures going back to end Sept 2018 and notice the following:-
29/01/21 -SP £1.02 -Accounts to 31/12/20 - Production (4EPGM) 18,363oz - Cash/share 18p - Gross Basket less AIC = $2475/oz
26/10/21 -SP £1.07 -Accounts to 30/09/21 - Production (4EPGM) 15,771oz - Cash/share 36p - Gross Basket less AIC = $1239/oz
During this period we have seen the All In Cost (AIC) per oz produced increase from $848 to $1239 & Basket less AIC halve.
Production has dropped quarterly with a 20% fall during during these 9 months.
Cash has doubled but still only represents around £0.36p per share against £0.18p nine months earlier.
In recent week the US$ has been strengthening against GBP£ so an exchange loss.
On 30th March when the Q to 30 April 21 results were posted and the SP rose to £1.24 at close - EBITDA was over $58m against below $14m (75% Fall) last Q with cash per share at 28p back then.
Uncertainty over near term production, metals price fallen 37% between 30th April and 30th September.
Are we still surprised that the SP has fallen from 124p on 30 April to 89p (28%) on Tuesday? But how low can it go?
For the Q ended 30/6/20 productivity dropped to 9055oz , EBITDA was at $4.2M (under a third of last Q), Cash was around 15p per share Basket (21p below last Q) -AIC at £1026/oz was 38% below last Q. The SP closed at £0.49 on the day that these Q figures were released.
For the following Q (28/10/20) productivity was 14% higher than the last Q. Basket-AIC $2127 (28% higher than last Q). EBITDA over $29M (118% above last Q) Cash per share 17p. The share price closed at 66p on the day of announcement.
I have not looked at the situation with mineral reserves.
With all that we know and if predictions come true (ie production increases to 100koz, Basket price rises as car production rises, new reserves are added, production costs fall, profitability rises, covid treatments come on stream (eg Synairgen) the SP will rise significantly.
Could the SP fall below 80p with such a positive outlook for the future, Bear in mind the 66p price 13 months ago and much better accounts at that time?
TT I accept what you say. If I am right, I will be reasonably happy. If you are right I will be ecstatic so I very much hope you are right. I am simply basing my outlook on the facts that we have to date.
GGP is in that period between exploration and productivity (SE Crescent) with ongoing exploration nearby and elsewhere and this is where the price tends to fall so I am expecting us to see a significant uplift in the next couple of years as we approach first production and see further exploration successes. When cash is being generated then I reckon we will see production expanded in other areas and the SP subsequently spiral upwards. I guess its just the level, combined with the timescale, of growth that we have a difference of opinion on.
I probably take a more cautious view as this investment is part of my overall pension pot which I am now drawing from so I do not wish to get carried away with any single investment.
My recent calculations based on 309koz production is that the initial annual cash flow at Havieron will be around $80M-$85M for GGPs 30% share. This was based on Feb 21 drilling results which have improved since then. First production was projected for 2023. The capital raise should seems to be designed to bring forward production but at a cost of 20% of first year cash. A large amount of ongoing exploration/drilling should increase the overall value but is all of this enough to create a Ten Bagger for a company currently valued at $650m. I have my doubts. BTW GGP represents about 5% of my overall share portfolio so I would be very happy to see the value increase by 10 in a few years but I suspect that it will be two or three at most.
The US$ price for TILS on NASDAQ is 1.61 at $1.37/£1 that £1.18 GBP. The shares issued on NASDAQ were one share for every two UK shares held so to work back to the old UK share value that's 59p per share.
Someone mentioned HL - This is their treatment of these shares:
Trading the shares on NASDAQ following the delisting
Following the delisting we’ll be unable to hold or trade the shares in the UK. If you do nothing, we’ll automatically transfer your shares to our global custodian, HSBC, so that we’re able to continue to offer you a facility to hold and sell the shares.
We’ll transfer the shares to our HSBC account on Monday 18 October 2021 to ensure it completes before the delisting is effective. The shares will continue to show in your Hargreaves Lansdown portfolio, but as the underlying custodian will be HSBC, or a sub-custodian of HSBC, there will be certain implications you should be aware of:
We’ll only allow sale instructions to be processed and all purchase requests will be rejected.
You’ll be able to sell shares over the phone by calling our Dealers on 0117 980 9800. We’ll convert the proceeds into Sterling, subject to the prevailing exchange rate at that time and our standard currency conversion fees.
You’ll be charged our telephone commission of 1% of the consideration, subject to a minimum of £20 and a maximum of £50. HSBC will also charge a transaction fee of £15 per sale, which will be factored into your sale.
You’ll be able to trade your shares on NASDAQ Stock Market once HSBC have registered them in the US market. This process will begin shortly after 21 October 2021 and is likely to take a number of weeks to complete, but we’ll work to ensure it’s concluded as quickly as possible.
The shares will be held with our third party custodian, HSBC, who may in turn hold the shares through a sub-custodian in the home country of the investment. The settlement, legal or regulatory requirements that apply to the shares may differ from those applicable in the UK. Your investment may not benefit from the same protections in the event of the insolvency of the third party that may apply under UK law. A more detailed explanation of these additional risks is provided in section A25 of our terms & conditions, which are available at hl.co.uk/terms-and-conditions
Foreign exchange charge
Value of trade FX charge
First £5,000 1.00%
Next £5,000 0.75%
Next £10,000 0.50%
Over £20,000 0.25%
I have a small holding worth about £2400. The cost of selling will be around £63 at the current price so I will be holding for some time.
Just wondering what news you are expecting?
TRX gave a detailed update just after the half year results about a month ago. Hopefully they are getting on with sales and progressing their business plan. I don't expect significant news for another five months or so.
Wyndrum, plenty of patience here. Ive been holding and adding since November last year with the odd swing trade thrown in. Trying to decide if a a swing sale is now appropriate or if "the only way is up....baby"!!
Is this the section being referred to? Do warranties mean that Warrants could be issued or is someone getting mixed up?
"The Company has entered into a Placing Agreement with Shard Capital Partners LLP ('Shard') under which Shard has agreed to use its reasonable endeavours to procure placees for the Placing Shares at the Placing Price. The Placing has not been underwritten.
The Placing Agreement contains warranties in favour of Shard given by the Company with respect to its business and certain matters connected with the Placing. In addition, the Company has given customary indemnities to Shard in connection with the Placing and its performance of services in relation to the Placing. Shard has the right to terminate the Placing Agreement in specified circumstances."
To get an accurate SP on HL you have to do a dummy buy/sell. The current price is still showing as 32.5 to sell and 33.5 to buy but if you trade its 36.25 & 36.70. Its always like this and is misleading & bloody frustrating!!