Member Info for highlandmatt

Given the record, access to info, willingness and time to research and share that research, I wouldn't bet against GRH.

Thanks Keith.

Question for those in the industry, would (or could) you set casing to protect the well integrity against unstable sands / borehole washouts?

Hi Silverfoil. I should have said 'market'. It wasn't a question to the BB on everyone's personal strategy. I do find it frustrating when I have calculated fair value for something and the market sells off for unrelated reasons.

Next question, will folks buy the discoveries to date and the potential greater finds that have been derisked, or sell in to the drill to bank profits and derisk against an issue?

I think PG had swiped the prime acreage.

That is what PG has intimated - the selling of all or part of the subsidiary operating company, which would include the whole licence area.

Yes Bowles, I would imagine the price is rising with every development (drilling or financing).

LiH - Yep, that's where the 10% royalty came in - to give us that upside.

Like that 500,000 share one? Or are you thinking bigger?

Another rough calculation would be PG statement before the Mou3 success regarding the minimum price of discussions re Morocco. He said $150-200m plus 10%. Even if we assume the bottom end of the range (when in reality we are now beyond that in a good way), that's still £120m in immediate cash. Say PRD keeps £20m for T&T etc, £100m special dividend divided by 450m shares (PRD owes some back to PG and Lonny) = 22p per share. $200m = 29p.

Even that scenario would retain an interest in future Morocco revenues, which could be large indeed. So selling below these figures makes no sense at all. Back to sitting on my hands.

Share price has generally been less than 2p for last year, so not sure when you bought in? 18months ago, different story.

Anyway, if you thought it was good value at say 2.5-3p, what do you think of it now at less than 2p? Value the business, not the share price. If you believe the business is further forward than when you appraised it, and the SP is down, logically it is a better investment now, and you should buy more.

Having said that, there are lots of good businesses at discounts at the moment. For my mind, I'm not selling. Either the business will be sold (potentially for hundreds of millions) or the license and royalty revenues will be paying large dividends. Anything around £10m mcap or less is a bargain.

Thank you Jimmy as ever for your valuable input. Yes, Mou fan only. As an amateur, I'm trying to give myself a logical (to me) reminder not to sell too early, and I need an evidenced quantifiable number in my own mind for that. The reasoning for doubling the gas in place figure was based on your excellent work.

I'm trying not to get too carried away with potential valuations, as the numbers become life changing for me, and I'm slightly scared that I'm going to mess this opportunity up!

1. From the CPR. "The 25% chance of proceeding to development reflects the remaining production, transport, legal, contractual and environmental issues relating to a large-scale gas to power project. The chance of commerciality for a pilot CNG development supplying lower volumes of gas to industrial markets is likely to be considerably higher."

2. Now we have proven quantities of gas, I consider that there are no barriers to a CNG plant, only time.

From CPR - ProspectUndiscovered gas in place (BCF)595

Predator interest75%

Net to Predator 446BCF

Recovery Factor 66%

Unrisked recoverable resource (BCF) 295

Chance of commerciality 25%

Risked resource (BCF)74

NPV per BCF of discovered gas (US$m)1.99

Risked Value (ENPV US$m)148

Now double the GIP and remove the commerciality discount, therefore x8.

Therefore risked value in region of $1.2bn or £930m.

Say we only get 25-50% of that for a sale, 50p-£1 a share is on the cards.

Long way to go yet. I'm trying to stay strong and hold tight.

Sorry, 800k -1m shares.

Ah, that's a different question. Obviously 20p would be preferable to 10p. However, I wonder how much of yesterday's rise was folk buying in post raise for the next funded drill? Not arguing, just an interesting debate.

Anyway, if you have 8-10m shares, you have every right to take a keen interest in dilution and the share price. I have a lot less, and take the placings as an opportunity to use my salary to buy at a discount.

But what price would the raise be without the news first? Placees want a discount. It's all hypothetical anyway. Let's just be pleased with the way things are going.

Yes, but if you put out an RNS stating you need funds and are sorting a raise, will folk buy the news, or wait a week or two?

Just to play Devil's Advocate, would the SP have risen as much? Would the raise have been at a lower price, and therefore dilution greater?

I don't know. What I do know is Paul and Lonny are moving at pace to prove up as much as possible as quickly and cheaply as possible. That has to be a good thing for shareholders.