RE: Switch to blue17 May 2024 22:32
I won't claim to be a learned poster, but you have raised a very fair and pertinent question, and not received an answer, so I will try.
1. The declines seem to be what is concerning most folk.
2. Some don't like the Trin deal due to dilution.
3. Are the declines ugly? Coho seems to be levelling off, and the thinking is Cascadura 1 will do the same in time.
4. It must be remembered how good Cascadura 1ST is. Even with decline these are still big numbers and very profitable. Just not as large as folk (including myself) thought given the initial flow rates.
My conclusion, for what it is worth, is that Casca 1 will provide sufficient cash flow to get Cas 2 and 3 on line. Capex to that point is relatively minimal. At that point we should be over 60mmcfd. The two Coora wells should add extra oil production in the meantime. Q3/Q4 will see a step change, even before the Trin merger adds another boost. Lots to look forward to., and undervalued vs peers at the current price on both current and future production. There may be some more selling out of frustration over the next quarter, or maybe this is the bottom. That I don't know.