Member Info for highlandmatt

Jones. If you are expecting more news this week, I suspect you will be disappointed.

This still feels like Jay's original plan of organic growth from revenues is out of the window (partly due to KN1 issues). The Zubairs have looked at the demand and the assets and said 'get a bigger team, and get on with it'. Jay bemoans lack of working capital for concurrent projects, Zubairs say 'we'll sort that for a %'. Feels like a vote of confidence to me - reinforcing succcess. The next 6 months will be exciting.

Sells outweighing buys. Could it just be that folks are thinking their money will work harder for them elsewhere?

I was just got to a figure roughly in that ballpark as well. And to think we were throwing it away!

@ Power. Who is that question directed at? If it was me, I was simply simply responding to your request for reasons to hold. Net Asset Value would be another. https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2018/03/14/kenmare-unloved-unmoved/ A takeover would be interesting. Previous interest from Iluka was at a much higher level when the company and market was in much worse shape.

Market Capital may be justified by 2017 net profit of EBITDA $60m and net profit $20m. However, 2018 is expected to be EBITDA $100m and net profit $60m. 10 times earnings would give you $600m / �400m. 2019 is forecast to be better again.

https://www.oilandgas360.com/base-resources-limited-quarterly-activities-report-march-2018/ Prices on the up, supply tightness to continu. Just raised $75m by share offer to acquire a new project, which will require development capital.

His point was that there were some large trades, which there were. No need to jump down his throat BF.

Output is stable - Fact. Prices are higher - Fact. Investment has happened in equipment - Fact. Debt is now lower - Fact. Capacity is increasing and Monazite stream has been identified - Fact. The mine and company are profitable and becoming more so. Yet, the current market capital is the same as after the MD and lower than NAV - another fact. On the face of it there is no logic to the current SP. Which leads me to conclude that either there is something we don't know, or the market has it wrong. If there is no great buying pressure, and most shareholders are holding until further up the cycle, has this just been affected by a few who have lost patience outweighing those that see the potential? I say potential, as I think most would agree that �19m net profit on the NAV is not a great return. But the BOD could have not invested in machinery and made twice as much profit, which I think has been overlooked. I am confident that the prospects are good. I participated in the OO at this price, so as funds are available, have invested again at this price as I believe the company to be in better shape than then, and undervalued. You only have to look at the recent M&A activity to see what might happen if someone decided they needed their own long life mine.

Presumably the market has viewed the headline numbers as underwhelming, and decided that there are better investments elsewhere.

In basic terms, using conservative shipping volume to account for lower grades:- 900kt Ilmenite @180 = 162m; 70kt Zircon @ 800 = 56m; = $218m revenue for 2018. Plenty of headroom for 20m of debt repayment and still some good profit numbers going forward. If those numbers are 1mt for Ilmenite, and 80kt Zircon (or a better mix), then things start to look a lot rosier. 2019, with the extra 20% capacity on one WCP, and Monazite stream, starts to look very interesting (as much as digging sand can be!).

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4156984-kenmare-resources-kmrpf-q4-2017-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single Two interesting sections for me:- Page 4 of the deck - "We are already on site with the 20% expansion of our Concentrator Plant B, that's on budget and on schedule for delivery in the later part of this year. And that project is going well." Investment made or underway - benefits to come. MCs summing up - "We are on sight with development of the monazite stream as we look forward to completing towards the end of the year and first shipments early in 2019". New revenue stream to come. Avoided the $100m capex for WCP C. Long term prospects are good.

So, Revenue up to $208m, $20m spend on updating machinery. Cash flow up to $60m from $6m last year. Net profit now $19m. However, not much delta between H1 and H2 2017, although that could be argued to be a good result with one ship in dock in Q3. Prices of Ilmenite holding, Zircon still increasing, so revenue still going up. Debt payments (and cash sweep) commencing in 2018. Solid but no more than was expected given the pricing signals. Hoping for more on Zircon pricing, as that gives more headroom and adds gloss to the profit figures. Finance costs should decrease over time (2019+) as debt reduced, increasing profitability. Possibly another couple of years patience required. Sigh.

AEX seem happy with the CPR RNS today.

Interesting price visibility, although the BASE product mix is different, it gives an idea.

Syabilisation and growth next. A better article giving a fuller picture. I'm guessing we've been spending money on exploring the options for the way ahead. http://www.miningmx.com/top-story/31299-kenmare-study-capital-projects-2018-volumes-fade/

Syabilisation and growth next. A better article giving a fuller picture. I'm guessing we've been spending money on exploring the options for the way ahead. http://www.miningmx.com/top-story/31299-kenmare-study-capital-projects-2018-volumes-fade/

Hmm. I think you've summarised it very well Skid. Average production costs now under $130/t (as expected, good). Shipments topping 1mt again. But change in cash not as positive as predicted (hoped). Cause? Either:- 1. Lower income than expected or 2. Greater spending (on what? A1 - Greater lag than anticipated (H1 worse than we thought?, H2 not as good as we hoped?); poorer negotiation, or we just don't have accurate info?; A2 - Dry mining? Forecast significant outgoings....debt payment ($10m in Feb from memory) and WCP-B upgrade $20m = $30m. So, making progressing on paying down, upgrading plant, but not as much or as fast as we'd hoped. Damn. Next year Rodney....

..for entertainment. This is the most solid share in my portfolio, but this board is very quiet. Happy new year all.

I'm sticking with AEX for now - feel there is big news to come over the next few months.