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$920M short on oil. 70 minutes before the Axios report.

This is now the 4th time this year.

📌 March 23: $500M short — 15 min before Trump delayed Iran strikes

(Source: Reuters / CBS News)

📌 April 7: $950M short — hours before the US-Iran ceasefire

(Source: Reuters)

📌 April 17: $760M short — 20 min before Hormuz declared open

(Source: Reuters)

📌 May 6: $920M short — 70 min before the Axios Iran deal report

Same pattern. 4 times. Bigger each time.

This isn’t trading. This is a schedule.

Who knew?

https://x.com/AlaliQasem/status/2052034102388281791

The White House believes it may be nearing an initial agreement with Iran on a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending hostilities and opening the way for broader nuclear negotiations, according to a report by Axios on Wednesday.

The proposed framework reportedly includes:

1: An Iranian commitment to pause uranium enrichment activities

2: Potential U.S. sanctions relief

3: The release of frozen Iranian assets

4: Reciprocal easing of restrictions affecting transit through the Strait of Hormuz

https://channel8.com/english/news/57527

#breaking: iranian state media says that tehran has "handed over the text of its latest negotiation plan" to ****stani mediators on late thursday so that it may be delivered to washington

https://x.com/thenewregion/status/2050191007795269776

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/911427/iran-open-to-talks-but-rejects-imposition-as-tensions-with-us-persist

A report issued by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for 2026 on Friday (May 1, 2026) revealed a decline in the proven oil reserves of a number of countries, led by Iraq, which topped the list of the most depleted countries during 2025.

Economist Ziad al-Hashimi quoted the OPEC report 2026 in a post on his Facebook account, followed by "Baghdad Today" that "Iraq is leading the decline in global oil reserves, as 8 countries recorded a decline in their oil reserves, which reduced the impact of the increases achieved by the other 8 countries in the total global oil reserves in 2025."

He added, "Iraq came at the top of the list, as its reserves recorded an annual decline of 5.019 billion barrels, bringing the total reserves to 140 billion barrels by the end of last year."

He continued, "The United States followed with an annual decline rate of 1.141 billion barrels, with its proven reserves stable at 41.9 billion barrels, and Norway's oil reserves during the past year decreased by 993 million barrels, reaching 5.91 billion barrels."

Proven oil reserves are one of the most important strategic indicators that OPEC and international institutions rely on to assess the position of countries in the global energy market, as they reflect the size of economically extractable resources according to current technologies and prices.

https://baghdadtoday.news/298306-2026.html

The Hormuz crisis isn’t just a supply shock.

It’s a chemistry crisis.

The world’s refineries were built around Gulf crude.

There is no substitute sitting on a shelf.

That’s why this time is genuinely different.

This is why $122 Brent understates the problem.

It’s not just about volume.

It’s about the right barrels reaching the right refineries.

Asian refineries built for Arab Medium can’t run Texas Light.

When the right barrel disappears —

no price is too high to get it back.

Here’s the trap refineries are in right now:

— Built over decades specifically for Gulf crude

— Can’t easily switch to light US shale

— Can’t switch to heavy Canadian crude fast enough

— Retrofitting takes years and billions

They don’t have years.

They need the right barrels this week.

https://x.com/AlaliQasem/status/2049835060971417774

Iran warned on Tuesday (April 28, 2026) that submarine cables in the Strait of Hormuz are a weak point for the region's digital economy, raising concerns about the potential for attacks on this important infrastructure.

Geopolitical and energy analyst Masha Kotkin said in a press statement that "damaging cables means slowing down or interrupting the internet, disrupting e-commerce, delaying financial transactions, and the consequent economic repercussions of all these disruptions."

The narrow waterway, which is already a chokehold for global oil shipments, is as important to the digital world as it is to the bottom of a number of fibre optic cables connecting countries from India and Southeast Asia to Europe via the Gulf states and Egypt.

Submarine cables are "fiber-optic or electrical cables on the seabed to transmit data and power," and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the United Nations agency specialized in digital technology, says that "submarine cables carry about 99% of the world's internet data."

It also transmits communications and electricity between countries, and is essential for cloud services and online communications.

Gulf states, notably the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have invested billions of dollars in artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure to diversify their economies away from oil, and the two countries have set up national AI companies to serve customers across the region, all of which rely on submarine cables to transmit data at lightning speeds.

Major cables passing through the Strait of Hormuz include the Asia-Africa-Europe 1 (AAE-1) cable, which connects Southeast Asia to Europe via Egypt with access points in the UAE, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the Falcon network connecting India and Sri Lanka to the Gulf countries, Sudan and Egypt, and the Gulf International Bridge cable system that connects all Gulf countries, including Iran.

https://baghdadtoday.news/298141-.html

us media reported on tuesday (april 28, 2026), that the positions of tehran and washington may not be as far apart as they appear in public, in light of indications that a phased understanding can be reached starting with the opening of the strait of hormuz and the postponement of the iranian nuclear file.

"the absence of a second round of negotiations in ****stan does not necessarily reflect a large gap between the two parties," the outlets quoted sources familiar with the mediation efforts between the two sides, noting that intensive diplomatic contacts continue behind the scenes.

according to the sources, the proposals focused on a phased agreement, which includes, in its first phase, a return to pre-war conditions, and the reopening of the strait of hormuz to international navigation without restrictions or fees.

it added that the file of iran's nuclear program, which has been one of the most prominent causes of tension, may be deferred to later stages of negotiations.

https://baghdadtoday.news/298112-.html

Received from A J Bell, AFTER THE BELL🤣

Even if a ceasefire is signed TODAY:

— Floating tankers need 30–40 days to offload

— VLCCs rerouted to the US need 3+ months to return

— Onshore ME storage needs to drain ~200M bbls first

The supply gap doesn’t care about peace deals

Cumulative storage lost from Hormuz closure:

End of April → 1.2 billion bbls

End of May → 1.59 billion bbls

End of June → 1.98 billion bbls

This is 4x larger than any supply outage in history.

There is no playbook for this.

The cycle playing out right now:

↑ Crude prices

→ Compressed refining margins

→ Lower refined product output

→ Product storage draws

→ Higher margins again

→ Higher throughput

→ ↑ Crude prices again

Rinse. Repeat. Until something breaks.

https://x.com/AlaliQasem/status/2046260617388933289

reuters quoted a ****stani security source on monday (april 20, 2026) as saying that the ****stani army chief held a call with us president donald trump on the developments of the strait of hormuz file and the ongoing talks.

according to reuters, the source said that "the ****stani army chief spoke with trump and told him that the blockade of the strait of hormuz is an obstacle to talks."

"the us president said he would consider the advice of the ****stani army chief," he added.

https://baghdadtoday.news/297611-.html

Energy Agency (IEA) Director Fatih Birol confirmed on Friday (April 17, 2026) that it will take about two years to restore energy production lost as a result of the war, according to the agency's estimates.

"The recovery period will vary from one country to another," Birol said in a press interview, noting that "some countries will need longer than others," noting that "in Iraq, for example, it may take much longer compared to Saudi Arabia."

"The agency's estimates generally indicate that it could take up to two years to return to pre-war production levels, given the technical and logistical challenges facing the region's energy sector," he said.

https://baghdadtoday.news/297417-.html

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) – On Wednesday, a source within Iraq’s Coordination Framework informed Kurdistan24 that Nouri al-Maliki has agreed to withdraw from the race for the position of prime minister and has instead nominated Basim al-Badri as a candidate.

According to the source, al-Maliki is expected to present the proposal during a Coordination Framework meeting scheduled for 8:00 p.m. tonight. However, no consensus has yet been reached within the bloc regarding al-Badri’s candidacy.

The source added that finalizing al-Badri’s nomination will require either full agreement among Coordination Framework members or approval through a majority vote.

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/908233/maliki-withdraws-from-pm-race-proposes-basim-al-badri-as-alternative-candidate

iranian foreign ministry spokesperson esmail baghaei said on wednesday that “numerous messages” have been exchanged between iran and the us through ****stan since sunday - state media

“until the entirety of an understanding is agreed upon, it is impossible to talk about accepting or rejecting its details, especially on an issue as important as war and peace between iran and the united states,” baghaei said

trump says iran war "close to over,” signals push for broad deal

https://x.com/thenewregion/status/2044382545740009518

https://www.basnews.com/en/babat/910864

On Tuesday (April 14, 2026), political researcher Ali al-Jubouri commented on the possibility of using Erbil as a political pressure tool to export oil as a political pressure tool, in light of the Kurdistan Democratic Party's boycott of the election of the president of the republic.

Al-Jubouri said in a statement to "Baghdad Today" that the Kurdistan Region theoretically has a margin for maneuvering through the oil file, whether through a partial disruption of production or the redirection of exports, but the direct and widespread use of this card remains a complex and costly option.

He explained that oil has historically been the focus of the dispute between the federal government and the regional government, especially with regard to resource management, export mechanisms and revenue sharing, which makes it a potential pressure tool in political crises, but the current circumstances are more complicated due to the intertwining of legal and contractual obligations with foreign companies and importers.

He added that any escalation in this file will face major challenges, most notably the region's need for financial revenues to cover salaries and operational expenses, as well as international pressures pushing for the stability and depoliticization of energy flows.

https://baghdadtoday.news/297178-.html

Even when this war ends — oil will NOT go back to $60.

The new floor: above $80/bbl

Why?

🔴 Hormuz risk is now permanent

🔴 Insurance + logistics costs structurally higher

🔴 Inventories need years to rebuild

🔴 Refiners repricing for uncertainty

This isn’t just a supply shock.

It’s a structural reset of the entire oil market.

The pre-war world is gone. 🛢️

Goldman. Citi. UBS. All agree.

Higher for longer isn’t a forecast anymore.

It’s the new reality. 💥

https://x.com/AlaliQasem/status/2041829120196112822

Iranian FM Abbas Aragchi said on Wednesday that Tehran’s ceasefire terms are "clear and explicit," noting that Washington should choose between a "ceasefire or continued war via Israel" and that the US cannot have both - Statement

"The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the US court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments," he wrote on X

https://x.com/thenewregion/status/2041934827000090756

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) - The ink on the Iran-US ceasefire had barely dried before a new fault line cracked open — one that cuts to the heart of whether the truce can hold at all.

On Wednesday, Iranian officials warned that if the ceasefire does not extend to all fronts of the conflict, Tehran will harden both its military and diplomatic positions. Ibrahim Rezaei, spokesman of the National Security Committee in Iran's parliament, issued a stark ultimatum in response to Israel's intensifying strikes on Lebanon: "Either there is a ceasefire on all fronts, or there is no ceasefire on any front."

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/906695/iran-warns-all-fronts-or-no-ceasefire-as-trump-says-lebanon-and-hezbollah-not-part-of-iran-deal

https://baghdadtoday.news/296828-.html

ERBIL (Kurdistan24) — Gas production has resumed at the Khor Mor Gas Field, a key energy hub supplying power stations across the Kurdistan Region, officials confirmed on Wednesday, with electricity output expected to stabilize within hours.

A source from the Kurdistan Regional Government’s Ministry of Natural Resources told Kurdistan24 that production at the field—operated by Dana Gas—has restarted and is being gradually ramped up.

The phased increase in gas output is expected to boost national electricity supply, with officials indicating that conditions should return to normal within the next 12 hours.

https://www.kurdistan24.net/en/story/906584/khor-mor-gas-field-resumes-production-as-erbil-power-supply-set-to-stabilize

Goldman Sachs:

China GDP impact: -20bps

US GDP impact: -40bps

The US is TWICE as affected as China by the oil shock.

China’s preparation:

✅ Oil = only 28% of energy mix

✅ 1.2B barrels in reserves = 110 days

✅ 40% renewable electricity

✅ Alternative suppliers: Russia, Australia, Malaysia

Now ask yourself:

Who has more incentive to end this war quickly?

And who benefits from letting it drag on? 👀

https://x.com/AlaliQasem/status/2039456767281655812

“The root cause of interruptions to navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is the United States and Israel’s illegal military operations against Iran,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning told reporters in Beijing.

https://channel8.com/english/news/55663