Member Info for HFWizard

On the back of the comments below I have had a quick look at CLIN results. Looks more like Rylidans numbers are closer the mark. . . . . @ notrac where do you get the 70m from please? . . . . . . Also having read the July CLIN end of year trading update I see much to be excited about. I think it's SamJ (as always) correctly points out that these are a perfect marriage. CLIN already has a global network with Asia and Africa already growing very strongly. Also America mentioned in the update. So additional markets for QP's existing range as well as its forthcoming products. . . . . .what I have not done is follow this through into a calculation to see what price I would accept.

So the most useful thing i found today was in the 9.22am RNS. Options at a strike of £1.40 anybody??? for reference these are for the product development director. Exercise Period: On the mid-market closing share price being greater than £1.40 for an average of 90 days or on a change of control. The options shall lapse if the target has not been achieved on or before 31 December 2021 and the exercise period runs from the vesting date until 9 November 2026 ..................so this got me thinking a little more. here is the annual report http://ir.quantumpharmaceuticalgroup.com/archive/reports/ar2017.pdf on page 43 Chriss Rigg also has 6,000,000 options at a strike of £1.40. yes 6million!!! .......all great news in my book.. . . . . .all those expecting £1.00 . . . .i think its time to expect a little more . . .

Agree wth sage and SamJ on the other thread. this is a flat position and would be taken by a client of Sigma, not Sigma themselves. thay are common place and called "pay to hold swaps". Its where a client will take the equivalent position long and short in the same stock. the broker will charge a fee to hold this for them. its usually undertaken when the underlying client expects a price fall. as they can liquidate the long half of the trade when the timing is right. the theory behind it is that the client can achieve a short position in a share where liquidity is normally not big enough for them to get a sizeable short on. Anywho if this takes a tick up then i expect this will get unwound.

agree moneypenny. reduced earning this year. next year dependant on a reversal in coal price. not a good position to be in when you companies fortunes are dependant on a reversal of a commodity price. ""The first quarter of FY18 has been a challenging one given the sustained high seaborne thermal coal prices that have impacted our sector as a whole. Although consensus prices for the second half of the year are expected to be lower, we anticipate a reduction in earnings for FY18 in the absence of a material reversal in the coal price.".. ....also whilst great to get large consumers of the energy its achieved at a reduced rate. ....i know seems like value to a lot of people. i was saying the same thing around 100p. been following this for years. truth is its only worth what people will pay. could be a painful several months for holders. . . .

if they have £1m available. then they have wages and othwer overheads to pay too. they will need to come back to the market for a round of cash then?

BigM / All, what do we make of the £2m figure for development? More than we have in the bank and still not inclusive of lease financing.

rylidan, samj, robins. I agree with you all, l sub £1 is unacceptable. However i would expect the current board execute their plan would yield more than this within the year. I would happily vote against. I wonder what the board think? Can they only comment after an offer has been made? Or could they comment now if they wish? other questions going round my head are how much does Clinigen know about the pipeline and its value (that perhaps we dont). Specifically the called large product mentioned in the half year results.

So what do we all make of these results?

I don't buy into this fall at all. topped up. seen shake outs like this tons of times. I am betting this is another

Hi robins, I hadn't been on that section before. very good investor relations site actually presentation http://ir.quantumpharmagroup.com/archive/presentations/Interims_HY31Jul2017.pdf full results (which I will read later) http://ir.quantumpharmaceuticalgroup.com/content/investor/latest_results.asp

Just one last thing before I stop my rants. not that would accept £1. I still believe that is too low. I personally would like to see us stay independent and see just how far the board can take this business.

@ chris.., robins, Anything less than a pound is scandalous. Apologies for the restatement but these are the bull points. point 1 and 2 got restated today by the RNS. 5 looks to be ahead of our expectations! 1. Revenue growth on the remaining business 2. That profit margins are going to be as good as stated 3. That new products are bought on-line to drive the growth 4. Focus on products where QP has an advantage 5. New export markets brought on line (perhaps not imminent but certainly over next 12 months I am hopeful) 6. Better management of balance sheet and debt 7. Board heavily invested and overseeing management.

SamJSung, I don't look have a facility to look at the level 2's but surely the last few days activity is a little off. only PI sells on a strong results day! Something does not add up. All I do know is that this all is currently playing into Clinigen's hands. We also know they are stakebuilding through a couple of brokers. All a bit fishy.

Agreed. Some highlights below. All these good results and so much of the benefit still to be received. Let's see how price reacts today and what Clinigen's next move is. . . Unaudited results for the half year ended 31 July 2017 ('the period' or 'H1 2018') Financial highlights -- Revenue increased 13% to GBP36.2m (H1 2017: GBP32.1m) reflecting strong growth from the Niche Pharmaceuticals division ('Niche') -- Adjusted EBITDA increased 23% to GBP5.7m (H1 2017: GBP4.7m) -- Niche transformed, contributing 28% of Group adjusted EBITDA (before central costs) at GBP1.8m (H1 2017: loss of GBP0.2m) -- Statutory operating profit increased 74% to GBP3.6m (H1 2017: GBP2.1m) -- Net debt reduced to GBP11.9m (H1 2017: GBP23.8m)

So the RNS today show that Clingen are stake building. Perhaps gobbling as many up as possible before these results? I expect these results to be strong but more importantly we are still gathering momentum and in the ascendancy. Someone below mentioned EBITDA. Do you think we will get EBITDA at the half year stage?

Thanks for replies robins and rylidan. Do we know where we can get management expectations from? I would just like to see what their estimates are. Very excited about update on Tuesday. I expect they will be strong and slow Clinigen that they need a solid offer if they want a part of this!

Thanks notrac. Latest statement referring EBITDA From recent RNS Trading during the period has continued to be strong and as a result Group Adjusted EBITDA for the half year ended 31 July 2017 is expected to be in line with management expectations as updated on 26 June 2017; -- The strategic plan to focus and simplify the Group is driving tangible benefits and the first phase is now complete. As anticipated this has led to a significant improvement in financial performance and an overall higher margin business; -- Decisive actions have transformed Niche Pharmaceuticals into a highly profitable division which is now contributing significantly to Group Adjusted EBITDA through successful product portfolio performance with a healthy and focussed development pipeline; My take is that if profit looks to be circa 10m on track for the full year. PE ratio of 17 will get us to 100p. Somebody below suggested no more than 80p. But I think this board will know that if they keep doing what they are doing 80p is quite low. For me this interest is flattering in QP but only at the right price. I would be happy and I would expect this board to look well north of 100p (I am actually hopeful for more). Easy to get carried away with the excitement of an offer. But I would be happy if the board turned it down if it's not quite right.

Hi Rylidan, I add a few more areas that i believe make this the best turnaround play i know . . . 1. Revenue growth on the remaining business 2. That profit margins are going to be as good as stated 3. That new products are bought on-line to drive the growth 4. Focus on products where QP has an advantage 5. New export markets brough on line (perhaps not imminent but certainly over next 12 months I am hopeful) 6. Better management of balance sheet and debt 7. Board hevaily invested and overseeing management.

agree. really good update. plan on track / ahead. profitability increased. board believe higher value in pipeline than previously. As the pipeline progresses through its various stages of development the Board's confidence in its deliverability and value has increased; I dont eben think we need to wait until xmas. The August H1 results should give us more information on margins.

Ahead of update on Wednesday here is the last trading update: Trading Update Trading across the combined Niche and Specials divisions in the early months of the year has been ahead of plan and the Board expect this outperformance to offset the majority of the disposed contribution from Biodose Services in the current financial year. Commenting on the strategic disposal, Chris Rigg, Chief Executive Officer of Quantum, said: "The sale of Biodose Services positions Quantum as a simplified and focussed pharma business with a higher quality of earnings. It is particularly pleasing that we have been able to demonstrate a quick path to profitability for Biodose Services and exit it to a buyer who can bring greater emphasis and better synergies to that business. The strong trading performance in the first few months of the year means that we expect to be slightly ahead of management expectations for the remaining Group and look forward to providing a further trading update on 9 August 2017."