Member Info for hey_arnold

For anyone investing for 12-months, please ignore my comments as they are not relevant to you guys :)

I am back in cash at the mo as I'm concerned about Odey and Co's reaction to a drop in oil price.

Shell have cut their dividend for the first time since WW2 and BP have had s**t results. That's why Tullow is down today. The sector is under pressure and if the biggest guys are struggling then it is assumed the smaller ones definitely will be. Although Tullow is hedged.

correlation

IMHO Cushing is as full as it will get. Smaller builds are evidence that there's no room for larger builds. However I think the market will misinterpret this as a sign demand is recovering.

So only one result here, oil moves higher.

Comes out in an hour.

Hoping for a smaller cushing build than the market expects or a cushing draw.

Could be a further bullish catalyst for oil.

Cant believe refinitiv messed that up. idiots.

Patience is key if you are already invested.

"Every time the price jumps up I get excited that we are reaching a turning point. Then it drops and I feel disheartened. Is this the upturn, or are we still in the middle of a stock market storm?"

It was shorts covering their position, I assume because WTI and Brent rallied along with Equity markets. I think investors are expecting continuing policy responses globally which should keep equities rallying. The physical oil situation remains a dog, so its difficult to call whether Tullows share price will start moving up or not.

all oil stocks are up, but not by the same amount.

Why's it up? cant find any news?

It feels like some shorts closing given the aggressive moves up in the price. However given they only increased a few days ago, it seems strange they would buy back. I guess it might not be the same shorters.

Anyone have a view on whether today's price action is shorts taking profit or long only funds buying?

Year-on-year US rig counts are down 526. US shale is closing.

So would you go long at these levels berni?

They are investing the money in contracts between July 2020 and June 2021. The June-July 2020 spread is widening sharply

rolling it into further down the curve futures contracts.

USO are rolling the entire June position into futures contracts which I think is partly why WTI is tanking so hard again today (along with the obvious lack of demand).

The reason this would tank the June contract is because USO held 137m barrels equivalent of June WTI as of Monday, or 24 per cent of total June contracts outstanding on CME Group’s New York Mercantile Exchange.

Don't you think what you are saying is already priced in. I get the picture is bearish but prices also reflect this. I think everyone realises this wont be sorted until Q1-21. That's why buying at these levels isn't stupid in my opinion.

What are peoples investment time horizon on here out of interest?

Mine is 12-18months.