Member Info for hey_arnold

I bought at 1281

I have taken a punt.

Normally this does well on strong upward index moves on the FTSE and the Dow. I expect the Americans to go bid on this when the market opens and this should move up

There are no shorts larger than 0.5% on Carnival, the market obviously don't currently expect further fund raising.

Some of us are taking advantage dandino :)

Personally I believe that debt holders will be helpful in providing covenant holidays given the circumstances of Covid-19 and the fact they wont want to own all those cruise liners if they were to let CCL go bust.

I think this will get another boost on Friday once the debt terms are discussed with JPM.

I hope not too many people sold out this morning. Congrats on the profit. Wish i lived somewhere where I could go for a swim and invest.

It amazes me how the UK market sold this down 10% and then the US market comes in and back up we go. Are they looking at the same results... V strange.

Good summary Finderskeepers :)

JPMorgan bankers are scheduling a series of calls for lenders on Thursday and Friday with Carnival management to provide a credit update, according to a person familiar with the matter.

- 2Q adjusted loss per share for the second quarter of $3.30 vs. earnings per share 66c y/y.
- 2Q revenue $700 million, -86% y/y
- Corp 2Q Adj. Net Loss $2.4B
- 2Q Cash Burn Rate Generally in Line With Expectations
- 2Q Ended With $7.6B of Available Liquidity
- Intends to accelerate removal of ships in Fiscal 2020
- Corp Total Customer Deposits at May 31 $2.9B
- Has Prelim Pacts for Disposal of 6 Ships in 90 Days
- Expects a net loss on both a U.S. GAAP and adjusted basis for the second half of 2020
- Carnival 2Q includes $2.0 billion of non-cash impairment charges

Carnival says it has reduced capital expenditures and estimates $300 million of non-newbuild capital expenditures during the second half of 2020, which largely consists of previously committed expenditures

Company expects to resume guest operations, after collaboration with both government and health authorities, in a phased manner, with specific ships and brands returning to service over time
Company allowing flexibility for cruises that have been canceled saying as of May 31, 2020, approximately half of guests affected have requested cash refunds
Company estimates that its ongoing ship operating and administrative expenses will be approximately $250 million per month once all ships are in paused status

agreed. I'm long.

Berenberg note came out today.

been a key part of the equity story over the past decade
Valuation unattractive, trading 23x consensus 2022 P/E, a 137% premium to 2019 levels

Carnival Valuation ‘Highly Unattractive,’ Berenberg Cuts to Sell

Carnival’s valuation is “highly unattractive” and its capital CCL US Equity
structure looks “unsustainable” and in need of an injection of new equity, Graphic Dashboard»
Berenberg says in a note cutting its rating on the cruise operator’s
London-listed shares to sell from hold.
Rating for Carnival Plc shares cut to sell from hold and PT
slashed to 800p from 1,180p; rating on Carnival Corp, the New
York-listed shares, stays at sell with PT down to $10 vs $14.50
Risk of further suspensions of cruises remains high after
Norwegian’s move this week, net debt is set to rise significantly
and breakeven analysis suggests Carnival needs a high
proportion of its fleet sailing to generate positive Ebitda, analyst
Stuart Gordon writes
Leverage will be unsustainable and would not expect
enough cash flow to make shareholder returns until at
least 2025, an important issue given its returns have

The market is pricing in Carnival to start sailing when Norwegian Cruises do, hence the drop. I think for it to drop further it would need to delay the start date to after Nov.

Today