Member Info for Hexam

"The only advice I would give anyone here is to make your own decisions based on your own situation. The type who’ll tell you something is about to moon, when’s it’s 6 foot under is not your friend"

Agreed - but neither is the type who insist it is already 6 feet under when it is still breathing (albeit very raggedly). Plenty of those today.

It's a sad reflection of human nature that this forum has attracted over 1,000 posts today, many of from posters not seen at all on this board until recently and it seems here just to gloat, revel in watching a 'car crash' and others' misfortunes, take some sort of dubious moral high ground or brag about how much they've made on it by day-trading whilst others have suffered huge losses.

Oh well.

"I wonder if talks of bankruptcy are true but are actually only being considering as an option and as a last resort"

melonhead - this is very much in line with what pokerchips said earlier and I think is the most likely situation.

So a deal may still be done and if not then the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process which they are preparing for in advance is likely to begin in earnest. Either way the business keeps going (at least initially) but shareholders are likely to be hit hard and potentially left with nothing depending on what is agreed either in the deal or during the Chapter 11 proceedings.

So still some hope left - just not very much. Equally though, those saying it is definitely game over are just guessing the worst with whatever motive they have - they simply don't know. There is a every chance they will be right but If it was a racing certainty the share price would already be zero or at the very least it would have ceased trading. Instead its low value reflects the current poor prospects viewed for shareholders.

Exactly Tegop - that backs up my point. They had quite a bit of deferred rent outstanding at the end of last year and it looks like they have less now. So rental payments likely to have been much higher than last year.

"I remember in march earnings they said q4 was cash flow positive. This summer dwarfed that revenue."

True Tegop but also have to factor in that costs have probably risen too (despite cost savings) and it is quite likely they have been catching up with rents that had previously been deferred. They may well still have been cash positive over the summer but it may just be a case of too little, too late - hopefully not though. We just need to see what the next few weeks bring and if there is a rescue package what the terms are and what the likely impact will be for shareholders. The derampers don't know regardless of hpw many times they say they do or how many dodgy calculations they perform.

Well sushi, at least you make me smile with how strident and ridiculous your non-stop nonsense under multiple threads is. At least make it faintly believable and less blatant otherwise you'll just be dismissed by anybody with any sense. CINE is in bad place now and it could get a whole lot worse so you don't need to go so over the top to scare people but your desperate attempts to do so are quite amusing.

Posts like yours that are riddled with holes and claiming possibilities as facts actually make me a little more confident if anything. Cheers.

"AMC also said that July saw the highest monthly attendance in US theatres since December 2019 as confidence returned. This raises the rather awkward question as to what AMC are doing well that Cineworld clearly aren’t, as both can’t be right?

Either those two films were very popular, or they weren’t, and if AMC saw record July admissions, Cineworld probably needs to ask why it didn’t."

Just rubbish reporting really. CINE almost certainly also saw the highest attendances in July since 2019. Clearly those films were popular and you just have to look at industry stats to see it. AMC are not doing particularly well despite what he says but most of all he misses the point that it is not about one month (July) - it is about overall revenues in 2022 and the insufficiency of these revenues to deal adequately with the balance sheets issues which are much worse for CINE than most others (not all - see Vue) - and that's before the court case.

"AMC and other movie chains reported positive earnings."

No, they didn't. AMC reported a loss for Q2 of $121m and a loss for H1 of $459m.

Whether you are ramping or deramping please at least get the facts straight.

No Madstork they haven't spelt it out - read the RNS properly. Even if the there is a D4E swap (which I agree is very possible) where it leaves shareholders compared to current sp depends on what terms the swap is on and in particular whether there is any discount and how big it is. It will though, whatever the terms, make it much harder for the many existing holders to recover losses if they've bought significantly above the current sp.

"Is it just me or is this board filled with dreamers that don't know what's going on. !!!!!"

I agree some are dreaming here (especially those that say this is all just a ploy) but a lot of derampers also don't seem to have a clue - but that may not be because they don't understand but they do and are just misleading people with deliberate nonsense such as 1p shares after dilution etc.

Put simply CINE are in a very bad position at the moment and it could go either way from here. Nobody knows.

You've done well as right issues rarely lead to short-term profits as sentiment is usually against them (EZJ and TUI to name just a couple of recent cases where they didn't). Besides I don't think a rights issue is part of the thinking here anyway (or at least a big part).

What does a big UT prove? It’s not a buy (or sell) but both. Just shows there is a lot of interest both ways at that price.

Top Gun, Spiderman etc. were probably just as successful for CINE as for other cinemas, or at least close. That’s not the point as Funinvestor has tried to explain several times.

The overall revenue has been much lower than pre-pandemic levels for all cinemas and in CINE’s case less than it needed to be to avoid the problems it is currently facing. Remember that amc failed to make a profit in q2 despite the good run of films. CINE may have done better but its weak balance sheet, the court case overhang, the low revenue expected over the next few months and lenders that have clearly become very twitchy and no longer prepared to just bail them out (with waivers or more funds) has meant CINE has reached crisis point.

Personally I don’t think this means wipeout for shareholders - but it could do. Cinemas will become profitable businesses again including CINE, it’s just unclear whether it will be given the chance, and if it is, what damage we suffer in the meantime both of which depend a lot on the attitude of the lenders.

"They're unwilling to take any other action and you just KNOW people hate dilutions"

I think they hate companies going out of business even more. I presume the 'haha' means you are joking when you still think they will be first to go. If not then I am really don't know why you think the miner with possibly the strongest balance sheet is the most at risk - and more raises make the balance sheet even stronger not weaker.

The reason I invested in them is I think they are the least at risk. There are plenty of others living dangerously at the moment including ARB - I just wanted to invest in one that I could be very confident would be around in a year's time (and also had a good strategy and seemed good value).

"On that basis my guess is they will be $800m short of their target"

HNS - One point is that $800m short of revenue does not mean $800m short of cash - it will be less than that as costs will also be lower (most notably the share of BO takings that have to be paid to the studios).

"It seems pragmatic to just put on the PW soul patch say "eff it", we're selling a bit of the hold this month"

PW had to sell - it wasn't a choice. Like other miners they have run out of cash so had to use BTC to pay monthly costs, fund growth they had commit to or, as in their case (and like BITF), to reduce their exposure to BTC loans that had become too big a risk.

By contrast HUT8 have plenty of fiat cash so do have a choice and it's no surprise they are reluctant to sell. As to the raise it is actually an ongoing option which may not be used fully and if it is then presumably it will be because they think it generates sufficient additional benefits and/or is a better option than selling BTC or taking out more loans.

As the strategy of using raises has worked out rather well so far I don't blame them for continuing it with this (potential) one.

Or was it meant for FP?

Obviously not from what I just said - so assume you were being sarcastic?

Hut have plenty to keep the lights on. At the end June they had $60m cash. At the end of July they had 7736 BTC so over $180m they could dip into. So around $240m which is enough for an awful lot of lights.

Their current cash outgo is around $10m per month and they mine a similar amount in BTC a month, so they could possibly keep the lights on by just selling the BTC they mine - but clearly this isn't their policy at the moment.

You missed out the bit that said "The net proceeds of the ATM Program may also be used to repay indebtedness outstanding from time to time, discretionary capital programs, and potential acquisitions."

So basically they've included just about every possible option in the list so really doesn't tell us anything about what they are using it for.

The one thing Hut don't seem to have any problem with at the moment is liquidity. They do seem to have a reluctance to use their BTC stash though (so I agree with your last point) but at today's prices I suggest this is a good thing.

It's one of the 'down the road options' I refer to if/when things are looking better but really is a non-starter in the current situation.

Agree - it's a race you don't need to win but one where you need to do well enough to stay in contention. It's still a race though.