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Sorry, still seems a giant leap to me. And can't see the figure. Was $1.5bn now $750bn - do you mean $750m?

I do agree the miners are powering ahead which is great but I think that's probably just down to BTC which is looking quite perky at the moment.

Yes, I read something about the possibility of taking methane and using it in the mining process - but it's a big leap from that to an actual subsidy with a figure on it.

I'm a bit more doubtful as although it ties in with last year they haven't released a 'notice of results' RNS yet (which they have done for every quarter since Q3 2021). Guess we'll soon find out.

It is in black and white - on Twitter. That's the bit I am cynical about (and that it sounds daft - I honestly thought it was just a joke). I haven't managed to find any 'proper' news source to verify it but if you can and then post a link then I will humbly apologise (and be absolutely gobsmacked).

Nope

Well, good luck Clintek. I may miss the boat but at least one of us will be on board if it takes off - or rather sets sail.

You can’t just write down and write up intangible assets on a whim - certainly not the same one so not sure why you think they will be ‘restored’.

Impairments are never a good thing though the reduced tax does soften the blow.

Clintek - I don’t disagree with what you say but all I’m saying is personally I agree with CJ39 - particularly around cash flow. So you’re right the sp may fly on good news but I’m already in a few companies that are sailing close to the wind regarding liquidity so don’t want to add another one without seeing the numbers first and taking a view on how tight things are or may become.

If I miss out on a decent rise because of that then it’s a price I’m willing to pay.

‘Fantastic results’? At best they were ok and the market clearly thought they weren’t even that.

As to the £37m adjusted profit I’d hardly call that great. It’s barely up from last year once you’ve allowed for the way they’ve changed how they report it. And asset writedowns are now a good thing??

The results were in line with modest management expectations, no more. However they are expecting a better H2 so we may have properly ‘fantastic’ results to look forward to then. In the meantime it’s good to see they are beginning to turn things around and have reduced the debt with the sale proceeds in H1.

I'm in the same position CJ and agree with most of what you say. I've decided to wait until the interim results come out before deciding as they should give a clearer picture of some of the things you raise. Of course that may mean I miss the boat but so be it - but to invest before then is just too much of a speculative punt for me personally.

"When does that period end?"

Not before results day (30th Aug).

You'll have to wait a little longer I'm afraid:

"The Company confirms that its interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2022 will be announced on 22 September 2022."

Thanks for posting that earlier Jamesy. Interesting if sobering read. Must admit it's my biggest concern with ARB at the moment along with the very low productivity he mentions (which is part of the problem). Although he probably overeggs it a bit as near-term the consequence is more likely to be a delay to the intel rigs rather than problems servicing debt as they have several options for this rather than just waiting for cashflows to turn positive and/or improve.

No real surprises though apart from the outstanding tax bill he's suggesting they have - would hope that's already been taken care of (either paid or set aside).

“So we see another material reduction [in net debt] by FY?”

I don’t see why not Vodger as they keep saying H2 will be better so they should have decent cash flow for the rest of the year even without any more proceeds from exits.

Personally net debt is not an issue for me as over £400m is lease liabilities which although they now show up under debt they didn’t use to and aren’t really debt at all (no actual interest payable or loan repayments). Instead they have an obligation to pay ongoing rent just like other ongoing costs - it’s just presented as interest ‘paid’ and ‘repayment of capital’ in the cash flows.

The loans only total about £440m which isn’t exactly huge for a company of Capita’s size so I’m just focused on them starting to show decent and increasing profitability/cash flow which hopefully they can start to do at the end of the year. Reduction in net debt should then just be a natural consequence of this.

And when he did try he thought they didn’t help. I’m not sure why the internet is relevant - if anything that helps more with fundamentals and news. All the prices would have been readily available. It’s all the software tools that have presumably been the catalyst for TA?

I have and find it a very generalised and patronising statement (which again is just based on an assumption - for example I don’t think Warren Buffett uses them much and he’s been quite successful)?

I do use both anyway but with a heavy bias towards fundamentals as it is them that will ultimately will drive a company’s sp - the charts may just explain the wobbly bits a little until then and make sure you’re more likely buying on a dip than a peak.

So I may not be a very good investor but if I’m more aligned with Buffett’s approach then it’s at least a start :-)

Again I’m talking about LTH and not day-trading.

“All mining goes through cycles.”

And therein lies the reason why I’m not a great believer in charts. They tell you what has happened in the past but not what lies ahead. Yes, if an sp is dipping and there is no fundemental reason behind this then obviously it is more likely to go up in the future than it was before (and why personally I never invest after a share has risen recently) but there is still no guarantee. All miners are making losses at the moment (or close to it) - that cannot be sustained indefinitely and no chart in the world will stop the badly managed or just unlucky ones from going bust and the sp going to zero. The longer this goes on the more are likely to fail before any BTC recovery (something that also cannot be guaranteed).

In short what goes down doesn’t necessarily come back up.

Sorry - I’m not a chart believer. As a tool for short term trading they can be useful and in identifying resistance points - but beyond that I feel they are as likely to mislead as they are to lead for LTH.

Hi Vodger. I thought they were expecting a lot of reduction in net debt over the year - this from H1 results:

“We expect revenue growth and profit to increase in the second half of the year, despite the uncertain economic outlook, to deliver positive free cash flow before the impact of business exits and materially to reduce net debt over the full year.“

I thought the message was similar in the outlook at FY2021?

So would expect a lot more than £0.2bn for the rest of the year? Of course reducing net debt and reducing debt are two different things and as you mentioned both I’m not sure which you actually meant? When any sale completes net debt automatically reduces as cash increases. Debt obviously only reduces when that cash is used to actually pay off the debt (I think around £130m was paid off in H1).

Don’t you think that growth rate had more to do with them rebounding from Covid after an 8% decline the year before?

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/elsalvador/overview

I admire your enthusiasm but it’s getting a bit out of hand. 2+2 = 5 may be a good Radiohead song but drawing such upbeat and unlikely conclusions from every snippet of data or news isn’t going to change anything.