Member Info for Hexam

Rep - they have released admission numbers in presentations.

In the Jan 4 presentation (on Kroll site) admissions from Sept 5th to Christmas were 30.8m compared to an expected 49.2m so 37% below what they forecast at the start of Chapter 11.

In the recent hearing though they said admissions in January were 8.8m compared to 7.4m expected so 19% ahead of forecast and February was broadly on track.

In addition summarised financials have been released each month in the dockets.

The Jan 4th presentation in particular is worth a look if you’re interested in a summary of performance and progress though only covers up to Christmas.

IF they've struck an absolutely cracking hosting deal with Galaxy and IF some of their cash crisis was due to having money committed to intel machines and IF they can access further capital to expand and IF their strategy and, even more so, their timing improves markedly then I believe they can aspire to much more than just keeping the lights on.

A lot of ifs though and tbh my own view of ARB is still very bleak and I'm simply trading what I have left in it. All the other main miners are in a far better position in my view to grow and capitalise on any bull run but as we've discussed before the industry as a whole has issues just always running to try to stand still.

Of course if BTC soars now then they all win big (at least in the short term).

Yep - can't argue with any of that HC.

Their capacity for growth (or their lack of it) is key and at the moment this is very unclear with in particular the lack of detail on the hosting arrangement and the silence on intel. So we don't know if the Galaxy deal has just bought a little extra time or could, just possibly, be the start of a renaissance.

I think you mean our creditors (i.e. lenders etc.) rather than debtors (i.e. CINE)? In which case I don't see how wiping us out is the worst news for them as the less that is left for shareholders then the more there is for creditors (either out of any sale amounts or as equity in a D4E).

They only have to do them every six months which is why they didn't have to do Q3 (and before Nasdaq they never did Q1 or Q3 at all). They seem to be getting less and less transparent so I'm not too hopeful of them giving out anything in the year end financials that they don't feel they have to.

AB - our messages crossed but it looks like we're very much on the same page :)

Only thing I'm not so sure of as you is whether there will be much more detail regarding the Galaxy arrangement in the year end numbers than we already know as the hosting arrangement will only have been active a couple of days. They could outline the hosting terms but suspect we'll have to wait to Q1 (or even H1 if they decide not to publish the quarterlies again)

HC - Through the second half of last year the cash breakeven number was pretty consistent at about $30k per BTC mined (profit breakeven $40k+).

Now though it's impossible to tell as they have stopped publishing monthly financials and of course have moved to a hosting arrangement for Helios which we don't know the impact of and which could be very good or bad depending on the terms. Electricity prices have come down though so that should help and efficiency has improved in February (but only to where it was last year and still around 25%-30% below where it should be).

Current cash position also very uncertain and depends a lot on whether there is any significant capex at the moment (e.g. with Intel). If not then they should have enough for at least 6 months and probably a year (depending on BTC).

So we'll just have to wait until the Q1 financials to get a better idea of how things stand unless they release more details of the terms of the hosting arrangement with Galaxy before then e.g. with the year end financials.

HNS - Agree, the lenders and potential bidders now have full access to CINE’s numbers so will be seeing a lot more than us and will have made their own projections by now.

So unless as you say there are major deviations from those forecasts it seems unlikely BO numbers will have much impact now (though may of course increase our own confidence - or not depending on the numbers).

Hi Allkap, I’m well thanks and hope you are too.

Yes, smaller chains like Everyman are profitable already but they have far fewer screens per cinema so rely a lot less on the depth of releases (which is still very much a problem but improving) as the blockbusters (which are less of an issue now) can fill their screens up. Though there are obviously other differences in their offering too.

For CINE to shrink in the same way they would have to move to smaller premises, rather than just close certain ones, which I don’t think is much of an option.

So not sure that what you’re suggesting is feasible. The reduction in rents and closure of loss making sites will still help though. I think it will be a while yet though before the full impact is seen as they are still negotiating both the rents and the closures (I think less than 30 have actually had the lease rejections approved in Ch 11 so far).

If you’re interested there’s some good info in the Jan 4th presentation about progress on leases.

@Tegop - I think then we are on the same page regarding unsecured creditors then.

The latest earnings figures are in dockets 1297, 1298 and 1299 for the three separate Ch11 businesses and will include all sources of revenue (though as Waffen says they are not broken down). Latest set is December but January figures should be out soon.

@Tegop - yes I understand that. I just didn't understand what point you were actually making i.e. whether you felt the unsecured creditors taking a big haircut is good or bad for us. I think it is not good as if they don't get much then we'll likely get nothing (unless there really is something to this RoW angle that saves us).

@Waffenburret - I understand what you are saying about agendas and there is definitely more to consider than just the numbers but for me I just prefer to rely more on the facts rather than second guessing motives. I know you don't believe the numbers are 'facts' (fair enough) and that they are out of date (which is certainly true) so can understand your different take on things.

But I'll stick with the numbers especially as the US Box Office figures are fully up tp date and they are still well short of what we know they need to make a profit. The key thing though is things now seem to be improving and I agree the trend is more important.

The main reason though I bang on about profit is to counter the suggestions that keep recurring on this forum that CINE is in a great position, making lots of money and already paying down debt (including another thread suggesting this today). So that somehow they will just be allowed to trade their way out of trouble - in my view that is just not going to happen unfortunately as they are not making money and things have gone too far with the lenders.

Our best hope is a sale or D4E that leaves us with something - and this doesn't have to be very much to be worth more than we have right now.

Sorry Tegop but I don’t get your point about unsecured creditors taking bigger haircuts as if that happens then there is less chance of any deal being approved, and if it is, of shareholders getting anything at all from it as we’re behind them in the queue.

@Tegop - In my view there is nothing to be gained in talking down the business, especially for the shareholders (though that may have been different at one time in respect of the CP claim).

They will either sell the business (assets) in which case they will want the highest price possible and so will want the business to look at good as possible.

If they go the D4E route they will want the the most debt to be exchanged for the least equity as possible so the more that equity is seen to be worth the better. Also if they made out the business to be too bad then the lenders might just give up and take their chances with liquidation. They wouldn't have stumped up the DIP financing for a business they had very little confidence in.

Regardless of what I think though CINE are clearly talking up the business as can be seen in the Jan 4th presentation (where they highlighted Avatar and cash flow despite the poor box office figures) and more recently in the latest hearing where they focused on January and February admissions being ahead of expectations.

@Waffenburret - Sorry to hear you've not been feeling well and I share your confidence in cinema returning to at least pre-pandemic levels - assuming, as I expect, the number of films being released finally gets back to normal.

I still don't get though why you don't believe the management accounts that CINE are releasing each month through the court documents - I think we'll just going to have to agree to disagree on that one. Though even if you prefer, as you say, to place more emphasis on box office figures then these don't really help as average monthly domestic box office has actually been lower since those on which the last published, full results were based (HY 2022).

So the results they do publish each month show they are making losses (up to December) and Box Office numbers suggest the same (as well as for January and February too).

Be that as it may though, the slate is now improving (March will be a very good test) and I am confident CINE can move back into profit before too long but whether that is this year, next year or, at the outside, 2025, is hard to say.

So I suspect strongly that CINE will recover and thrive again should it continue (rather than be sold) but I fear it is probably too late for us as shareholders judging by the wording in the last RNS - but fully accept that there is still a chance things will turn out much more positively than that.

Anyway, hope you're feeling better soon and that there is some good news on the company shortly to help you in your recovery. I may not be as optimistic as you - but I haven't completely lost all hope yet!

PS - nice to see a reference to my favourite book :)

Not sure it makes much difference either way as it looks like there is only one theatre in the ROI (in Dublin).

That’s interesting as would mean the ROW business they keep referring to now includes Ireland which it hasn’t before. I cannot find any specific reference to Irish locations post Chapter 11 though in either part of the business. I get your proof by absence argument but would still like to see it actually appearing or referred to directly somewhere.

Wolf - Certainly Republic of Ireland is reported under the 'UK' structure rather than ROW so I assume it is included within the Chapter 11 proceedings?

" If anyone buys CINE as a whole they will have to buy the equity at around the 52 week high."

@Tegop - I don't think that's the case. I believe that this only applies to a potential purchaser if they have previously bought shares in which case their offer cannot be less than the highest price paid by them in the previous 12 months (not the highest sp overall).

As you say though, the takeover code does not apply here anyway as they are selling the assets, not the shares.

CINE are not paying down debt at the moment as:

1) They are not currently generating any meaningful positive cash flow to be able to do this
2) They would only be allowed to in Chapter 11 by agreement of the lenders and the approval of the court (no such dockets exist showing this other than those for when they moved debt around)
3) They publish the outstanding debt figure each month and this isn't going down

Negative I know - but factual.