Member Info for Hexam

"Hexam what would you genuinely tell someone else to do in your position? Whatever it is you should do that."

AB - I wouldn't tell them anything as I never presume to tell anybody what to do with their money but I know exactly what you mean and you are quite right. Looking at it as objectively as I can I would sell now and spread it across other miners as I'm confident all the main ones will outperform Argo which has boxed itself into a corner as far as funding and growth are concerned (not to mention their still woeful inefficiency).

But easier said than done although I have moved most of it already to others (MARA, HUT, CLSK and BITF) which is already paying dividends. Would be RIOT too but never managed to catch them on enough of a dip. I should have learned my lesson having not got out when I first had serious doubts about ARB (somewhere around the 60p-100p level) and I remember getting plenty of stick from the diehards when expressing those doubts! But it's hard to cut ties completely when still at a loss and even to resist either averaging down or trying to trade out of trouble. Having said that I don't think it will reach my breakeven of 30p anytime soon unless BTC really breaks loose so I'll probably settle for the next decent spike. In the meantime I just hope there isn't another devastating RNS...

"If this is the start of a bull run, or even if it is pre bull run, then all miners are cheap and all miners will move but in my opinion other miners will outperform Argo. 80p, 133p those numbers are way off (but below mine by the way)"

Totally agree and if this manages to get to 30p then I'll be in the black and out - and I'll be focusing solely on other miners who are in a much better position to take advantage of any bull run. Tbh I probably ought to do that now but dumb pride selling at a loss and all that!

@waffenburret - So to sum up you don't trust any of the recent numbers etc. out there and are relying on your instinct and your thoughts on the cinema industry in general - and how the players will act in the chapter 11 in particular.

Fair enough and I agree with some of what you say about cinema in general so share your optimism there.

However, I'm not one for conspiracy theories so do take more notice of the recent numbers, dockets and RNS's and for me they suggest that whilst cinema will probably prosper, we as existing shareholders will pay a heavy price before that happens. I still think there is a good chance we will come out better than we are now though (e.g. perhaps via a 90% or so dilution) else I would have sold the rest of my shares already - but I can't share your more optimistic view. Still, you make a much better case than most of the other more 'enthusiastic' posters, who just seem to make up anything no matter how ridiculous, and I hope for the sake of my shares that your optimism is justified.

Will be interesting though if your (or my) view changes when the full year audited results do come out as it sounds like we will both trust those!

"Therefore I, and others here, have reached a position based upon the likelihood of survival of CINE based on other data, in a form that gives greater value to the sp than a single-digit figure."

What other data? Hopefully it's not the stuff routinely invented by Ianharding and maidit? I get that you don't have much faith in any of the information provided by CINE within the Chapter 11 process, or the dockets, or the box office mojo figures - but am struggling to see what other information is out there?

I’m well thanks Bonkers, hope you are too.

Yes, there seems to be a bunch of insanely optimistic posters that still haven’t grasped the gravity of the position CINE are in. They keep posting that CINE are making lots of money (they’re not) and the longer this goes on the more likely they’ll be allowed to trade their way out of trouble, with loans on more favourable terms (!!) and we’ll all get to keep our shares as they are including Mooky and his family’s 20%.

Positive thinking is one thing but that’s simply never going to happen. To pretend that it will is either being blind to the situation or traders deliberately lying and just trying to bump up the price to get their exit.

Still, it’s what gets the likes so plenty of people seem to falling for it so it might just work - who knows?

I’m still hopeful we’ll get something from this mess but shooting for the moon or stars will only end in disappointment. The funny thing is I suspect it’s more likely to be these kind of people who will be first on the phone to lawyers to complain about company misinformation etc. and trying to sue to get their money back…

Looks like your post went right over the heads of Jing, Maid and quite a few others it seems. Never mind Bonkers, maybe a little less subtlety next time?

One of the interesting things about MARA's results which is relevant to ARB is the hit they've taken from the write-down in value of their mining rigs. Some of this was unavoidable but some had an element of judgement.

I wouldn't be surprised if ARB does something similar in their upcoming results. After all it's not unusual for a new management team to throw all the bad news they can into already poor results, blame it on past management and so look better themselves in the future having got everything bad out of the way that they can.

So whilst they will have to take the sizeable hits from the discounted sales of Helios and machines it is also quite likely that they will take down the value of their remaining assets - especially the recently purchased expensive machines that they've kept.

In which case we could see ARB posting a loss for 2022 of well over the $150m or so that was already expected...

"I don't know how people can post result is going to be SHT we are going to tank,
when the 17th March 2022 result show a doubling of revenue
and an EBTA of $400m from a loss."

The EBITDA may have been positive and over $400m but there are lots of things excluded from that number, notably anything related to rent. Oddly enough not all the leases are rent-free...

The overall loss after tax in 2021 was $565m and 2022 is likely to be even worse given the figures that they've already released.

Having said that, this should come as little surprise to most investors who have done at least a smidgeon of proper research so I doubt the poor results will have much impact on the sp, if at all.

Instead the sp will probably languish at around this level until we get some concrete news (or rumour of such) which will send the sp one way or the other depending on what it is.

Fair enough :)

No but guessing, hoping, being pessimistic or optimistic may impact what we decide to do which is rather the whole point - unless you're happy just to fall asleep on your investment?

Thanks, although I don't think that really says anything new as they are still working on the deal (which would expect) and getting closer (which would hope).

I cannot see though how, or why, we would get any meaningful vote on whatever the deal is. We're at the very bottom of the food chain and, even if they bothered to ask us, if we said no then can't imagine it would affect the outcome.

There certainly seems to be a lot of activity surrounding a RoW sale but would expect there to be (including preparing possible TSAs) so personally I don't treat what is in the timesheets as statements of what is actually going to happen so don't read too much into them. I agree though that a sale of RoW is one of the more likely possibilities.

Must admit haven't read the article on the DIP restructuring as not registered with site (and yes, I know it's free to do so).

"Surely some interest is more positive than little or no interest though?"

Not necessarily - for example in my view if there was some interest in the whole company and it was sold then I think we would end up with zero. Of course if there was LOTS of interest and a bidding war opened up then it could just be possible for it to fetch more than the $6bn+ needed that would mean that we would be left with at least something.

If there is no interest then D4E would be the option and we MIGHT still get something and so could end up being better for us than the option above. Of course if there is no interest in this either it would mean liquidation and nothing for us.

If there was good interest in some bits then this could increase the likelihood and amount of any value we get on from the D4E of the remaining business.

If the rest is sold and we are somehow able to keep hold of RoW as a business without diluting shares (as some others on here think) then that would be a big win. Personally can't see that happening though - but hope I'm wrong!

In short there are many permutations still open and it is unclear which ones will end up being better or worse for us (apart from liquidation of course).

"So they all belong to Crown UK Holdco limited which is one level down from PLC."

Apart from Jersey which appears to be directly owned by PLC.

Yes, plenty of interest in RoW and at least some in UK assets but whether this ends up being good or bad for us is still unclear and will depend on the terms of any such deals and what happens to whatever is left within PLC.

Tegop - I think all those, except Jersey which I think is separate, are owned by Crown UK Holdco (not Crown US) as is RoW (via Crown NL). Source - opening presentation and company accounts.

I think it's easy to get bogged down in their labyrinth company structure but key thing is that the RoW companies all sit under Crown NL which is wholly owned by Crown UK which in turn is wholly owned by Cineworld Plc. So RoW can simply be sold as one lump and the proceeds will feed up the chain into Cineworld plc - which is what we have shares in.

Of course there are many other possibilities but selling RoW could easily be part of any outcome even though this part of the business is not within Chapter 11 itself.

“If the price of bitcoin slowly rises Argo will follow and increase the monthly number of bitcoins as prices rise.”

How?

I don't think it has been approved yet actually. The format these seem to take is that the motion is put forward and so is a draft wording for the approval. Until it is signed though it is not approved and with the last one that took just over three weeks - 12th Dec motion filed (Doc 1110) and 5th Jan it was approved (1192).

If you look at Doc 1110 it looks very similar to Doc 1405 with the confusing wording suggesting it's already been approved but it is actually Doc 1192 that approved it.

So I'm afraid we have to wait - which makes sense as it wouldn't just be rubber stamped on the same day it's proposed - with no chance for anybody to object.

Cruis - I don't know when the latest they can submit is (it might be end of June but not sure). Just because they release results normally at this sort of time doesn't mean they have to stick to that.

"Did we get 1 month relief? You'ld think they parade with a saving like that"

That would only impact the cash figures but what they are showing is profit numbers which are on an accruals basis so would only be marginally impacted if at all. I think they are missing $50-$60m.

"Would love some details there."

@Penta - There is actually a bit more detail further down (on the 16th page) but it doesn't make it too much clearer especially as there were some hefty intercompany transfers between UK and US that month (the 'interest' for UK for example was MINUS $76m - docket 1297).

In particular one thing to bear in mind is that the 'interest' figure you are looking at includes a lot more than just interest. Interest on loans and borrowings is much nearer $25m per month than $100m.