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Hi Fairtrader, when JOG succeeded in farming out the opportunity in their licence, I very much hope they didn't handcuff themselves regarding disposal of their minority 18% interest. Of course an organisation with pockets as deep as Equinor might want to mop up JOG's stake in the event of a meaningful discovery (and positive scan), but should they wish to, I hope JOG would be able to carry out a meaningful auction, after all surely that is the way that the £10 a share projections might be realised.
Hi Dickupham, this board is just a place to express our views and one view I have is that running a low tech business which I do, is all about the detail - and a lot of people don't have the appetite for all the effort that is required to make things more efficient and more profitable. I hope JOG don't acquire assets unless they intend to turn them because I see no track record in managing and squeezing production assets, a view I might temper, if they were based in Aberdeen. Of course they could buy an asset and have it managed for them. But the profitability, which someone else hasn't been able to find would be effected. Anyway D you're an accountant I think, so you'll know all about sweating assets and be able to throw more light on this issue. If it comes to raising money or seismology, JOG have a good skill set, I am just not convinced at the moment on the operational capabilities and I don't know how low or high tech the targeted acquisitions would be. Perhaps you can advise.
In mid December, I mentioned previously that I bought some JOG at 168 and I'd love to buy some more at that price. There will be no asset purchase announcement because the BOD may need to fund another exploratory well on Meribel and would prefer not to have to raise more cash to do so IMO. So this slide will continue until the rig hire details are confirmed which AB stated to Malcy - "advanced stage of negotiations". If the announcement isn't till month end, I see 168 and maybe 160 becoming a reality, that said I didn't apply that logic when I couldn't resist a nibble. yesterday.
In your post you say 100million barrels worth $90million or more to JOG. However, as AB pointed out to Malcy in his recent interview that 130 million barrels, the top end of the find estimate would be worth $200million. This is why validation of the top end will give the licence a mimium of a $250million valuation and maybe the market or Statoil will think more, considerably more. IMO
Besides which this short delay simply gives BigBench more time to organise the enormous party he is going to invite us all to when the good times roll. I had heard we were all being flown out to St Moritz for a massive new year's eve function but now he is apparently inspecting summer venues. One party planner I talked to was amazed by the spend envisaged, with fire eaters, Gray Beard on a rack (turn the handle for a fiver) and the Pit Lane girls from F1 being given a reprieve. Those of us based in Jersey will apparently be flown over by our own Pink Pilot. Bring it on..........
For those who believe that the find is at the upper end of the spectrum and that proof of this will inevitably attribute additional "value" to Meribel and the other opportunities within the licence, a downward drift is just another opportunity to acquire shares below the �2 offer price which I did not subscribe to. In mid December, I added to my JOG holding at �1.68 and look forward to more such opportunities over the coming months. Forget the acquisition talk, these guys no dick about operating, their expertise is in exploration and finance, they have the funds in place to to clarify the licence value and get taken out by Statoil or another major. So if they've got their feet up for a few months and they are handing out some options who cares - if the licence is proven to be worth �250million and maybe considerably Once this story becomes more widely known, and the summer is upon us the wait will have been well worth it. And as I do not expect to hear any acquisition news, I am looking forward to a return to the terrific mid December price returning.