Member Info for HereKittyKitty

3rd week of July

Would exactly say down 2.8p is the Doldrums 🤣

Jefferies Financial Group reissued their buy rating on shares of Darktrace in a research note published on Friday morning. Jefferies Financial Group currently has a GBX 890 ($11.26) price objective on the stock.

Https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BNYK8G86/

The problem DARK currently has is they are listed in the UK where people don't understand Cloud based tech ARR subscription models - luckily US competition does & they like buying undervalued companies

Https://www.lse.co.uk/news/darktrace-well-placed-after-third-upgrade-to-outlook-in-three-months-hcvhvwsct2sjht3.html?utm_source=alerts&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=2024-04-11&utm_term=news

In 5-6 quarters they are on target to break $1B ARR which is huge for repeatable revenue in a cloud company

Q4/2025 could be something very significant

Cloudstrike has a Market Cap of $75.6B on ARR of $3.44B 22X

Darktrace has a Market Cap @ 465 of $4.09B on ARR of $731.1M 5.5X

Crowdstrike is high, but Darktrace is LOW

Why wouldn't Crowdstroke buy $731.1M ARR at 5.5X value to add to their 22X

In cloud based subscription companies, ARR is the Annual recurring revenue that will come in should 100% of companies keep their subscription going.

5%-7% is a typical cloud churn rate; ie customers who don't renew (no longer need it, go out of business, M&A, switch products etc like we do with Amazon Prime, Disney+, Netflix, Apple TV+, NOW etc etc). So you can expect 93%-95% of that ARR to renew next year.

"ARR at 31 March 2024 was $731.1 million, representing year-over-year growth of 23.5%."

Simply means even by not adding 1 customer & churning 5% they have $695M revenue guaranteed next year

Adding more customers & upselling/cross selling new products/modules/seats to existing customers increases ongoing ARR.

Compared to US competitors they are way undervalued on the ARR they are producing & hence a very strong healthy buy out target

Berenberg raises Darktrace price target to 630 (600) pence - 'buy'

Indeed

✅ ML ties gone

✅ Old investors off board

✅ Solid repeatable growing ARR

✅ Revenue up

✅ Forecast up

✅ Profit up

✅ Cash to invest in R&D up

✅ Customer growth up

✅ Churn stable

✅ Security & AI demand up

✅ New products

Becoming a free stable standalone FTSE 250 going 100 company

Let’s see if I’m right in 2 weeks 😁

“ As long as update meets/exceeds forward prediction & profit stays intact with solid ARR & customer growth I'd forecast 548 in the following 2 weeks exceeding the Aug 2022 peak of 544”

This is a better source that’s updated first

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BNYK8G86/

Just Qube 1.06% but bet we will see that drop tomorrow

Looking at their shorts & rough SP end of trading

0.57% 15 Dec 257

0.60% 18 Dec 364

0.77% 19 Jan 345

0.82% 30 Jan 359

0.78% 1 Feb 343

0.80% 7 Feb 361

0.79% 12 Feb 355

0.67% 7 Mar 490

0.72% 14 Mar 490

1.15% 15 Mar 483

1.06% 20 Mar 455

They will have to reduce well below 1% now for sure

Darktrace improves revenue and margin guidance after returning to growth

https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1045059/darktrace-improves-revenue-and-margin-guidance-after-returning-to-growth-1045059.html

Https://www.lse.co.uk/news/DARK/london-briefing-astra-promises-dividend-hike-darktrace-ups-guidance-lqv0nlbjmournli.html

Well after that Q3 update I’ll be interested too see Qubes position on Shortracer tomorrow

Yes awesome update

And this was a good section near the end

“ Termination of Pre-IPO Shareholder Agreements

As a result of share sales made between May 2023 and March 2024, each of the three shareholder agreements dated 30 April 2021 between Darktrace and the Invoke Shareholders, KKR DA, and the Summit Shareholders have terminated in accordance with their terms (as described in the Darktrace IPO prospectus). Consequentially, no shareholders have rights to nominate potential directors for consideration by the Darktrace Board of Directors.”

ARR up

Revenue up

Customers up

Churn stable

Guidance narrowed & raised

Darktrace is also raising its expectations for year-over-year Revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA margin

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DARK/q3-fy-2024-trading-update-imh2a4o3gr1ecsg.html

Qube could be hurting come Q3 FY24 update this week

ARR up, customers up, profit up, forecast on target, ML gone

Looking at their shorts & rough SP end of trading

0.57% 15 Dec 257

0.60% 18 Dec 364

0.77% 19 Jan 345

0.82% 30 Jan 359

0.78% 1 Feb 343

0.80% 7 Feb 361

0.79% 12 Feb 355

0.67% 7 Mar 490

0.72% 14 Mar 490

1.15% 15 Mar 483

1.06% 20 Mar 455

Feels like that could be a bad short very fast and lightly will have to reduce well below 1% especially if II's that's bought up on the 425 placing which has now well consolidated ready to move up if II's feel this is a safer long term FTSE 250/100 share