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I rarely bother looking at this BB any more. Largely dominated by some stale old share holders who should have sold up and moved on a long time ago.
The reasons for the poor SP performance are pretty obvious. A dreadful CPO year in 2022 save for the pricing and a 15/18 month delay in the ramp up of the cashew business.
CPO production has been excellent all year and the price decent. Cashews are showing signs of getting there. Hopefully they will contribute to the bottom line next year and not be a drag. They were originally forecast to be more profitable than the CPO side of the business, time will tell.
Lovehandles does have point here, though he may be irritating!
There is a big difference between ilmenite and rutile. Ilmenite can be converted to a 80/85% purity by roasting (expensive and carbon unfriendly). Pure rutile after DMS is 90/95% purity without any roasting
rutile sells at nearly $2000
ilmenite $395
so the maths is 1% rutile is 7/8% ilmenite equivalent and the rutile has loads more carbon credits which is v important for off takers.
Empire has a huge 'looking' resource but we don't know the ilmenite/rutile mix or how/if it is easy to get out of the host rock. These met tests will be key. We won't get them till next year. in the mean time we will continue to get lots of sexy looking drill holes and the price will ride up on the hype. I own but I won't be hanging around for the met test reality.
If you are interested in comparatives look up
Sierra rutile (used to be listed in London) has rutile but only 3 years of supply left
Iluka is worth a look, Kenmare has a big and mixed operation. Bluejay and Greenroc, sands in Greenland (ilmenite and problematic).
The standout rutile play which also has a huge graphite resource is Sovereign Metals. Just done a PFS and RIO has farmed in , financed and is driving optimisation and a DFS.
I owned Kenmare years ago, also owned Bluejay and Greenroc at one stage. I own Empire but the standout play, which I own for the long haul, is Sovereign metals.
Always good to compare and contrast. Titanium and graphite are complicated, the metallurgy is key for any long term buyers.
The person offering the most money generally dictates the terms of the placing...not the company or the broker
Fabulous production figures and still getting paid at a premium to world prices. It's a record May and looks like they are heading for a record first half. The re-rate continues
El Nino has come back, same as 2016/2017 . This will decrease rainfall in SE Asia (85% of world production) . It doesn't affect DKL production nearly as much. It will put upward pressure on prices which id great for DKL. In the mean time world demand grows year on year.
And then we have the cashews ramping up as the second revenue stream.
Considering they didn't land those two MSCs or the big tech contract, a very decent set of numbers. An excellent post covid recovery. If they land any of the delayed business, WSG becomes profitable and will re rate accordingly.
It's from the official page of the Ministry of Energy
'TPDC and the investor of the Ruvuma Block with approximately 1.6 Trillion Cubic Feet have completed discussions and signed the Natural Gas Supplement Agreement, Minister Makamba'
https://twitter.com/Nishati2017/status/1663906010614906884
that magic word....signed
From the comments of the board we will be hearing about this 'shortly'
It will re-rate on this news, happy to wait
That is the plan Rivaldo.
Whilst the cashews have come in horribly late, now that they are ramping up , we should see a material uplift in revenue and profitability. At long last, we have two agricultural production lines.
Thanks for the info. but it doesn't answer my questions.
Hopefully some of you can help. if its a guess please say so!
Let's say they produce at 10 mmscf per day for easy maths.
1/.How much do they get for each mmscf?
2/. How much is Opex per mmscf?
3/. How much is their take after tax i.e. setbacks?
Does anybody know these figures?
CPR ahoy!
Ffidelity have bought a 5 % plus position on market...that is outstanding news
People need to read the RNSs from the last testing on this well and the rationale for this one. There is plenty of good quality crude oil down there.
That is excellent news.
check out table 2 . Costs way down, making money on the tin production alone due to economies of scale, this will continue to improve as they ramp up/become more efficient
Just gone through the three latest messages from the company.
The Proactive Interview , the Quarterlies and the Zak Mir interview (see link below)
hxxps://www.**********.co.uk/articles/trader-s-cafe-with-zak-mir-marshall-abbott-ceo-and-joe-macfarlane-cfo-arrow-exploration-6e90d8c/
The proactive Interview was clearly way too early for definitive numbers on the re-completions. Judging by the way the 'market' has reacted with the SP dropping from 20.5 to 17.5, the 'market' was obsessing about the minutae of the re-completion numbers. Whilst MA had forecast a 600 bopd increase, we have at present a 350-380 BOPD increase with the numbers improving day by day still. The pay back on the costs for RCS-1 were 17 days! So we are producing more, making more money per month just not quite as much as we had hoped.
The decline rate on East Pepper has been startling but has now stabilsed at 250 boepd (1.5 mmscf ish). I guess this wouldn't have seemedsoo bad if they had kept to their original forecast for E Pepper of an intial production rate of 500 BOEPD. I imagine the excitement of those intial flush production rates gave hope to a more extended and higher production run. Between W Pepper and East pepper it looks like it is producing at about 5-6 mmscf. Good cash flow, good prices, all adding dollars to the bottom line. Plenty of chat re-inforcing their intention to sell Monteney and there is added interest now these wells are drilled, proved and on production.
One titbit in the Quarterlies. RCS-1 will have another re-completion. (presumably now?) and this is forecast to add several hundred more BOPD.
"An upper unit in the Carbonara 7A was perforated and flowed 330 bop/d (gross) after
stabilizing. Management believes a thin shale barrier bifurcates the C7A. It is apparent
that a thin shale break prevents inflow from the C7A main sand, which has superior
reservoir characteristics akin to RCE-2. Arrow now plans to perforate the C7A in RCS-1 as
it is the highest reservoir in the pool. The Company expects that RCS-1 should have a
comparable flow rate to RCE-2, where C7A is currently producing 1,025 bop/d (gross) /
512 bop/d (net) with a flat watercut."
All of these are nice add ons, clearly they are learning how to manage the reservoirs all the time but the real game in town is 'Phase 2' . The drilling of 5/6 wells, all with a 95% COS, all forecast to add 360 bopd net to Arrow. Each well costing circa $4.25m and having pay backs of just 37 days.
At $70 oil, 2023 will bring in $55m in revenue, $37m of cashflow. $6.7m of free cashflow (after capex spend) and they will have $21m in the bank at the end of 2023. Today oil is at $85 so we have plenty of extra margin to play with.
They see enough runway on the Llanos Basin and the Middle Magdalena to get to 10 000 bopd. This does not include Oso Pardo which will add, on success, another 4000 bopd.
'We look forward to positive and significant share price appreciation as we execute on the
I'm really looking forward to this farm out news. I'm hoping by the end of the year. I'm sure the market will get really excited about this over the coming year.
Shell about to kick off a 3 well campaign and Total to follow suit. 2023 will have plenty of catalysts to move the SP back up to recent highs.
Completely agree on Orinduik. I think Tullow will leave the block, just a question on what terms and when. They have had more than enough time. 'S h I t or get off the pot'.... seems the best way to sum it up
stopping there apparently, price action backs that up
Short drills are dusters. Drill down, no hydrocarbons, RNS, get rid of expensive rig.
Drills over time indicate either
1/. Drilling problems
2/. They've found hydrocarbons in one or two of the reservoirs and are testing to get as much information about them as possible (maximum quality data is key)
3/. We don't know if they have side tracked or not, we don't know if they would have RNSd that or not or are waiting to complete all operations and RNS the whole thing in one fell swoop.