Member Info for Henrythecat

The Iran war is hurting supermarket profits and pushing shares lower because it raises fuel, energy and food‑production costs, squeezes consumer spending, and creates profit‑forecast uncertainty. All major UK grocers have explicitly warned investors of these pressures. Then add in our own governments tax policies and employment cost issues and it’s a perfect storm.

I was surprised the share price remained resilient for so long

Must also factor in a 15.1p special dividend last November for the bank disposal and another potential payout if they eventually decide to sell Argos or better still they turn it around and it becomes value added

1.46% negative move two days before a 3.25% ex‑dividend is exactly what you’d expect when:

• Dividend is large

• Arbitrage funds avoid tax drag

• Traders unwind early

• Market makers hedge

• Retail sentiment is soft

There is no fundamental reason to interpret the drop as negative.

I am not agreeing or disagreeing but for a balanced argument both sides should be aired

The Cuban government seized approximately $1.9 Billion in American-owned assets following the 1959 revolution, which is considered the largest uncompensated taking of American property by a foreign government in history.

The Cuban government nationalized vacation homes, bank accounts, and large corporate properties. Major United States assets seized included:Sugar factories and refineries. Mines and metallurgy facilities On -shore oil refineries American-owned banks and insurance companies. Hotels , bars, and transportation docks (such as Havana Docks)

Hi Bradezz

No the trade you refer to is a UT.

UT on the London Stock Exchange is the trade code for an Uncrossing Trade — the single auction-matching print that sets the official opening and closing prices. ; it is the result of the auction mechanism matching all eligible buy and sell orders at one equilibrium price.

IAG has convertible bonds (debt that can turn into shares) maturing in 2028, with a 1.125% coupon.

They are now launching a process to buy those bonds back early — up to €825m, which is the full amount outstanding.

This is done through a reverse bookbuild, meaning:

• Instead of IAG setting a price,

• Bondholders offer the price at which they are willing to sell,

• IAG chooses which offers to accept.

Any bonds IAG buys back will be cancelled permanently.

Three strategic reasons:

1. Reduce future dilution

Convertible bonds can turn into shares.

Buying them back prevents future share dilution, which equity investors usually like.

2. Reduce debt and interest costs

Even though the coupon is low (1.125%), removing €825m of debt improves:

• leverage ratios

• credit profile

• flexibility for dividends or buybacks later

3. Take advantage of strong liquidity

IAG is signalling it has enough cash to retire debt early.

Key clause: the 15% threshold

IAG says:

If the remaining outstanding bonds fall to 15% or less of the original issue, it intends to redeem the rest in full.

This is important.

Meaning

If after the buyback only €120m or less remains (15% of €825m):

• IAG will force redemption of the remaining bonds

• at the contractual terms (usually par value + accrued interest)

This is a clean‑up call — common in bond markets.

Why they do this

• Avoid having a tiny “orphaned” bond issue still trading

• Simplify the capital structure

• Remove the risk of future conversion into shares.

For shareholders (IAG equity)

Positive bias:

• Less future dilution

• Lower debt

• Shows financial strength

• Often interpreted as a pre‑step to future dividends/buybacks

For bondholders

• They may get a premium in the buyback

• But if they don’t sell and the outstanding amount drops below 15%,

they may be forced to redeem at par, which could be less than the market price.

So many bondholders will prefer to tender now.

IAG is effectively retiring an entire convertible bond issue early.

• They invite holders to sell back the bonds

• They will cancel whatever they buy

• If only a small amount remains, they will force redemption and close the issue entirely

This is a capital‑structure clean‑up and generally a bullish signal for the equity.

It’s possible that the USA have let them through if the oil is destined for China. USA have enough on their plate without deliberately antagonising China.

Also reading recently that if Iran can’t off load their oil the pipes back up, this could flood the well heads which is catastrophic and can take years to fix. So much behind the scenes that we have no idea about. USA obviously does not want to destroy the oil industry as they could have done it on day one.

If this carries on for the long term , as at the moment markets are pricing in a short term energy shock with little contagion, there will be a structural revaluation of the economy and the markets will correct down 20% to 30%

and BP will not be immune. Only my opinion

Physical oil is trading at about $170 The Benchmark price is determined by millions of traded financial instruments and bear no reality to physical barrels. One barrel can be traded and benchmarked over a 1000 times but will have to be closed off as it doesn’t actually exist.

A trader buys 1000 contracts (1000000 barrels) and sells them , that trader sells them on and so on.

The same barrel is sold over and over again but it is just a reference unit and does not exist.

Less than 2% of contracts result in physical delivery. No wonder there is so much volatility it’s a game

As you can see from my previous post I’ve completely messed this one up. Took a 20p profit but forfeited the dividend and today’s spike. Win some lose some

I sold everything thing apart from Oil shares on day 2 of the war. I bought a lot back on that dip on the 23rd.

On Thursday I’ve again sold. I take the view that I’d rather miss out on the start of a rally than be holding if there is a sharp downturn. If I were 30 years younger I probably wouldn’t even bother to look at the prices and take a pragmatic long term view

Harmonica

It’s up from 101.5 to 104.

If Trump alludes to boots on the ground then I think probably yes

Oil on the way up again , Trumps real address must have been leaked to his mates

Just sold all my shares this morning at 701 and will buy back after the dividend could not risk Trump doing something crazy over the Easter period and crashing the market

Oil futures still very high and this is the biggest single cost for airlines. I know they are hedged but that will end and they will have to pay more.

It’s crazy that people are having to make investment decisions not on macros and company information but on the machinations of an extremely unsuitable president.

It’s a gamble one way or the other but I suppose in a few years time when it’s £5 plus trying to guess the bottom will not really matter to much.

Good luck to anyone buying today. I personally can not see how anyone can be confident in how this war is going to develop. A ground invasion, if then followed up with the Iranian threats would be a disaster.

The FSTE is incredibly 1.65% up but this share is down 1.88%

Of course this will recover but at the moment it’s just like gambling on the next news feed.

New CEO with plans to streamline the company. Buy backs cancelled and plan to pay down debt ( remember $35 billion payments for Deepwater until 2033 ) excuse the pun but not a too long horizon and re repayments decreasing every year the bulk has already been paid.

Forecasts predicated on oil at $65 so obvious beat. I assume the trading arm will have made a killing

Finally BP has had its Russian mark down but we are by far less exposed to Gulf problems as only accounts for 3% of production unlike Shell who have big interests in some of the sites that have been hit..

Some this gleaned from a recent story In the Times NP

Seems bit of a stretch 22% increase for a high dividend stock especially with 10 year gilts at near record highs. FSTE at present in my view too influenced to the upside by the oil / energy companies flying on a war premium. They make up nearly 10% of the index.

The shares are not being held in treasury they are being cancelled.

This permanently reduced share count , increases EPS , supports dividend sustainability (less shares to pay dividends on) and per share metrics.

Hopefully this should start improving as we are getting to the stage when normally dividends start getting priced in.

Trump as just messaged - 48 hrs to open Hormuz to all shipping or America will hit all Oil and fuel plants starting with the biggest.