Member Info for Henrythecat

Trump said the Navy would escort as soon as possible and if necessary. It may be weeks before this could happen. Iran’s military capability would have to be smashed before this as it would be such an enormous gamble and not to mention the thousand plus naval mines Iran could deploy

This share generally has a beta of 0.85 to FSTE. The war is Iran is bad news for oil prices and inflation if prolonged. Most importantly the effect on gilt yields. Until things improve companies like these are going to come under pressure. The most vulnerable is LGEN shares because of its dividend yield spreads and IFRS equity are more susceptible to movement in long dated gilts.

So yes America getting involved in the war will have a negative impact on this share

Issue slightly complicated by recent buy backs and other fixed prices but historically BP’s beta to oil is 0.3 to 0.6

So £10 oil hike equates to 3% to 6%

But bit of a casino with all the conflicting messages abound

Initially a war spike scenario model was showing $95 /$100 spike and BP moving between £4.90 / £5.10 with a quick reversion to normal levels but this was caveated with no major supply interference.

If the Strait remains closed for a considerable time then the model has BP ranging between £6.10/ £6.50 with a slow reversion due to a structural re-rating

Just for information as this looks very similar to many Ai generated forecasts

Another scenario is that the markets drop considerably but BP shows only a modest increase. But one thing I know for certain is that PI’s will find it difficult to get a price first thing until everything settles down.

BBC reporting Iran is closing The Strait of Hormuz.

This share trades usually between a relatively tight window. It is a dividend stock 10% pa - if you are looking to make money on price rises perhaps look at a growth stock.

Tucked away in an ISA it’s a relatively good share. I would only sell if there was wind of them messing with the yield.

I’ve spent years trying to second guess the market but on the whole my best profits came from sitting on my hands

I was under the impression (may be wrong) that in C11 protection the debt holder does not have a choice about whether he wants to make the debt/equity swap.
I also doubt that it will be a straight 1:1 swap - also in many C11 the restructuring cancels the company's existing equity shares. It then reissues new shares to the debt holders, and the bondholders and creditors become the new shareholders in the company.
Unfortunately the small RI always gets s#@#££

I apologise a little mis-leading forbidden is the wrong word.
I have a number of investment trusts and the trustees are not able to invest in companies with negative earnings.
I have some that can only invest in companies above a certain market cap.
An American one I have can only buy shares above $25 and have a certain debt to earnings ratio.

. They pay a high dividend but are unprofitable and many funds are forbidden from adding this class of share.

I’m one of the people you seem to be moaning at. All I did was go to work , take an occupational final salary pension and bought a house in London when they were affordable.
I do not consider myself a drain.
I’ve paid over £1M in taxes over my working life.
Have sent my children to private school. Have private health insurance and use a private dentist.
I am very fit , play squash and run 10K 3 times a week.
One of my neighbours is in his 30’s he has diabetes, obese and borderline alcoholic
He is a massive drain on the system. Should we tax him more or refuse him treatment - at least he does not smoke.

I tend to agree - there may be a little upside short term but until profits start showing up ( last small profit due to tax credit) it will be stuck in 130 - 155 range.
When things improve and they start paying a dividend and more importantly start buying back to counter the RI then I can see 2.50 + but that could be 2 years off.
But remember this was trading at sub 90p not too long ago so 50% return for some already

Metom - possibly the governments announcement that they are monitoring a new variant. Hopefully it turns out to be dominant but weaker.

3.53 Smiffy
£3.58 Emerald
£3.6625 Annalisa
£3.70 Grezzz
£3.73 JP. WIliams
£3.74 Henrythecat
£3.76 Share-Ninja
£3.80 licker
£3.83 KPMAN
£3.85 Chasin6
£3.87 Stockready1
£4.05 spight
£6.82 Y11

I think with the pension relaxation rules and the advent of Sipps it is surprising how many people have pension pots in excess of £1M. The buy out values of some of my colleagues occupational pensions were eye watering and unfortunately were enticed to swap out. They are managing huge amounts with very little experience resulting in purchasing high yielding and favour RI fodder shares with very little global diversification.

Slarti - the point I was trying to get across was that the buy backs are purely to counter the MCB’s
The free cash flow is good but I think the SP is hampered by the company’s debt level. Debt will be rolled over for years and not always on such favourable terms.

Vod issued two tranches of Mandatory Convertible bonds , the final one maturing next year. The associated share buyback programme was launched to counter the influx of shares when the bond converts.
The main issue is the threat of increased interest rates and how this will affect repayment on its considerably debt.
I would prefer for it to cut its dividends and make inroads into the debt pile.
Short term pain for long term gain.

Managing loss is just as important as taking profits. I do not take issue with a LTH hedging their investment with a small short position just in case.
Alternatively no issue with taking a long position on CP to hedge a perverse court decision that could have a negative effect on Cine.
For disclosure I’ve sold out of this a while back - for a simple reason it’s risk profile is way too high for my investment cycle.
I hope people that stick with it are justly rewarded.

E: Friday competitionToday 13:02
£3.54 Emerald
£3.61 oystercatcher
£3.62 Henrythecat
£3.64 JPWilliams
£3.65 licker
£3.75 Gulfharbour
£3.81 plas
£3.90 spights

Lat - very clear and detailed - thank you for taking the time to post it - it’s ironed out a few wrinkles I had