The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
I bought some more today too. I mean there’s lots not to like but a market cap of £95m with a likely revenue well in excess of £30m this year is crazy. And even if that falls to £20m without COVID the valuation is still nuts.
We are a sitting duck for a takeover right now and I would embrace it even at 25p.
I note the current surge contract expires on 14 November so would be good to have that extended soon as well as new COVID contracts and further information on the US contracts.
One other point. Does an EBITDA of £2m compared with £0.2m loss last half year feel low when revenue has doubled? I suspect that is the impact of lower margins and the heavy investment in staff. It feels like H1 will only break even at best.
Onwards and upwards though.
Steve, the detail was in the trading update last year.
I want sustainable not temporary revenue.
The results are excellent in the short-term, but the market is looking into the future beyond COVID and is uncertain at best or doesn’t like what it sees at worst.
These results are poorly presented, which is very frustrating. Previously, we have had breakdowns of NIPT, reproductive health, geographic regions etc with a flavour of how particular products have performed.
We have none of that this time and the results are therefore difficult to assess and compare.
What I do know is that in H1 2021 COVID revenues were £10.5m and non-COVID revenues were £7m. And the non-COVID revenues include £0.7m from the acquisition of Coastal Genomics, so £6.3m like for like. As far as I can tell from the results, in H1 2020 COVID revenues were £0.2m and non-COVID revenues were £8m, so non-COVID revenues were down £1.7m on a like for like basis.
YGEN has got to get a grip and start presenting these numbers better because it is creating uncertainty. And they have got to prove there is life beyond COVID because that is what the market is looking for.
I am not surprised by today’s market reaction at all. And all the rose-tinted, blinkered apologists need to wake up and smell the coffee.
I was pleased to hear in yesterday's AGM that the core business has rebounded because that is fundamental.
LR said half of the H1 2021/22 revenue was from core or non-COVID business, which is around £7.5-8m and therefore pretty much the same as H1 2019/20 so there has been no growth in the core business during the last 2 years because of the pandemic.
Overall the figures were fantastic but we need the core business to kick back in when the COVID tide goes out again.
I find the share price hard to justify but maybe it is because of confidence and credibility as well as long-term uncertainty.
Whatever, a market cap of probably just 3 times current year revenue is hard to believe. Hopefully one of these blue-chip healthcare companies or UK pharma companies we are working with will recognise that and buy us out for at least 30p.
Just noticed there are about ten new laboratory vacancies for YGEN on hireful.
That bodes well and suggests news is coming about contracts.
Does anyone know if we have achieved ISO15189 yet? I thought that was key for government contracts? Perhaps we have, we just haven’t announced it by RNS!!!
Steve
I disagree with it.
Around 7 minutes, when he is talking to slide 4 of the presentation, LR clearly says we have won 2 new US NIPT contracts and onboarded the customers.
In my opinion they should be announced by RNS. We don’t have to name them, as the organizations have requested, but we should have issued an RNS for both.
Anyway I’ll move on now but I feel what I shall call the case of the missing US NIPT contract RNS is a mistake.
It’s great news that we have won 2 US NIPT contracts and I look forward to the contributions they make from October of this year and Q1 of next year.
No need ColSoul, he is not worth engaging with. He adds no value so nothing lost.
I will not mention him again and will focus on what the Company is doing, both good and bad.
All the best
Hemo
Davand
Yes see my post of 21 July. This issue goes back a while.
CooperD
You’re pathetic and not worth engaging with. Do one until you can make a contribution other than slavishly following like a little lapdog.
CooperD
Please be quiet and stop shutting down the debate you snowflake.
I do know about it. A NIPT contract has been agreed with a major US organization and it hasn’t been announced by RNS. It should have been. Simple.
I want to focus on the positives as well but apologists like you are the reason why people aren’t held accountable any more.
Seems odd it wasn’t announced by RNS?
I can’t believe it’s not true so either it’s immaterial or YGEN has not complied with its regulatory obligations to announce material contracts?
Hate to put a dampener on things but that is pretty serious.
Anyway it looks like things are finally getting better so as Twix says let’s hope they deliver now.
Presentation was excellent this week from LR and the outlook looks promising.
Anyway can someone point me to the 2nd RNS announcing the 2nd US NIPT contract in Q1? I can see the 9th June RNS about NIPT but no other?
I know it's only a couple of weeks later than last year but to blame the delay on COVID is priceless.
A pathetic, predictable excuse.
I am the CFO of a large private company and COVID had no impact on our audit close.
I am usually pretty placid but I am getting very angry about this piece of **** company.
I am sick and tired of waiting. And I am not going to sell because I am heavily invested. But I reserve the right to be hacked off with the directors and their performance.
I remember LR saying he wouldn't comment on the share price because that is out of his control! What an abdication of responsibility and how disingenuous!
Just communicate clearly and promptly, be transparent, consistent and deliver on expectations. Simple.
I hope those institutions who invested last year at 17p are giving him a right roasting.
What on earth is going on? How low can the share price go? This is excruciating.
Is there something fundamental we should be worried about that is going to come out of left field?
Just sell the business, give everyone a chance to recover their investment and let's all move on from this complete disaster.
See below recent exchanges with Walbrook in chronological order. They speak for themselves.
Me: Can you suggest to the company that they keep their job vacancies updated?
There are a number of job vacancies on hireful for which the closing date has passed eg the quality control scientist.
Walbrook: Thanks - I've passed on your suggestion to the company.
Me: Thanks.
In the February 2021 trading update the following was announced in relation to the revenue warning:
· Approximately £1m from pending reproductive health contracts with US partners, further delayed as a result of customers' attention being diverted to pandemic response as well as travel restrictions impacting the Company's ability to complete negotiations and installations within the originally anticipated timescales;
· The US reproductive health contracts, negotiation of which is expected to conclude in the first half of calendar 2021;
A number of our US pipeline customers for reproductive health are in the late stages of validation, with contracts expected to be concluded over the first half of calendar 2021, triggering recurring reagent and software sales.
It is now 1 July and I can see only 1 such contract announced on 9th June. What has happened to the others please?
Walbrook: These are the two significant US deals that have been announced to date:
First US Supply Agreement - 07:00:08 01 Mar 2021 - YGEN News article | London Stock Exchange
Multi-year licence and supply agreement - 07:00:03 09 Jun 2021 - YGEN News article | London Stock Exchange
Me: I’m afraid that is not correct based on the trading update from February 2021, in which the following is also stated:
The Company also expects to soon conclude licensing and supply agreements utilising Coastal Genomics technologies acquired in August 2020, which would further contribute to the expected growth for the next financial year.
Therefore the ‘First US Supply Agreement’ is separate because it relates to Coastal Genomics.
We have therefore had only one reproductive health contract in the first half of calendar year 2021 when we were guided to expect more than one.
Me: Am I correct or have I misunderstood please?
Still no answer from Walbrook three weeks later.
You are missing my point.
It is not about last year's results, it's about investor confidence, communication and delivering consistently and in line with expectations. Based on the last couple of years we should have known when the final results will be released. Now we are left wondering why we have not been told and may start wondering what issue could be delaying them, whether positive or negative. These things matter because they affect confidence and credibility.
Having said that I think last year's results are important because we have not had the EBITDA, profit or cash figures yet, which will be illuminating. We would also expect an update on Q1 trading and the latest prospects for the full year.
People have got to stop apologising for the company and see there is a problem, which is simply reflected in the share price. I always believe when someone does well, praise them, when they don't, let them know constructively.
We had notice of results on 13 July last year and results on 28 July. Why not the same this year?
We should be able to get results out within 3 months as a public company.
Communication has deteriorated again but of course you're not allowed to say that.
£52 revenue less £34 of costs so £18 profit. All guesswork of course.
Boots are selling the test at £65 not MHC. I think that includes VAT so perhaps £52.
On reflection, if we work on a third share each Boots is getting £52 net, MHC £34 and YGEN £17 so perhaps our sales are c.£1.5m for these two months.
Still good sales but turnover is vanity, profit is sanity. Can we make much profit out of £17 a test when we manufacture it and perform the lab analysis?
So if MHC have done £3m in 2 months I presume we can expect broadly the same? The sales figures could be massive this year, but I'm not convinced there is much margin it.
I fear that Myers is offloading more of his shares and this will weigh on the share price for some time.
Well done to MHC for releasing a trading update 7 days after the period end. That kind of prompt reporting is what we should aspire to.