Member Info for Hemo

Nearly 12 times based on FY22 revenue of $220m and buy out price of $2.6bn.

That makes us worth $260m vs current price of $32m!

Because these are the only 'credible' ones we have and they are implicitly approved by the Company. If they are incorrect that is another black mark against the Board.

Ignoring the facts that the Board don't respond when challenged by questions they don't like and they conceal important information (core business lower than expected at the beginning of last year, megalab signed up, 12 new customers signed up etc.), my assessment of the financial situation is as follows, using Yourgene's own broker forecasts:

1. We will continue to make operating losses until at least 2025, £4.1m in 2023 and £2.9m in 2024
2. There will be no need for further funding unless there is an acquisition. There is no cash available for a medium to large acquisition without additional funding. Capex of c.£2.5m per annum is possible
3. This leaves profitability some way off and therefore leaves us at best vulnerable to a takeover or at worst just treading water for several years.

Just get us sold now FFS.

My profit and loss account is reproduced below for transparency:

PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNT 2021 2022 2023 2024

Revenue 18.3 37.6 22.0 26.0

EBITDA (2.0) 3.4 1.3 2.5

Depreciation (3.2) (4.6) (5.0) (5.0)

Impairment (4.8) (1.0) 0.0 0.0

Share based payments (1.0) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4)

Exceptional costs (0.7) 0.0 0.0 0.0

Operating loss (11.7) (2.5) (4.1) (2.9)

Financing (0.3) (0.7) (0.6) (0.4)

Loss before tax (12.0) (3.2) (4.7) (3.3)

Wow - that is another epic revenue and profit downgrade then.

In most businesses heads would roll...and not just the Chairman who then remains on the board.

#this stinks

We had 1 US lab at the time of the CMD and we now have 3.

Why has this not been announced?

Agreed. Many of my questions were not answered.

It is very polished but the market doesn't believe the story. Time to give up and hand over to a larger organisation.

I want out at 15p and wish earnestly for a takeover.

I note FY23 revenue forecast is £22m so I would have thought we could get at least 15p.

Thankfully the institutions are filling their boots after the CMD…not

What happened to the megalab we were on the verge of signing up at the end of April?

Seems they are not prepared to pay the price we are asking.

The lack of commercial news is striking. What else will drive the share price?

As usual more comments than trades!

Dearie me.

From Yourgene’s website:

Life Technologies Limited holds 41,356,165 ordinary shares which are subject to a lock-in deed until 17 February 2022. There are no other restrictions on the transfer of shares.

If the relentless seller is not Bill Chang, could it be Thermo Fisher?

Illumina dominate the market and Yourgene now, their exclusivity over SE Asia has ended, perhaps they are throwing in the towel?

If so, how many shares do they have left?

By my reckoning we are heading for a loss before taxation of at least £0.8m in FY22.

Shareholders are wondering what the route and timeline to profitability is. Getting to £29m revenue will be a real challenge this year and so profitability is again unlikely in FY23.

LR started in 2018 and we are still not making money although I accept we are in a much better position now than then.

We need an exit through a sale sooner rather than later and this Ranger tech could make all the difference. Give me 20p please Illumina.

Good to have some (ex)employees on here to get some inside insight.

Glad to hear redundancies are being made to adjust costs to lower revenues. Just sad to hear it will cost £0.5m.

Don’t blame the company! Never easy to do but to my mind successful companies don’t exist as employee charities!

Disappointed to hear though that employee presentation cancelled as smacks of a lack of courage and conviction.

I presume the one US megalab is Ambry?

40x EBITDA sounds more likely, which at current levels is c.£150m.

Trouble is FY23 levels are likely to be c.£3m so that gives a valuation of £120m.

And is £3m even achievable? By my calculations at least 60% of FY22 revenue was COVID-related. That means non-COVID revenue was £15m. FY23 forecast is £29m so even with some residual COVID revenue that is going to be a huge challenge and the market is not convinced.

The CMD left me feeling the company is being prepared for a sale, which is the best way forward strategically given our size. Illumina is the obvious buyer. Timing will be key, can we get EBITDA to £5m in a year or two? Do we want to wait that long? Personally I’d take 20p.

Utter humiliation for the Board that on the day of the capital markets day and the trading update that the share price goes down and the brokers reduce their targets.

I bet there are two people at the CMD, both laughing so much that their sides are nearly splitting.

LR needs to go as well as AR.

So will the full year trading update come on the Capital Markets Day or before?

Last year it was 29th April.

We need to build some momentum here now so let's hope it's next week along with some US announcements. I think it's long enough now since HJ's share purchase.

Great to see director buying and more substantial this time but it does mean there is no imminent material news!

I note revenue is forecast to fall back to £29m next financial year.

However EBITDA will increase to £4.8m from £3.7m. The margin therefore rises from 10% to 16.5%. We are expected to turn a maiden trading profit.

It would be helpful to understand the basis of the forecast. Is a higher margin sales mix driving EBITDA ie less COVID? Are overheads going to fall dramatically? How can that happen with all the recruitment recently and currently in progress?

Costs will fall from £33.3m to £24.3m or £9m but revenue is down only £8m. That must mean we are expecting a significant decrease in costs but how are they going to deliver that?

Nonetheless with a forward sales forecast of £29m this should be worth c.£150m but we cannot seem to close the valuation gap. We need a change of board.

Every day there are always more twaddle posts than trades!

What a waste of time this BB is becoming. A good reflection of this piece of **** company!

I know the performance and communication have been woefully sub-standard, and markets are fragile right now for long-term growth stocks, but the share price is ridiculous.

I agree with other posters that the only credible explanations are either we have a large seller(s) or a placing is on its way.

I suspect the former rather than the latter because I think it would be suicidal for LR or AR to raise funds at this price, but there has to be a better way of managing the communication if someone is selling in significant volume.

I would be amazed if one of LR or AR don’t lose their jobs very soon.