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Great to see director buying and more substantial this time but it does mean there is no imminent material news!
I note revenue is forecast to fall back to £29m next financial year.
However EBITDA will increase to £4.8m from £3.7m. The margin therefore rises from 10% to 16.5%. We are expected to turn a maiden trading profit.
It would be helpful to understand the basis of the forecast. Is a higher margin sales mix driving EBITDA ie less COVID? Are overheads going to fall dramatically? How can that happen with all the recruitment recently and currently in progress?
Costs will fall from £33.3m to £24.3m or £9m but revenue is down only £8m. That must mean we are expecting a significant decrease in costs but how are they going to deliver that?
Nonetheless with a forward sales forecast of £29m this should be worth c.£150m but we cannot seem to close the valuation gap. We need a change of board.
Every day there are always more twaddle posts than trades!
What a waste of time this BB is becoming. A good reflection of this piece of **** company!
I know the performance and communication have been woefully sub-standard, and markets are fragile right now for long-term growth stocks, but the share price is ridiculous.
I agree with other posters that the only credible explanations are either we have a large seller(s) or a placing is on its way.
I suspect the former rather than the latter because I think it would be suicidal for LR or AR to raise funds at this price, but there has to be a better way of managing the communication if someone is selling in significant volume.
I would be amazed if one of LR or AR don’t lose their jobs very soon.
I go from negative to positive and back again very quickly on this company.
I note we are recruiting a ‘Culture and Performance Manager’ or in layman’s terms a good old fashioned HR Manager.
That makes at least 3 people in HR for nearly 300 people.
I work for a company with nearly 4,000 people and we have 4 people in HR so draw your own conclusions. It works fine.
#empirebuilder #whereistheroutetoprofitability
Great post GLT.
This is either a massive fraud or an incredible buying opportunity!
I notice we have 15 vacancies. Seems hard to square with a company that doesn’t have great prospects but of course there is some suspicion LR may be a megalomaniac!
The share price makes my blood boil.
We are now at 2 x current year revenues! And still no one wants to buy us! What are we all missing? Is this company incapable of ever delivering the profits we expect?
The Board is utterly useless and needs to change. What on earth are they doing to drive the share price? When is this capital markets day scheduled? Are we raising money for an acquisition and that is why the price is falling? Is there a large seller? No one has a bl00dy clue ffs!
It is absolutely ridiculous, it's not just CooperD - the entire Board should hang their heads in shame at the share price performance.
What a bunch of miserable shareholders we are and with good reason.
Something is not right in the state of YGEN and change needs to happen to unlock value.
If an active investor bought 5% of the company they could really shake things up and make a decent profit.
Or does anyone fancy banding together and getting a bit more 'active' with the Board? We need only 5% of the shares to call an EGM, seek the removal of one or more of the directors...it may come to nothing but I guarantee it will make the Board take notice of us.
It’s disappointing that the company can’t release any RNSs that move the share price.
Today’s RNSs were weakly positive and can easily be spun negatively.
It’s great that we are putting in place non-dilutive funding to finance our growth and SVB seem an excellent partner, but £5m is not enough and if we are going to make a meaningful acquisition it will likely need to be supplemented by a dilutive equity raise. To my mind, it is more likely funding to support the growth of the business in terms of the working capital increase required. Just look at the working capital increase in H1 2021/22.
There is clearly a lot of growth expected from Yourgene Canada and it’s Ranger Technology, which is very encouraging, but we have no idea of the level of growth forecast. By contrast we know we are going to pay a higher rent and the salaries of a significantly enlarged workforce.
Every RNS seems to be an own goal and the reaction of the market says everything. The news is just not communicated effectively.
What does it mean for the ignorant among us?
Are we able to continue selling the Clarigene test legally?
Market in my opinion thinks revenue may be £33-£35m this year but the company still can't make a profit or only a tiny one at best.
Market then thinks these revenues are not sustainable because sooner or later COVID sales are going to dry up as the world goes back to normal and recovers its sanity, realising this is something we have to live with like flu or the common cold. Then YGEN will be left with a core business that produced £16.6m back in 2019/20 and has gone backwards since then. It will recover but only gradually and there is no confidence it can deliver a profit any time soon.
That is why we are languishing at 12p and will go nowhere until communication and execution improves.
I know it's Christmas but the number of trades is ridiculous!
Clearly the presentation to analysts last week has not helped liquidity or confidence.
I think we are now valued on less than 3 times expected sales, which is outrageous for a healthcare company with excellent prospects.
The Chairman has got to go, he is utterly ineffective at his job.
I know it's Christmas but the number of trades is ridiculous!
Clearly the presentation to analysts last week has not helped liquidity or confidence.
I think we are now valued on less than 3 times expected sales, which is outrageous for a healthcare company with excellent prospects.
The Chairman has got to go, he is utterly ineffective at his job.
Completely agree, get this basket case sold because this management cannot deliver shareholder value.
I was pleased to see recognition that the share price is too low, but I'm not convinced there is a credible plan to manage it in future and the people who are managing it now like Walbrook are completely useless.
I'd take 25p in a heartbeat.
Is that another red flag, Davand?
What do you think? Do I really have to spell it out?
What has it been replaced with given our capacity and the revenue it was producing?
You'd think so but the surge contract ended on 14 November and we have had no confirmation that it has been extended.
Poor communication again, unless of course it has ended and in that case it is equally disappointing.
I wonder if LR has gone to the US this week to meet the team as well as existing and prospective customers? Would be nice if the company tweeted about it or similar. He needs to go there soon and it would be nice to have some photos of him at our Vancouver offices or similar.
I notice that the UK birth rate fell 4% in 2020 and has declined 15% since 2012. I suspect the 2021 birth rate decline will be even higher given COVID-19. So although the market for NIPT is growing in terms of the number of mothers being offered the test, the total number of mothers is falling every year. I suspect that is the same across most of the world. Probably not a problem short to medium term but must be an issue long term.
Absolutely shocking further decline in the share price.
Is another placing on the way after meeting the institutions?
AR absolutely is a big part of the problem because he is responsible for relationships and communication with shareholders, which couldn't get any worse.
For clarity, my point was about the level of staff in general but that also includes directors.
If we made an EBITDA of £2m in the first half, it is likely we will make a very small operating loss at best after depreciation, amortisation and share-based payment expenses. That is not great when your turnover has doubled and you made an EBITDA loss of £0.2m in the corresponding period.
LR earned £300k in 2020/21 and BH £200k, excluding share-based payments. These salaries are fine but the cost of all directors was £1.7m in 2020/21, whilst the wider cost of all employees was nearly £9m. We will not make a profit with these costs at these levels of turnover, but of course they will argue it is a platform for growth and it is difficult to argue with that for now.
What is worrying though is the continuing decline in the core business, which they almost seem to be covering up. Reading the trading update you would think there was growth in the core business but it fell from £7.7m in H1 20/21 to £6.3m in H1 21/22, on a like for like basis.
Directors share options of over 60m at an average exercise price of 10p also irks especially when they are not being exercised if the directors have such confidence in the future. I wish my average was 10p.
I do believe in this company because the business model is good, the long-term growth story is there and we have strong relationships with large players, but I dislike some of the spin and firmly believe the Board needs strengthening, particularly the Chairman and CFO.