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https://twitter.com/spearce999/status/1500731614556528641?t=aNRKhveppNOGCTul63QIug&s=19

When you have long, complicated and important RNSs it sometimes take a while to get them past the NOMAD because everything has to be verified. Kenya isn't just the drill results but the implications for the forward development of the asset.

Similar with Australia.

But I agree, it does take longer than it should to get RNSs out.

DYOR

You miss the point.

The point is that sometimes it is cheaper to buy oil on the stockmarket than explore for it. If NTOG's assets were private, they would be valued much higher than they are being part of NTOG.

At some point someone will say, I am going to buy it/the assets.

The oil price goes up and down, it doesn't stop deals being done.

DYOR

The stockmarket is cyclical and sometimes the cheapest place to explore for oil is in quote companies.

NTOG is a candidate for someone to come in, buy a position and take it private.

I was told a couple of weeks back that the price per flowing barrel was around $42k: it has got to be nearer to $50k a barrel now.

DYOR

Not for me to tell him when to buy.

$109.45

Been looking in detail at the Strand Energy Well just across the lease line from Fouke #1.

Perforated in two zones Deu Pree Sub Clarksville and the Deu Pree Woodbine. Apparently the Sub Clarksvile is heavier oil and sells for a lower price than the stuff we produce from the Woodbine at Fouke #1.

It seems likely that the Sub Clarksville is at Fouke #1 and Fouke #2. So at Fouke #2 we probably have at least 3 producible intervals.

The Dexter was water at Fouke #1 but we probably still have the Sub Clarkesville.

Why is it important? Well all of this adds to the reserves. It looks to me that the reserves are going to be materially higher at the next review.

DYOR

Currently $105.20

Not sure that the Dexter will make a difference. The wells around there are flow rate limited by RRC. It will make a difference to the reserves and PUDS but not the actual flow rate. Fouke #1 could probably quite happily flow at 200 bopd but for whatever reason Cypress didn't approach the RRC to get the limit raised.

On a read across basis Fouke #2 should be able to flow at a higher rate than Fouke #1, two zones, greater porosity and more pay zone. If they didn't seek to raise the limit on Fouke #1 because they were worried about formation damage caused by over-producing, then the better porosity on Fouke #2 should take that worry away.

In Cypress's hands not NTOG's.

DYOR

Good result on the well hey T old boy? Another one that you said would be a failure. Still asserting that nothing ever happens?

Eventually you might make your losses back.

Hawaii, it is not a peer. It is Reconnaissance Energy. Recon has blocks in NE Naminbia and NW Botswana in the Kavango Basin. Elephant has the block which abuts the Recon Namibian blocks to the South West.

Recon says it has found a working hydro carbon system and will now concentrate on finding producible oil. Offshore Namibia there have been three recent decent sized discoveries. So Namibia is hot as an oil territory right now.

DYOR

Morning Trolls.

Looking very good. Big hint about PUDs and Reserves. Big news for the WAFD redetermination.

DYOR

No, on the contrary. I understand the limits of the knowable and the extent of my ignorance. I also am also aware of when people are propagating their opinion as fact. Both may be useful but they are not the same.

xx

0.6p and above.

Just my warrants left and the fun of dealing with people who are certain that they are right but don't know enough to realise that they don't know everything.

I expect that this will go higher in due course. I am surprised it is still at this level. Hopefully, it gets to 1p+ . Things have been slower than they should have been but if everything worked out the way we expected, where would be the fun?

If we were all as clever as we think we are, we would have given NTOG a lot more money early last year to go and buy as many marginal assets as possible.

DYOR

What is it with you trolls and reading?

You don't know what the year end production was; you just know the average for the quarter. Perhaps you need to have a little brush up on averageness. It will be while since you did your course on mathematical statistics. Maybe, you have forgotten a couple of little bits?

Anyway lets talk about fun stuff: why didn't you buy back in at 0.3p when you spent all this time trying to talk the price down?

DYOR

Hey Just Be,

Can you confirm for us what low price you sold out at or do I need to go back and have a look?

1. You have the average for Q4 not the final level of production. The production at any one time is a function of which wells are online. Some come online and some go offline. NTOG confirmed it was bringing another two old wells at PM online in Q4.
2. I was expecting that Fouke 2 would be drilled by the end of Q4. Cypress have delayed it, likely so they can line up extra acreage should the drill be successful at Fouke 2. You will remember that they acquired more acreage after Fouke 1. Each drill firms up the seismic and unlocks further prospects. Cypress has been drilling elsewhere nearby.
3. It is serious cashflow at the prices in Q4, even though we had a drop off in oil prices during December. With the higher prices Q1 and the extra production, Q1 will look better still.
4. Both the facility renewal and the reserves update were very good. Next time around, they will be even better.
5. Tunisia is next. Tunisia is still on the go otherwise NTOG would have said otherwise. You need to reread the latest RNS: it is hinting at other deals in addition to not instead of Tunisia.

So which bit did I get wrong? Oh yes, Fouke 2 was two months later than expected.

So go on, tell us; how much did you lose?

DYOR

Bridge.. about that, a bit up and a bit down as wells come online and go offline.

Wells always need some TLC.

Just think about how much everyone is going to make who bought in around 0.25p/0.3p. That should make even you happy. Forget about your losses and just smile. You will feel better.

Sorry, I would expect Kenya this week and Australia next week.

FYI

I was a 10% holder before the pre-IPO round, I took some in the round but nonetheless I will be diluted somewhat. So I know exactly where they are up to. However, I can't comment: not particularly because of RRR but Elephant is going through the SEC process now.

Until everything is agreed with the SEC, nothing is agreed but so far it looks okay.

There is a range of outcomes, it will come down to market conditions at the time and market appetite. Market conditions are favourable to Elephant: when this started oil was around $55 and they thought they could get a decent valuation. Oil is now $90+ and they have the new Namibia license.

But, until it is done, it ain't done. Once it is signed off by the SEC, they will put it in the public domain.

DYOR