RE: RNS20 Aug 2023 13:23
Trade, why not ask me some hard questions?
The big issues are transportation theory, site management and engineering.
There is no reason in principle why the volume of monthly production at Tin Hill could not be greater but that brings in lots of other issues: more than one production train (look at the other sites run by other companies), more capital equipment, more capex, more staff, more transport movements and so on.
The original plan was to keep it low volume, simple, low CAPEX. To execute that plan we didn't need a specialist contract miner. Now it looks like they have made the decision to step it up, new skills are required. Hence, Dirk Benade and the potential JV partner.
IMHO operational delivery is not an AB skill set, he doesn't have the bandwidth given what else is going on and it cannot be done remotely from London. Then multiply that out over several sites and really RRR/AB cannot get that up and running from London.
Lithium prices have been a bit all over the place and have been trending down.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium
https://www.metal.com/Lithium/201906260003
What price you would get as part of a long term offtake deal is another matter.
I don't know but I understand that the local Zim price for 2% spodumene sold into an APP is now $100/$150 pt and I understand that 4.5% sold into export is around $1,500 pt. Getting to SC6 is more complex and expensive but the price is better. This is the crux, keep it simple, low risk but lower price or move up the value chain and take on more risk and more complexity?
If ALR ends up with an APP (the RNS from Friday says pretty much that they will) then we can buy in unprocessed product from other miners, process it and then sell it into the export market. Another revenue stream but more complexity introduced.
If you look at recent RNSs, Tin Hill is 51 hectares and we have other larger licences. I suspect what will happen is the first one is brought into production and then the next and so on. The initial planning will incorporate planning for greater capacity at each site.
Really, RRR/ALR needs to put out its plans but that probably won't be until they have concluded this potential JV deal.
Dirk Benade should be able to do all the planning for this standing on his head. If he is doing the planning is he going to plan to separate out spodumene, petalite, lepidolite, tantalite, beryllium and the tin? Marula were separating out the spodumene and petalite; stockpiling the petalite for later processing and sale.
DYOR