Expected Return2 Aug 2023 09:30
Legal - the reason that people like you act so smug but come across as an idiot is because you act like everything is 50/50 when actually it’s all about expected return.
Would you walk up to somebody buying a lotto ticket, tell them they’re not going to win, then go back and smuggly tell them you told them so?
Simple maths for you. Calculate expected return by taking the probability of each possible outcome and multiplying it by the expected return in that case. This will give you an idea of the risk associated with the investment. Of course, the probabilities and returns are open to the interpretation of the shareholder, but please stop acting like it’s the flip of a coin.
The expected return here is high thanks to the extreme upside should any / multiple projects come to fruition. That fact more than any is what makes sitting through dilution worth it for the investors (which I seem to recall you are not).
If you are not willing to do your own maths, pease just go and hangout outside Martins and tell lottery ticket buyers they’re not going to win, you’ll enjoy that.