Member Info for HeimlichIII

Fair enough, but people saying there's more results on other results and the results will be the best we've ever seen and then the report will be the best report and we're going to make billions of dollars are equally clueless and spreading misinformation.

I've stayed quiet for a number of years, but I really hope people aren't buying based on some of the sh*te that's being sprouted on here this week.

And the TR1 dude knew nothing, he's just a wealthy guy, it's hardly like he bought millions.

For the newbies. Great to have you hear but don't knock the LTH's. Suggesting Naheedout can't be a LTH because they want Naheed out is just idiotic and shows ignorance. It is exactly a LTH holder who is allowed to have an opinion on the performance of the CEO.

If you stay here for longer than a week, you'll see. It's a frustrating place to be and the report you are all waiting for is not likely to arrive on time. Hope it does, but there's previous.

It’s an error, quotes are different. Might have been one small sell.

Absolutely, and many of the derampers on here forget he owns 70% of the GH project. Oracle are just the vehicle. And they have got to where they are right now in a very short time and with a number of big global players either already involved or certainly sat around the table (literally as was the case last week).

Yes, I get that some will be hung up in finances and revenue, but the potential here is unbelievable.

My biggest fear is that she gives it all away too cheap…although I still think it could do 20x very easily. £40-£50m mcap

It frustrates me to engage, but genuinely, do you think Shaikh Ahmed Dalmook Al Maktoum (who has been funding 70% of the GH project to date) will want to see the project fold?

Whilst I see the worst case as him buying out ORCP for a giveaway price, I do not see administration as the end point if naheed fails to fundraise.

Please attempt to give a sensible answer if at all possible.

On the board. You didn’t post as far as I can see. The three led by Naheedout.

These posts this morning are so obviously written either by the same person or by people in direct communication, it’s embarrassing really.

I understand your point, but it irritates me when it is assumed that anything with two outcomes is the flip of a coin. The upsides in SP here are much great than the downsides (especially from where we are now) so it is very easy of those knocking the SP and the company to say, “told you so”. There are many opportunities to knock, but we only need one big news day.

These people are the same people who would stand at a lottery ticket machine telling punters they’re not going to win, then gloating when they don’t.

Hopefully you can see my point…

😂

That is insane!!! For a non investor

Adam - confused as to what is incorrect on that part of the website?

Can’t fault that one for a change Legal.

By buying now you are assuming that something positive will happen ahead of next fundraise. Or that the finding will come from elsewhere. It must cost the Sheikh almost as must as they raise each time…

JStar - that’s just my way of working out if it’s a viable investment or not. Clearly all the other bits are what informs the estimated figures.

My point really is that it is all based on opinions, but all that really matters is what you believe the likelihood of success is and what the return in that scenario is. Everything else behind that is what individuals go round and round debating on here and where clearly opinions will differ hugely. As will different PI’s appetite for risk.

If I increase the probability to 10% chance of success and an SP of 1.5p then my expected return is a 5.7 times what we have now.

For these reasons this remains a hold for me, or a buy if you are risk attracted.

Let’s put the debate aside and look at it from a mathematical, risk taking perspective. I.e, is it an investment in current state.

Expected return takes into account probability of success and failure and the return of each. If I model based on an SP of 1p as a high (arguably would go higher) and 0.01p as a low (arguably could go lower), then the break even point for expected return is at 1.8%. In other words, my investment will return exactly what it is now if there is a 1.8% chance of ‘success’.

Personally I believe there is a greater than 1.8% chance of success, and that the SP would probably go higher than 1p.

Everyone has different views here about the company and the individuals. All that really matters if what you think the likelihood of success is, and what the return will be in that scenario.

Happily do more calculations for anyone who wants to amend my assumed figures for the probability and the SP potential if the GH goes ahead.

The structure of the fundraising is bizarre. I could understand getting little at 10-15% discount, but at 50-60% she should be filling her boots and setting us up to financial close. The fact she hasn’t makes me believe that there must be some kind of revenue generating possibility in the near term. What that is I do not know.

I agree re the GH project and the sheikh. He is heavily invested here and if the SP drops much lower I can see him buying ORCP outright and pocketing the remaining 30% at a bargain price. The sceptic in me wonders if there’s some price manipulation leading to that outcome.

I remain hopeful that at least one of the projects will get over the line to revenue generating, and with that hope the upside is significantly greater than the down (from and investment point of view).

Looking at expected return the product of the probability of success and the investment gain is far greater than that of the probability of failure and the loss attached to that. Which fundamentally makes it a very attractive investment for somebody who can afford to be risk attracted

Spiceygoat - actually I have been invested since early 2020 when the initial chat about the LOI was around. Whilst I am lucky that I benefited from the big spike when the sheikh got involved, I am of course well down.

However, my point is that if you believe there is no way back for the company, surely sell up? Leave with something rather than nothing?

For me, the key to the GH is that 70% is owned by the sheikh and I do not see him giving up on the project. I also have some faith in Naheed, although she seems to be reading, “Fundraising for Dummies” alongside her day to day work.

I remain hopeful that we have enough positivity to get one of the projects over the line, even if we have taken a number of brutal knocks to get there.

Sell up then 🤷🏼‍♂️

If you think there is hope, hold.

If you think there is no hope, sell.

If you are invested, share views.

If you are not, don’t.

Simple really 😀

Yes. Bit dull isn’t it. It’s really very easy to be negative about a company if you’re not invested. It’s about risk vs reward. What does this jump to when the RNS drops confirming full financing arrangement of the GH project?

Legal - is it correct that you don’t own a single share in ORCP? Im sure somebody has implied that but I don’t actually believe that can be the case?

That’s simply not true now, is it!

In any case, if you believe that to be fact then you should sell up. You must believe there to be positives or you wouldn’t be here.

Some claim not to be invested, but I don’t believe you’re one of them