Member Info for HedgeHogarth

I'm going to make a prediction that we have seen the bottom

Justin Waite talked positively last week and seemed intent on buying back in

Some great contributions to this BB in recent weeks

I did a "mystery customer' enquiry at three venues to suss out Xmas party availability - it sounds like they are really busy and a great opportunity for XPF to report some record numbers

I genuinely beleive we could be looking at the next Hollywood Bowl here _ I'm just not convinced whether it will be under this owenrship structure or whether Private Equity will snap this up and join it up with some of the other players in experiencial and competitive leisure

Northern40

You clearly either have a big short position of a personal vendetta

They are not raising - they have plenty of headroom with their bank facility

They are hardly going to raise and dilute their share price when selling the business

Steve is anything but unprofessional. This is a guy who's DNA is in the business - he build up a company that was IPOd at £200m.

You are one very strange poster who seems out of touch with the opportunity here.

WIth some moderate buying pressure this could really move today

I wonder if the herd will arrive?

Thanks for the share. I had a look at a few of the GMs - some talented employees

Nice post Cheezer

It's generally accepted that is you have a bad experience you are more likely to review and or tell lots of people

There will always be times when people have a bade experience - so if reviews are mostly positive - that is a good sign

And hopefuly, if management are all over the reviews as you say, they will address the issues in Cardiff

HT - you are right

Had the Mint thing worked out better he would have secured £60m funding ahead of the very difficult 2 year long

It may have worked better if GlobalCo has take the option as this would have better supported a higher share price.

Agree with you - I was also taught that charts etc were nonsense.

But a lot of traders believe there is a lot to learn from them

His portfolio was doing brilliantly - and then went into decline during the bear market

He genuinely bought a lot of Escape Hunt at an avg of sub 10p. The SP went north of 30p before starting to fall.

Not sure what he sold at, but he saw it drop a long way from 30p

He'd ignored the downtrend because he was such a fan of the company

He then chose to change his strategy - sold most of his positions in small companies to hold cash and a fund.

HT - there you go again.....right on cue

Yes - we all agree that the Mint funding did not go to plan

However, you can live in the past, or you can move on.

The SP is higher now than during the period from 14th May 2021 to 6th Jan 2023. That is 600 days. So anyone who bought during this 600 days is in profit

And as you mention the Mint episode. Whilst I agree that with hindsight it was not a well executed attempt to fund the company it did achieve the following.

It raised £10.4m at an average price of 1.9p. Prior to the rapid increase in the Share Price due to the Covid link - the prior rise was £650 at 1.8p.

FY 2019 - Pre Covid (Share Price 2-3p, mCAP £9m)

May to Sept 2020 - Covid lockdown, Hemo announce Covid project (Share Price 10p-12p, mCAP £50m)

18th Nov- 2020: RNS Mint Deal announced (Share Price 9.5p, mCAP £41m)

12th April 2021: £1.5m CLNs converted @ 5p and 6.3p by this time (Share Price 7.1p, mCAP £33m)

14th Apr 2021: RNS confirming 'GlobalCo' not taking up option to license CDX (Share Price 4.4p, mCAP £20m)

18th May, 2021: RNS announcing termination of Mint Deal but not before 3 further conversions at 3.9p. 3p and 2.3p. The termination involved a placing to raise £6.5m @1.5p to settle up with Mint. (Share Price 1.8p, mCAP £17m)

1st December 2023 - (Share Price 2.25p, mCAP £26m)

I will leave everyone with a things to consider....

1) Was Hemo really worth £50m back in FY20???

2) mCap was still £33m after the Mint deal had been announced and after 2 conversions

3) So many shareholders were anticipating a commercial licensing deal with 'GlobalCo', when it was announced that it was not happening the mCAP dropped by 40%

4) Following the conclusion of Mint deal the mCap was £17m - still x2 the pre Covid value

In reality, since FY19 Hemo have not been close to revenue, have not started clinical trials, and have raised £19m to effectively fund CBR and CAR-T development.

5. Today' SP is broadly flat vs 2019 - but the mCAP is 2.5x what it was in FY19. When you look at it like that, it sort of makes sense.

BUT with the recent strategic investment from Prevail and with Clinical Trials likely to start in the new year - now is the time for shareholders patience to be rewarded

I wonder if HT will say anything positive?

Justin no Charlie Munger

To be fair, I think branding him a trader is a little harsh - he's as close to an investor as anyone else I see share content

He has bags of enthusiasm and doe a lot of homework and is relentless in his pursuit of companies he things fit his criteria.

His Tick List is:

1. Growing business

2. Small to Medium companies whose potential mCAP can double or greater

3. Cash Generative

4. Share price is not in a downtrend

5. Plenty of liquidity

6. Decent executive / management team

Those are all pretty good indicators - not something most traders look for

Sadly HT does tend to regularly attack my views

He's perfectly entitled to do that - I'm sure he has his reasons - but he does not come across as a very nice person

I'd be the first person to admin that my posts are always 'glass half full'

The reality is that no company should be judged on a day to day basis - it takes years to build a successful company. Add Biotech into the mix and the timeline can be even longer.

Hemo have NOT achieved in the past 12mths what I though they would - I expected them to have started clinical trials by now but the clinical hold has pushed everything out by at least 6 months.

However they have made progress in the last 12mths:

- Further engagement with Biodefense opportunity - networking and learning

- A number of really encouraging updates on CB

- The Company's scientists have identified a target protein that can be incorporated into a single multipurpose CBR-based therapeutic capable of treating multiple viruses that belong to different viral families, instead of having to make a separate CBR construct for every virus.

- POC In Vitro for a number of cancers - with potential to

- Being tested against live Viruses in biological level three ("BSL-3") facility

- CEO has been pitching the huge potential of CBR to investment community (with support from Prevail)

- Patent Application published

Closer to clinical Trials with CAR-T - despite the CH, we now know that the FDA only added the Hold for one single issue, as issue that the FDA subsequently approved Hemo's plan to address. The re-manufacturing of the 'lentivirus' is complete and the company are now within days or weeks of resubmitting IND to the FDA. Most encouragingly, the recent RNS states that Hemo are further accelerating to meet their ambitious schedule

- 1% stake take by Prevail Partner following a rigorous due diligence process. (invested at a big premium to share price)

- Raised £5.1m from three events - £4m through placing @2.5p. Prevail direct investment @6p and £0.5m Placing at 2.38p

- Vlad awarded Share Options equivalent to c5% of the company - expire 2028/29 - About half of which have an exercise price of 2.5p and the remainder vest when Hemo commence clinical trials with an exercise price of 2.875p.

- In that time the mCap of the company has doubled - so whilst the share price is not where many shareholders would like it has not performed too shabbily in the last 12mth. Check your watchlists and other holdings and see how many of the have double in mCap in that time. Its been a really tough global market for most equities - especially small ones that need to raise capital. Lesser business are going under - so when a company like Hemo can raise £5m, survive an extremely tough period for small businesses and emerge with such potential in the next year it's a brilliant place to be.

A genuine good luck to Hemo and all it's shareh

Seemingly so - and he had a LOT at one point!

However, worth noting the next part of the conversation in which he talked about buying back in soon and what a great opportunity it is down here

Responding to HT

Lots of "ifs" in that argument...

Ofcourse there is, if (oh look there's another one) all that was 100% factually going to happen we would not be having this exchange. I think it will, but I cannot guarantee it nor would I

You could say the same about any share, "if" it finds oil/ gold/ trials successful...

Possibly, but there has been more than enough updates from Hemo to suggest the events i have discussed are very likely

Could you buy any company on here for their current SP ???

Not personally, but yes I am sure there are a few

We didn't have a party when the SP was last 10p

Or did we ;-)

Correction to 7th line. S/B "The SP is NOT a reflection"

HT - as ever, you are more than entitled to your opinion.

As it happens, I did top up at 2.9p the other day

I also topped up at 2.32p this week.

And i'd love to top up again soon at these levels.

Strangely i agree with you on your final point that "my valuation of the company is completely irrelevant to the SP"

That was my point you dingo - The SP is a reflection of my valuation, your valuation or Vlad's valuation. It is simply the current price at which a very small % shares are transacted. As a LTHer I have no intention of selling at these prices - the current SP, in my opinion, is not representative of the true worth of the company

Let make it simple for you. If i wanted to but Hemogenyx today do you really think I could pick it up for £25m?

I would estimate that just buying enough shares to hit the 3% threshold would double the current share price.

The SP works at these levels whilst just a trickle of shares exchange hands.

If/when the CH is removed, trials start, major funding secured, CBR takes a significant step further or dare i even say it CAR-T performs well in Phase 1 trials the demand for shares will be much higher, the willngness for existing holders to sell shares will be much lower and before you know it Bob's your uncle, Fanny is your aunt , Hemo's SP is 10p and we'll be sharing a beer at the 10p party.

Capeesh?

Moniman - on what basis or evidence would you suggest there may be a profit warning?

Here's some evidence why I think there is no issue with profits:

1. The interim results shared in July stated: "strong momentum seen in Q2 has thus far been carried into the early part of Q3 of our 2023 financial year and this combined with the focus on gross margin by continuing to buy for less and sell for more, and cost savings introduced, mean the Board is confident of the Group meeting its full year expectations.

2. Gross Margin grew in H1 by 3%pts YOY

3. Despite lower revenue, H1 EBITDA was up year on year

4. Profitability increasing due to MMAG startegy to drive more direct and more rentals

Micky

IMO - The placing has contributed to the drop of 0.8p because it has encouraged some to sell and has increased the supple of shares - esp in the short term give the turnover of placing shares we've become accustomed to

However, quite frankly, as with 1 or 2 other stocks I own, i consider the current SP an irrelevence for me because:

1 - It does not reflect my valuation of the company - its just a reflection on the price at which traders are happy to buy and sell at which allows the MMs to make a market.

2 - I have no intention or necessity to sell

3 - Saving the best til last - it does provide me with an opportunity to add. I have done so and hope to do more depending on what happens with other holdings i own

AimHigherStill - You are correct.

I manage to block out on my main holding - mainly because I know that I am better researched than they are and can see through they FUD

I'm not so qualified or researched on QBT. I came here initially because it looked a no brainer at 1.5p. I also bought at 2p.

I've had a tough week though and for my own mental health I will have to sit this one out.

But for absolute avoidance of doubt, I wish you all well. I hope this goes to the moon for you and hope you all hear a lot less from the Bobs and co

I will keep an eye on both QBT and BTC - knowing me I wont be able to resist if i see the it start moving again

Too late for me though - Sadly, this board squeezed out all the enthusiasm I had for this share.

Good luck to those with more resolve than me; my main investment is elsewhere and have to deal with it's own brigade of trolls. I no longer had the time or patience to deal with two BB and two sets of trolls.

I'm sure the trolls will go quite and this will rocket - when the trolls have achieved their mission OR like you guys have reported the value of BTC starts breaking out again

Wowsers