Member Info for HedgeHogarth

Simon - I am absolutley perplexed that the shares are still sitting at this value.

Some will see the share price performance - with their glass half empty wondering what they've misses and that there is a reason why the strong operational and growth has not translated to an increase in the share price.

I am as confident as I can be that there are no gremlins here - I no longer try to guess or theorise why the SP is not higher; I'm sticking with my own assessment and will hold as long as I need to hit my 50p target.

I hope to see more bullish holders on here in 2024 and look forward to sharing thoughts and opinions on their 2024/5 plans and performance.

I've dipped my toe in at sub 1.5p - I love the risk/reward here

The progress the company has made in the last 3-6 months has been really positive

They raised £7m barely less than 3 months ago at 17p a share - even when the need for additional liquidy in H1 2024 was very clear and obvious

They are also working with some big players who will have done their due dilligence - it feels like it's simply a short term liquidity issue - albeit a big one

I expect to see a lot of volatility in the coming weeks

TYLO - It is there job as market maker.

When you want to sell some shares - THEY BUY

When you want to buy some shares - THEY SELL

The are not doing much volume on either

Morning Tilly - totally with you chap

A few thoughts from me....

1. I do not think the share price is in as tough a situation as everyone else on here. Last autumn after the CH it was sub 2p for long periods. It is now close to double that and there has been a significant volume of buys between 3p and 6p over the last 6 weeks. The SP spiked on the news which has contributed to the retreat to 3p - had it not spiked I think we would be in the 4-5p range.

2. We should not be paranoid about shorts or let it dominate our foum IMO. But we should all be cognisant that there are some significant 'short' position out there right now in whatever form they take (Spread bet, CFD etc) and we've also seen a huge number of block sells which suggests that Trading accounts have disposed of most of their Hemo shares. I beleive this is important as a represents a genuine catalyst to the upside when these are closed and/or traders re-stock on Hemo shares.

3. Funding is the big topic of conversation in town and rightly so. I'm still hopeful that we'll see a different approach to the normal discounted placing. Hemo have been promoted to the next division and I expect the funding event to reflect that. I've revised down my thoughts on how much they may 'need'to raise - I don't think the CAR-T Phase 1 trial will be hugely expensive; Vlad took the decision to manufacture in house so many of the production costs are covered in BAU Opex (The people and the premisis) and I'm led to beleive that they have enough lentivirus manufactured to comfortabaly see them through the initial Phase. However, I would like to see Hemo raise a decent amount in order to take some of the liquidity pressure away which will allow them to focus on their product cadidates more and put them in a stronger psoition to cut commercial deals. (and allow them mofre resources to accelearte CBR developement)

4. I spend a lot less time on this forum now: I worry less about the likes of what Stu says. I uses to be a little paranoid that he knew more than me, but I no longer believe that. I no longer believe this forum is as influential as I once did - I've spoken to a number of professional investors and C-Suite and they have all dismissed these foums as nothing but rubbish from keyboard warriors and small time traders. Stu is clearly intelligent and and is quite good at fabricating his tactics on this forum - but its just a game. The RNS are not the cryptic puzzles he would lead you to believe and we are all guilty of attaching too much significance to each word in them.

I find that the RNS, good market research and a curious mind are the best tools for me and my investments

Good luck everyone - Still hope to meet some of the leg-ends on here at some point when we feel our loyalty and judgement has been vindicated. Perhaps good results at Phase 1 would represent a good time or a commercial deal?

What say you TillyWhizz, Saint, dHub, JHFH, Let it Roll, Chris123, Hulver, Haywain, Sp

Agree, the Cannacord move was baffling and I still don't know where thos shares have gone....

I actually reached out to the Takeover Panel to get some guidance on:

(1) The conditions of staying in 'offer period'

(2) Whilst in offer period, can they confirm if concessions are made and in what circumstances where a party may not declare a 1% holding.

Their response suggested they are happy to help answer and wanted my phone number and would pass on to a case officer

Josey - why and who would be buying and selling to do something to their average?

Please explain the significance of this and who would be doing that?

Not in my opinion...

1) Because they were sold for 11p - so who would be flogging them for sub 11p

2) They were not bought by Shore Capital ; and I do not see why any MM would want to take on that volume of shares without a buyer lined up

3) Over 4m shares traded the day after Cannacord sold their last 3m

4) Schroder have disposed of a few after Cannacord

Not long to go now until we see the full 12mth results for XP.

So far we know the revenue performance and have positive indicators on Gross Margin and EBITDA

XP posted a (£1.5m) loss in H1; this was £2.3m EBITDA less £2.9m depreication and a one off Fair Value adj relating to the final Boom settlement

I expect them to deliver £8-9m EBITDA in H2 - and would not expect depreciation to be any higher than £3.5m.

So i am expecting to see XP announce a profit of £2-£4m.

You would not know it from this forum, but lets not forget they did post a profit in FY22 as well

I expect Profits of c£7.5m in 2024/25 and c£11m in 2025/26 based on Organic Growth only

I beleive they may have acheived >£10m operating cashflow in 2023 and expect this to head towards £20m per annum by 2026

This is why I beleive they will be targeted at such a low share price.

Funnily enough Hulver i flagged that to JHFH last week :-)

Percy was a decent golfer, played off 2 (handicap) and was one of the best players at West Dean Golf Club.

One summer, a new crop of golfers joined the club; they were keen, practiced a lot and before long seemingly knew every inch of the course,

However, they were no match for Percy; he always seemed to beat them and it was not long until they made the games a little more interesting and put a few quid on each hole. OK, so he did lose the occasional match and would lose a few holes - but Percy knew that he always would come out on top. If all else failed he usually went 'double or quits' and would win on the 18th!

Things carried on this way for a while although the gap between the players was narrowing. One day though these golfers found a new club to play. This club was more professional; It had a number of county players and only let in new members if they met a tough set of criteria and passed a number of tough tests.

Percy did not care though, he just carried on playing his golf at West Dean

A year or so later Percy had a great run in the local county championship reaching the latter rounds where things were getting pretty serious. Everything was going so well for Percy. In the semi-final he was drawn against a familiar face - it was of his old foes who used to be a member of West Dean. Percy was rubbing his hands together with glee

The day arrived and boy!, did Percy take a pasting. He had underestimated his opponent who had made some new friends, mastered some new shots and had recently been awarded their county badge (a real milestone that permitted his opponent to start playing with and against the best in the counyy) . They'd put the usual wagers on and shortly after the turn (Hole 10 out of 18 for non golfers) and a much earlier than usual, Percy was well down so he doubled up but it did not go well this time....Percy doubled up on the 10th, 11th and 13th.

Percy felt sick - his oppenent was a no longer the novice, no longer a chance for Percy to make easy money.

Percy was walking to the 16th tee with 3 holes to play and three holes down, having won just 3 of the first 15 holes. Percy was staring at defeat and the prospect of handing over a wad of cash equivalent to about half of everything he'd ever won from his plucky opponent.

I will leave the story there for now - but here were Percy's 2 main options:

1. Aim to play out the last 3 holes with a focus on purely forcing an extra hole to progress to the final - i.e. no more side bets

2. Go again, agree a 'double or quits' on the 16th putting himself under intense pressure and risk doubling his losses

They are NOT sells at that price. Some sort of roll-over or bed and isa? Or short position closing. Or spreadex buying or selling

Simon - some of the sells were mine sadly. I was shuffling my portfolio a little to free up cash for one or two other positions where tie was a factor.

I've still got a very nice holding here and hope to add to that when funds allow.

Just the one week left of February and we are into March which is when we'll see the results

I'm not convinced there is too much I will learn from them: ofcourse we'll get more detail on the numbers and activities but we already know that Plan A is to seek new owners.

The 'post period' updates will be interesting but I would not expect the Results RNS to provide much insight on the process to find new owners; that RNS is one that can drop any time, before or after the results

Who knew, we have a professional investor spending hours of his time posting on this forum. Pffft….

The statement of fact is that a Hemo have achieved undeniable progress in the last 18mths.

People seem to forget the significant due diligence carried out by biotech investments specialist Prevail. The saw enough to invest significantly. Almost certainly we willl se further investment from Prevail.

The odds are starting to turn for Hemo.

RedOlive

You are confusing the market cap with the value of the company.

This is particularly relevent when the company is in an offer period

The share price (and resultant mCap) represents the price at which shares are being exchanged in relatively small volumes. I'm still beleive there is more to the Cannacord disposal than meets the eye and we don't know who has picked them up

The big question is whether 10p is still the price per share if you wanted to acquire 10-20% of the company from the 80% holders who have held since IPO

That's why many of us believe that 30-50p is a better indication of what the market value of the company is

This should explain in more detail:

https://www.ruleoneinvesting.com/blog/financial-control/market-capitalization/

IMHO - The traders are down to fumes now on any remaining shares they have left to sell and I imagine are highly geared with short positions.

Funding is seemingly the big unkown and likely to be a big catalyst for the share price.

However, there are other catalysts with CAR-T trials starting in the next few months and an acceleration in the development of CBR.

Sorry Saint. Back in my box

SLIPPERY STU

I'm still waiting for that RNS you promised us all that you assure us all thet Hemo would have to RNS if they were not going clincial in 2023.

As for funding - there are many possible answers to your questions; and whilst nothing has been announced we have no ideas whether one has been secure or not so please I suggest you don't jump to the wrong conclusion

Over decades of Biotech history - going clincial is an inflection point, as is success at at Phase 1 trials. And as recap - of the clinical trial phases, success at Phase 1 has been greater than phases 2 and 3.

Robswire - That is without doubt my favourite contribution you have made to this forum

Thank you

If i was buying Currys for £700m+....

I would, with no hesitation, consider buying Music Magpie to go with it for £50m

I think it would truly compliment the Currys asset and provide plenty of synergies