Member Info for Hedgehog100

There's solid value here, unlike a lot of very small cap. stocks on AIM.

As a reminder, and for newbies:

OSI's co-founder and CEO, David Guyatt, has massive previous success as a co-founder and CEO ... resulting in his company being sold for a cool one billion dollars.

"David Guyatt
CO-FOUNDER AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER

Co-founder of Osirium, the management team is led by David Guyatt, who has over 30 years’ experience in turning next generation IT products into successful technology businesses. He is a recognised pioneer in establishing the content security software market, being a co-founder and CEO of the Content Technologies group, which created MIMEsweeper and became the recognised world leader in content security solutions, with a 40 per cent global market share, and was sold for $1Bn within 5 years, the largest European cyber security acquisition at the time.

Previously, David was Sales & Marketing Director at Integralis from 1990 to 1996, as it established itself as Europe’s leading IT security integrator - now part of the NTT group."

https://www.osirium.com/people/david-guyatt

At just 4.05p, nearly 20% below the recent placing price of 5p, BRES looks well oversold to me, & due a good bounce.

"A Wildly Bullish Graphite Stocks Forecast For 2022
We predict 2022 to have at least one wildly bullish cycle for graphite stocks
November 21, 2021"
https://investinghaven.com/forecasts/graphite-stocks-forecast-2022/

Nigel Wray has increased his holding in OTAQ, from 4,576,232 shares to 5,964,868 shares.
So it looks like he has bought 1,388,636 shares in the recent placing, at 22p each, = £305,499.92.

11/01/2022 16:45 UK Regulatory (RNS & others) Holding(s) in Company LSE:OTAQ Otaq Plc
"... 3. Details of person subject to the notification obligation iv
Name NIGEL WRAY
City and country of registered office (if applicable) LONDON
4. Full name of shareholder(s) (if different from 3.) v
Name JARVIS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED
City and country of registered office (if applicable) LONDON
5. Date on which the threshold was crossed or reached vi: 11 JANUARY 2022
6. Date on which issuer notified (DD/MM/YYYY): 11 JANUARY 2022 ...
Resulting situation on the date on which threshold was crossed or reached
15.83% 15.83% 5,964,868
Position of previous notification (if applicable)
14.58% 14.58% ..."
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/otaq-OTAQ/share-news/Holdings-in-Company/86993847

Acuere,

There are c. 95.82 million GENI shares in issue (95,816,866 to be exact).
Anything above 3% of that, i.e. c. 2.87M. shares, is a notifiable interest.
When that threshold is crossed, in either direction, it has to be notified to the market.
In the case of David Evans, that would be a sale of under 500,000, and the seller has sold far more than that, without notifying the market.
So that rules out David Evans as the seller.
And indeed any other significant shareholder, as they would have crossed a 1% threshold above 3% by now, which also requires notification to the market.

So if the seller was starting with under 2,874,505 shares, how much can they have left (if any), after months of selling?
There was a sale of 420,821 shares in one trade yesterday alone.

And the large size, and odd number of shares, in that trade is interesting.
You often find that a sale of an odd number of shares marks the last of a holding, especially a large one.

Two trades have been reported late:

Recent Share Trades for Genincode (GENI)
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
11-Jan-22 09:29:20 31.10 420,821 Unknown* 32.00 34.00 130.88k O
11-Jan-22 17:06:33 33.00 100,000 Unknown* 32.00 34.00 33.00k O
11-Jan-22 13:51:50 32.00 100,000 Unknown* 32.00 34.00 32.00k O
11-Jan-22 11:14:12 32.50 100,000 Unknown* 32.00 35.00 32.50k O
11-Jan-22 09:44:07 32.00 100,000 Unknown* 32.00 35.00 32.00k O
11-Jan-22 09:43:28 32.50 100,000 Unknown* 32.00 35.00 32.50k O

So I suspect that all, or most, of the 100,000 trades are buys.

That is very bullish - the fact that someone is buying in such big quantities.

And obviously a very astute buyer, as they're waiting for the seller to move first, and then buying up the available stock.

Once the supply of stock dries up (if it hasn't already), this should move upwards strongly.

Only thank you, for letting the world know that you're a deramping troll.

Previously, I and others may have been taking you seriously.

Now we all know that you can simply be ignored.

Today's fallback of 2.2% is under half of yesterday's gain, and a stepped rise is fine by me.

And here are today's trades:-

Recent Share Trades for Genincode (GENI)
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
11-Jan-22 13:51:50 32.00 100,000 Unknown* 32.00 34.00 32.00k O
11-Jan-22 11:14:12 32.50 100,000 Unknown* 32.00 35.00 32.50k O
11-Jan-22 09:44:07 32.00 100,000 Unknown* 32.00 35.00 32.00k O
11-Jan-22 09:43:28 32.50 100,000 Unknown* 32.00 35.00 32.50k O

I.e. volume of 400,000, consisting of two buys of 100,000, and two sells of 100,000.

So why not mention a 'big buyer', as that would be the change?

And as regards what we both said yesterday -

Hedgehog100 Mon 09:57
" ... How do you know that the big seller isn't finished? ... "

To which you rather bizarrely replied -

donmac101 Mon 10:48
" ... I didnt say they were finished . ..."

Presumably that was a typo though, and you meant "I didn't say they weren't finished".

In which case we were in agreement yesterday: i.e. neither of us could be certain if the selling had finished or not, and I certainly didn't claim certainty that it had.

Now you're trying to look clever in hindsight, probably because that's easy, and is the only chance you get.

Well, GENI has finished the day up 1.75p (5.5%), at 33.75p.

The s.p. only rose today, in four steps, with no fallbacks.

And this is actually GENI's best one day rise since August, as is befitting today's good news.

Just two or three more days like this and we could be back in the upper 30s, which would be a good base from which to build further.

10th Jan 2022 10:30 am EQS Result of GM, Completion of Placing, Issue of Equity, TVR & PDMR Dealing

OTAQ, the marine technology products and solutions group for the global aquaculture and offshore oil and gas industries, confirms that all resolutions put to shareholders at the General Meeting held earlier today in connection with the Placing announced on 15 December 2021, were duly passed on a poll. ...

The Placing remains conditional, inter alia, upon Admission (as defined below) and the Placing Agreement not being terminated in accordance with its terms.

Completion of Placing and Issue of Equity

Under the terms of the Placing the Company has raised net proceeds of GBP1.23 million which will strengthen the Company's balance sheet and meet its near-term working capital requirements to enable the Company to take advantage of the significant accessible opportunities available to OTAQ in its target addressable markets.

Application has been made for the Placing Shares to be admitted to listing on the standard segment of the Official List and to trading on London Stock Exchange, the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities. It is expected that admission of the Placing Shares will become effective and dealings in the Placing Shares will commence at 8.00 a.m. on or around 11 January 2022 ("Admission"). ...

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/OTAQ/result-of-gm-completion-of-placing-issue-of-equity-tvr-pdmr-dealing-bbbcyt6v35uizqd.html

6th Nov 2018 7:00 am RNS RENX Admission to AIM and First Day of Dealings
"Renalytix AI plc (AIM: RENX), a developer of artificial intelligence ("AI") enabled clinical diagnostic solutions for kidney disease, announces the admission of its ordinary shares ("Ordinary Shares") to trading on AIM ("Admission"). Dealings in the Ordinary Shares will commence today under the ticker "RENX" and ISIN GB00BYWL4Y04.
The Company's Admission Document is available from www.renalytixai.com/investors
Transaction highlights
· £22.25 million raised through a placing, US subscription and restricted offer to shareholders of EKF Diagnostics Holdings plc ("EKF") (the "Fundraising") at a price £1.21 per Ordinary Share (the "Issue Price")
· 53,816,134 Ordinary Shares in issue at Admission ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/RENX/result-of-placing-total-voting-rights-j4q2kio1sm0ds62.html

I don't think we will be complaining if GENI performs like RENX.

RENX floated about three years ago at 121p, with a similar IPO fundraising and market cap. to GENI's.

By last summer it had ten-bagged.

And though it's fallen back since then, it's still 560p, market cap. £405M.

Recent Share Trades for Genincode (GENI)
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
10-Jan-22 08:53:36 32.85 10,000 Buy* 32.00 33.00 3,285 O
10-Jan-22 08:14:50 32.98 4,902 Buy* 32.00 33.00 1,617 O
10-Jan-22 08:00:25 32.00 17 Sell* 32.00 33.00 5.44 O

Don,

The only trades so far today of any substance are buys, and the s.p. is up.

Considering that GENI's last up day was three months ago, that is not to be sniffed at!

How do you know that the big seller isn't finished?

Today's news is very positive, and could mark a turning point for the share.

10th Jan 2022 7:00 am RNS FDA Pre-Submission for Cardio inCode-SCORE

... The GENinCode Cardio inCode test is a patent protected in-vitro diagnostic genomic test system used to assess the risk of onset of CVD and recurrent myocardial events. The test provides a comprehensive CVD risk assessment by combining both genetic and clinical risk factors using GENinCode's proprietary software and algorithms to produce a personalised CVD risk score. GENinCode processes and delivers the Cardio inCode-SCORE test via its online 'cloud based' portal to physicians.

Over the past 15 years GENinCode has invested significantly in its research, bioinformatic data, technology and product development to assess disease risk to prevent CVD. Using the predictive capability of genomics, GENinCode has a vision to assist clinicians and inform patients of their cardiovascular risk and improve public health.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GENI/fda-pre-submission-for-cardio-incode-score-rypjdtrxlhf7srn.html

10th Jan 2022 7:00 am RNS FDA Pre-Submission for Cardio inCode-SCORE

... The Cardio inCode-SCORE test assesses an individual's inherited genetic (DNA) risk of cardiovascular disease together with their clinical risk to provide a comprehensive risk assessment of CVD for use in primary preventative care. It also addresses the well-recognised need for improvement in CVD standard of care practices. The test provides a greatly improved estimation of an individual's risk of a CVD event (e.g. heart attack) particularly within a 10-year period following the test. Cardio inCode-SCORE provides a step change in patient risk assessment for CVD thereby providing a major improvement in preventative care, patient management, diagnosis, and personalised treatment.

The current standard of care for assessing cardiovascular risk is primarily based on traditional clinical risk factors such as age, sex, smoking, body mass, blood pressure and cholesterol levels from which individuals are categorised as being at low, moderate or high risk of a CVD event. This categorisation is imperfect as CVD events frequently occur in those thought to be at low or moderate risk. The size of the populations at low or moderate risk are much larger than those at high or very high risk so whilst the relative risk of a CVD event may be small, the absolute number of CVD events in low and moderate risk populations is much greater than the number of events in higher risk categories.

Genetic assessment will help to identify individuals in low or moderate risk populations who are at higher risk of a CVD event than their traditional clinical risk categorisation would suggest. This allows earlier in-life preventative measures to be put in place to lower their future risk.

Clinicians have for many years recognised the importance of prior CVD events within the families of their patients because genetic factors contribute to the development of atherosclerosis and a patient's family history has become a surrogate for their inherited genetic risk. In recent years, with the advances of genomics, it has proved possible to add genetic profiling to conventional CVD risk factors, the combination of the two (genetics and conventional clinical risk factors) enhancing the predictive capability of patient risk thereby resulting in a more 'personalised' approach to patient care. ...

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GENI/fda-pre-submission-for-cardio-incode-score-rypjdtrxlhf7srn.html

10th Jan 2022 7:00 am RNS FDA Pre-Submission for Cardio inCode-SCORE

FDA Pre-Submission filed for Cardio inCode-SCORE

Commencement of regulatory pathway for US market approval

Oxford, UK. GENinCode Plc (AIM: GENI), the predictive genetics company focused on the prevention of cardiovascular disease, announces the filing of its Pre-Submission for Cardio inCode-SCORE with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Cardio inCode-SCORE is an in-vitro diagnostic test which assesses an individual's combined genetic and clinical risk to predict and prevent cardiovascular disease ("CVD").

Following extensive exchange of information and constructive discussions with the FDA, GENinCode has been invited by the FDA to file its Pre-Submission for Cardio inCode-SCORE. This marks the commencement of the regulatory pathway for US market approval, which is anticipated later this year. The FDA views Pre-Submission as a structured process for managing and tracking interactions between manufacturers and the FDA about the application for approval or clearance, prior to final submission. It is an interactive process designed to give the opportunity to obtain FDA feedback on the application with the goal of making the end submission process more efficient.

Matthew Walls, CEO of GENinCode Plc, said: "Despite the delays driven by the pandemic, the filing of the Cardio inCode FDA Pre-Submission marks the start of the US regulatory approval pathway and ongoing preparation for the launch of Cardio inCode-SCORE later this year. Recognition of inherited genetic contribution to the onset of cardiovascular disease continues to grow. We are well placed to improve the CVD standard of care by identifying individuals at high genetic risk who can be advised on lifestyle choices and access to personalised treatment to improve future health outcomes."

GENinCode specialises in polygenic risk assessment of CVD, the leading cause of death and disability worldwide. CVD is a broad disease classification which encompasses conditions such as coronary artery disease (causing angina, heart attack and heart failure), cerebrovascular disease (causing stroke, and some dementia), peripheral vascular disease (causing limb ischaemia, and some chronic kidney disease) and venous thromboembolism. CVD accounts for an estimated 17.9 million deaths globally each year and accounts for 1 in every 4 deaths in the United States. By 2030 the global cost of CVD is set to rise from approximately US$863 billion in 2010 to US$1,044 billion and is both a major health issue and global economic burden. ...

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GENI/fda-pre-submission-for-cardio-incode-score-rypjdtrxlhf7srn.html

"Thanks HH for the report, it makes excellent reading.
Where do you the sp will be trading based on the estimated figures you have given?"

Thanks Mcfcnige.

Not sure in the short term.

Short term profit taking could restrict the rise from what is really warranted, as AIM investors are so used to pump-&-dump spikes.

But further out, I share the consensus view that CRCL should be going a lot higher.

"JORC Resource of 162.5 million tonnes @ 0.94% Ni and 0.09% Co (1.53 million tonnes of nickel)"
https://www.corcelplc.com/projects/mambare/

"JORC Resource of 125 million tonnes @ 01.06% Ni and 00.07% Co (1.33 million tonnes nickel + 83k tonnes of cobalt)"
https://www.corcelplc.com/projects/wo-wo-gap/

CRCL has average Mambare-WoWoGap nickel grades of about 1%.

NPC is seeking to purchase up to 0.5Mt per annum of nickel DSO products from the Mambare and WoWo Gap projects.
= About 5,000 tonnes of nickel p.a.
x c. US$20,000/tonne nickel = c. US$100M. p.a.

So Mcfcnige,

I don't think that he's really saying/hinting that the potential deal could be worth many multiples of current market cap., but that's not to say that it couldn't be worth multiples of the current market cap.

The £55M. figure is what an infrastructure fund could be spending to develop the gas peaker assets, and in consequence they will take the lion's share of the assets.

A sum of £2.1M. has been touted as the acquisition payment to CRCL, plus an ongoing free carry to CRCL, i.e. CRCL retain a portion of the asset, but don't have to fund their share.

But what hasn't really been discussed is the worth of that free carry.

Well, my understanding from the interview is that the £2M. p.a. figure is either what could be CRCL's free carry income, or perhaps 70% of that (i.e. £1.4M. p.a.) to reflect their current 70% aggregate ownership of the assets.
This is in view of the question that the £2M. figure was given in reply to, and the fact that £2M. p.a. seems implausibly low for the projects as a whole, i.e. £82K./MW revenue p.a. for 100MW, and investors seeking double digit returns on the £55M.

So how much would an ongoing, tax-free (because of prior tax losses) revenue stream of that amount be worth to CRCL?
Especially as it could more than cover CRCL's annual overheads (with the nickel projects being funded at the project level, not the company level).
And with more such FGS (flexible grid solutions) projects in CRCL's pipeline.

There may be some market scepticism until the deal is actually delivered, as it would be the first time CRCL has monetised such assets.
But once they do, it will prove their FGS business model, so there should be more market confidence in CRCL's FGS arm going forward.

"PODCAST WITH SCOTT KAINTZ THE CEO OF CORCEL PLC
PODCAST No. 144
An Update from Scott Kaintz, CEO of Corcel PLC # CRCL"
https://stockboxmedia.com/podcasts/podcast-with-scott-kaintz-the-ceo-of-corcel-plc/

Mcfcnige,

Here are my paraphrased notes from the Avonmouth-Tring part of that interview:

Press speculation a couple of months ago re. unloading their gas peaker assets.
Peaking was out of favour in H1, when picked up, but now well in favour - recognition that needed, & give good returns, which they have done recently.
Hope to be able to complete in near term; completion should be the next announcement re. - one fund funding both.
Would love to announce it before Christmas, though it may be after.
A couple of weeks left before Xmas.
But lots of due diligence required for these.
Could generate £2M. p.a. revenue. £82K./MW revenue p.a.
Much income guaranteed by government for 15 years., so low risk.
The projects can then switch to hydrogen, when the hydrogen production has developed, so the ideal transitional asset.
Could announce that have raised £55M. with an infrastructure fund for 2 peaker projects: should have big effect on s.p.

CyberArk Software (CYBR) is a US company which is like a larger version of OSI:
https://www.cyberark.com/

It is quoted on the NASDAQ, with a market cap. of US$6.296 billion, annual revenue of US$464.43M., and annual losses of US$53.36M.

OSI looks like an ideal bolt-on acquisition for CYBR.

Especially in view of this interesting link between the two companies:

"CyberArk and Osirium integration + automation
CyberArk and Osirium integrations couldn’t be easier with the Tray Platform’s robust CyberArk and Osirium connectors, which can connect to any service without the need for separate integration tools."
https://tray.io/connectors/cyberark-osirium-integrations

And in the period 2015-2020, OSI invested about £7.6M. into research and development, a sum far greater than its current market cap. at 15p (£4.41M.)

So it's taken a lot of time and money to develop OSI's products.
Even if another company wanting such products were prepared to invest that much on R&D, and had the necessary skilled staff, they wouldn't have the time if they wanted to effectively exploit a market that is taking off right now.

Add in the value of OSI's SAAS contracts, partnerships, and skilled staff, then its current takeover value could be multiples of its current level.

Bearing in mind the high valuations in this sector, and the investor appetite for such stocks, then you with think that investors would be quite happy to fund such an acquisition.

Earl,

I think that OSI's offering as a whole is related to ransomware protection, because PAM (privileged access management) is so important for that:
https://www.osirium.com/resources/privileged-access-management

The last patent granted was under a year ago, and interestingly was granted in the USA, which bodes well for its continued expansion into America:

1st Feb 2021 7:00 am RNS New Patent Granted
"Osirium Technologies plc (AIM: OSI.L), a leading vendor of cloud-based cybersecurity software, is pleased to announce it has been granted a new patent in the field of authentication services by the US Patent and Trade Mark office.
The patent (United States Patent number: 10,826,887), approved in November 2020, is for Osirium's 'Shadow Authentication' technology. This new technology uniquely addresses a challenge experienced by Managed Security Service Providers (MSSPs) in situations where they are not permitted direct access to their customers' Active Directory servers.
Shadow Authentication allows MSSP customers to request a password change that will be intercepted and processed by Osirium's Privileged Access Management platform, Osirium PAM. The benefit for the MSSP is that its operators or system administrators will not be interrupted by the request and do not need to know either the previous password or the customer's password rules. Likewise, the benefits for the end customer are improved time savings, greater security and enhanced confidence from the certainty and knowledge that staff at the MSSP never have sight of their passwords.
The patent builds on Osirium's track record of innovation in privileged access, including a series of patents previously granted for credential management.
David Guyatt, Chief Executive Officer, commented: "Our continuing commitment to innovation has been a key factor in our success over the years. Our customers value it as it gives them new ways to address increasing security challenges, and our partners look for it, as it gives them compelling competitive differentiators."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/OSI/new-patent-granted-xuxnpmhtm4yuhmx.html

The fact that OSI's products have a range of patent protection represents both a powerful competitive barrier, and a very valuable asset:

"The intellectual property of Osirium includes 7 registered patents primarily in the 'Computing; Calculating' category, according to IPqwery."
https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/osirium/technology