Member Info for Hedgehog100

Diversified Posts: 1,914 Price: 40.75 Strong Buy
Stifel broker note 175p TP 10 Sep '21
"'@Stifel initiate coverage for @GenIncode with a BUY rating - "With US launch planned for 2022 and potential for sales to reach $225m by 2028E, we see significant upside to the shares." Target price 175p #GENI"

Diversified,

I'd be interested to know what profit could be earned from that US$225M. of potential GENI revenues in 2028.

Health sector margins can be extremely high when there is strong IP and barriers to entry like GENI's.

Bioventix (BVXP) for example has pre-tax profit margins of 74%:

18th Oct 2021 7:00 am PRN Results for the year ended 30 June 2021
"... Highlights:
* Revenue up 6% to £10.93 million (2020: £10.31 million)
* Profit before tax down 1% to £8.12 million (2020: £8.23 million) ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BVXP/results-for-the-year-ended-30-june-2021-9w94oo7e0ioauzj.html

And at its current sp. of 3,095p, BVXP has a market cap. of £161.23M., i.e. 14.75 times full year revenues.

Applying that ratio to GENI'S potential 2028 sales of US$225M. would give a market cap. of US$3,318M.: i.e. about £2.5 billion at current exchange rates.

Compared to GENI's current market cap. of £27.31 million at 28.5p.

How is correcting Don's factual inaccuracy ramping?!

Anyone of class, and accuracy, would have apologised for their mistake, and retracted it, but not Don.

That is rather sad.

MILA looks to me to have attractive lower risk multibagger potential.

22nd Dec 2021 7:00 am RNS High Grade Gold & Silver Results: Kathleen Valley

" ... "... Neil Hutchison, Chief Geologist of Mila Resources, commented:

"This has to be one of the most consistent and best overall gold intersections I've seen in my 30-year career. The top of the mineralisation is only 150m vertically below surface, which is shallow compared to neighbouring gold deposits and WA in general.

"The initial resource model at Coffey was a very linear plate based on the original drilling. The southern and deeper holes (KVDD013, KVRC017 & KVRC019) have shown a kick upwards with depth, forming a dilation zone or buckle which is very favourable for gold deposition (Figure 3). At Coffey, this is the first time the mineralised zones have contained abundant quartz veining within the sulphide and alteration zones, demonstrating this high-grade mineralisation is associated with a fundamental change in the structural geology of the deposit. This 10m wide zone of mineralisation comprises no internal waste, with all grades reporting above 3.5g/t Au and having multiple +10g/t Au & Ag grades within individual meter zones (Table 3). This style of high-grade quartz-sulphide bearing mineralisation is now starting to look similar to the Bellevue mineralisation to the south.

"The 2022 diamond drilling programme will kick-off in and around this hole so we can understand the structures forming this high-grade zone and define the interpreted north-plunging shoot in order to deliver more high-grade mineralisation."

Mark Stephenson commented:

"I have previously referred to the current JORC Resource at the Coffey Deposit of our Kathleen Valley Project as being the tip of the iceberg, and today's results certainly redouble my confidence in our Project's potential to host a sizeable gold-silver resource as we move through 2022.

"The stand-out intersection of 10m @ 8.38g/t gold and 13.96g/t silver returned in KVRC019 from 165m-175m was an early Christmas present for the team, particularly given that it gives a strong indication that the deposit will improve at depth. We look to 2022 with enormous enthusiasm as we build momentum on site at Kathleen Valley and look to translate this exploration potential into increased resource ounces to share with the market." ..."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MILA/high-grade-gold-silver-results-kathleen-valley-tezoswj1qt29elc.html

"And as to who is selling , probably David Evans as most of us here would know!"

Interesting that Don seems to think that he speaks for most other investors here ... that suggests a degree of confidence (overconfidence) in his views that doesn't seem to be supported by the facts.

MILA 's 3.12.21 commencement of drill RNS wasn't released immediately drilling had already started, as drilling samples had already been despatched and were being tested.
But apparently it had started after the 23.11.21 RTO listing, and assay results were released on 22.12.21, which is impressively fast progress.

So drilling may well already had been resumed - it was expected in mid January - with results potentially by mid February on the basis of the previous timescale.

3rd Dec 2021 7:00 am RNS Commencement of Drilling at Kathleen Valley
" ... Samples for all completed holes have been despatched and are currently being tested at an interstate independent laboratory to speed up the sample turnaround time. Mila expects to have results over the coming weeks and will update investors once they have been collated and interpreted. ...
Drilling is expected to commence in mid-January following the festive holidays in Australia. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MILA/commencement-of-drilling-at-kathleen-valley-7ux8ttyck3yyvw2.html

Finally, I've just confirmed that David Evans is actually lock-in until July 2022, which I believe settles the argument.
I hadn't checked before, because I've had no reason to think he was selling, and I'm surprised this view has persisted.
Now, who's the muppet?!

From GENI's AIM admission document, 16 July 2021, for its 22.7.21 IPO:

“Lock-in Agreements”
the lock-in agreements between the Company, each of the Directors and certain shareholders, summary details of which are set out in paragraph 12.2 of Part IV of this Admission Document

“Lock-in and Orderly Market Parties”
Jordi Puig Gilberte, Matthew Walls, Paul Foulger, William Rhodes, David Evans, Sergio Oliveró Rigau (held through Equipos MedicoBiologicos SA), Sonia Rodriguez Clemente and Santi-1990 SL (controlled by Nestor Oller)

“Lock-in Parties”
Philip Chesterfield, Richard Emslie, Thomas King, Robert Johnson, Vadim Khail and 244 West Knoll Limited (controlled by Jonathan Pinkus"

Lock-in Agreements
12.2 Lock-in and Orderly Market Agreements were entered into on 16 July 2021 by the Joint Bookrunners and the Company with each of the Lock-in and Orderly Market Parties and the Lock-in Parties, pursuant to which (i) each of the Lock-in and Orderly Market Parties has undertaken to the Company and the Joint Bookrunners, subject to certain limited exceptions, not to dispose of the Ordinary Shares held by each of them following Admission, at any time prior to the first anniversary of Admission, and (ii) each of the Lock-in Parties has undertaken to the Company and the Joint Bookrunners (subject to certain limited exceptions), not to dispose of the Ordinary Shares held by each of them following Admission, at any time prior to the six month anniversary of Admission. Each of the Lock-in and Orderly Market Parties has also undertaken to the Company and the Joint Bookrunners not to dispose of their Ordinary Shares in the period between the first anniversary and the second anniversary of Admission other than through a Joint Bookrunner on an orderly market basis.

https://investors.genincode.com/docs/genincodelibraries/default-document-library/admission-document.pdf

https://investors.genincode.com/investors/admission-document

Like most people here I imagine, I think David Evans will be intending to wait until GENI progresses its business plan, and hopefully multibags, before selling any.

It could be that he always intended stepping down at some point relatively soon after GENI floated, having helped the company achieve this important milestone, and being very busy.

The new director appointment last week, of a cardiovascular disease specialist, supports this view.
There's also another new director coming shortly, and GENI won't want the board to become too big.

But the opportunity to acquire more cheap GENI shares, with fewer restrictions, could have been an additional inducement for D.E. to resign.

Either buying for his own account, and/or for his Intuitive Investments (IIG) life sciences fund.

And investment in GENI from IIG would make perfect sense, and stepping down as a GENI director could simplify this.

Don,

Your theory is flawed, in multiple ways:

1. Big GENI selling started months before David Evans resigned.

2. I don't think it's likely D.E. would try to sell an institutional-sized stake on the market: more likely he would place it, especially with his contacts.

3. He's a specialist investor in this sector, with a tremendous track record, so he will know how good GENI is:
HTTP://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/life-sciences-industry-veteran-david-evans-launches-new-investment-company

4. He's also extremely wealthy, so won't need the money.

So I think it's far more likely that he's been buying since he resigned as a director.

Thanks Bluray.

Armadale Capital (ACP) is a good comparator to BRES, especially as it's in the neighbouring country of Tanzania :

29th Sep 2021 7:00 am RNS Half-year Report
"... The focus of the Company throughout the interim reporting period was to obtain all required permits to commence development of the high-grade long life Mahenge Liandu Graphite project.
... Estimated pre-tax NPV of US$430m and IRR of 91% ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ACP/half-year-report-4jollsi0x34l7cs.html

29th Sep 2021 7:00 am RNS Orom Cross PEA
" ... Net Present Value (NPV8) of US$317M / IRR 49% over 13-year life of mine from 2025. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BRES/orom-cross-pea-w6ekn5qj7z07rmp.html

Current ACP market capitalisation: £24.51 million at 4.55p.

Current BRES market capitalisation: £7.21 million at 4.55p.

Coincidentally both ACP and BRES are at the same s.p., which will make it easy to gauge which performs better from this point!

"Anything under IPO seems like a good price"

Ie. 2.4p: which is also the price for which director Mark Stephenson recently bought a million shares:

10th Jan 2022 7:00 am RNS Director Share Purchase
"Mila Resources Plc (LSE:MILA), the post-discovery gold exploration accelerator, has been notified that on 7 January 2022, Mark Stephenson, Executive Director of the Company, bought 1,000,000 Ordinary Shares at a price of 2.4 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares"). Following this transaction, Mark Stephenson's total beneficial interest in the Company is 6,116,761 Ordinary Shares, representing 2.00% of the total issued share capital of the Company."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MILA/director-share-purchase-4h5zo1uuxakdpd6.html

"Any idea's to why this just happened?"

When Swissydog asked that yesterday, I could have just said: Because someone has sold some shares.

Anyone with eyes can see that shares were sold yesterday, the real question is why they were sold yesterday.

We've got no idea who sold, as there's been no RNS, so we don't now if it was someone new or someone different.

You Don, don't appear to have any answers, but are just posting crass prattle.

Well Morris, last time no concerns were raised about the drug's effectiveness or safety, which are the two key criteria:

2nd Oct 2020 7:00 am RNS Update re Russian Marketing Authorisation
" ... Ovoca has been informed that the Minzdrav has not granted the MA to BP-101 following the identification of certain issues relating to the chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) and labelling sections of the MA submission dossier. The Company notes that no issues were highlighted by the Minzdrav regarding the safety or efficacy of BP-101 in the acquired generalized form of HSDD, which has been established by clinical data from two Phase 1 studies, a Phase 2a study and the pivotal Phase 3 study completed in 2019, all as conducted in the Russian Federation. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/OVB/update-re-russian-marketing-authorisation-oz9x0y7ggukj4jt.html

And the company had three months to address the other issues raised before resubmission.

OVB stated on 5th. January last year:

Kirill Golovanov, Chief Executive Officer of Ovoca Bio plc, said: "This is a positive development for Ovoca. We are confident that the questions raised by the Minzdrav, related to the CMC and labeling portions of the previous application rather than drug safety or efficacy, have been addressed in this new submission. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/OVB/re-filing-of-marketing-authorisation-application-ik1nc4u9ygv9gv7.html

Also, this is a Russian company seeking approval for marketing in Russia, which should have smoothed communications.

LSE % Gainers Top Lists
EPIC Name %
GYG Gyg +14%
TST Touchstar +10%

You can tell it's been a bad day on the markets when the top two risers are only up 14% & 10%!

Swissydog,

It's been a bad day for markets, due to concerns about military tension between Russia and Ukraine and interest rate rises.

DARK (Darktrace) for example fell 14.6% today with no company news to cause it, almost exactly the same as GENI's 14.4% fall on no news.

Markets should rebound though whether there is war or not.

Why have some stocks fallen more than others, even with no company news? I think in some cases, like GENI, it's because its liquid enough to sell quite sizeable amounts relatively quickly, but small enough for this to have quite an impact on the share price.

OVB's initial marketing authorisation application with the Russian Ministry of Health, for BP-101, took 12 months & 20 days for a decision:

12th Sep 2019 7:00 am RNS Filing of Marketing Authorisation Application

2nd Oct 2020 7:00 am RNS Update re Russian Marketing Authorisation

The reapplication was submitted 12 months and 19 days ago, so on the basis of the previous timescale news should be imminent:

5th Jan 2021 7:00 am RNS Re-Filing of Marketing Authorisation Application
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/OVB/re-filing-of-marketing-authorisation-application-ik1nc4u9ygv9gv7.html

21st Jan 2022 7:00 am RNS Proposed independent directorate appointment

... Bill Rhodes, Chair of GENinCode Plc, commented: "We are delighted to have Huon join the Board, subject to completion of the necessary formalities. Huon has extensive and expansive experience in clinical cardiology and through his relationships globally, and particularly in the US and the UK, coupled with his deep appreciation for the benefits both patients and practitioners will gain from the use of our products, there is no question he will add tremendous value to the Board, the Company and our shareholders."

Matthew Walls, CEO of GENinCode Plc, added: "Huon's background and vast experience as a leading cardiologist in both the UK and the US will be invaluable to the Company as we look towards commercialisation later in 2022. Importantly, he shares our excitement about the potential of the Company's portfolio of products to drastically improve the current standard of care worldwide."

Professor Huon Gray CBE commented: "I am delighted to be asked to join the Board of GENinCode at this important stage. Cardiovascular risk assessment in the US and UK currently comprises a series of questions related to conventional risk factors, with no genetic risk assessment. This is despite family history being one of the most significant contributing risk factors to an individual's likelihood of suffering from cardiovascular disease. Consequently, the Company's portfolio of diagnostic products have significant potential to improve the standard of care for millions who every year suffer from cardiovascular disease."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GENI/proposed-independent-directorate-appointment-x5gzl2srlyblioj.html

21st Jan 2022 7:00 am RNS Proposed independent directorate appointment

Oxford, UK. GENinCode Plc (AIM: GENI), the predictive genetics company focused on the prevention of cardiovascular disease, announces its intention to appoint Professor Huon Gray CBE, to the Board as an independent non-executive director.

Huon has 30 years' experience practising as a consultant cardiologist for the NHS and private sector, with particular experience in cardiovascular risk assessment and interventional cardiology. Huon served as the National Clinical Director for Heart Disease in the Department of Health and then NHS England from 2012-2019, advising government, all party parliamentary groups, the NHS and NICE on healthcare delivery and reform. He is a former President of the British Cardiac Society (now the British Cardiovascular Society) and was previously Chair of the International Committee of the American College of Cardiology.

In 2018, Huon was awarded the honour of Master of the American College of Cardiology, the only recipient outside of the US, and the Mackenzie Medal by the British Cardiovascular Society in 2014 in recognition of his services to British cardiology. In 2019, he was made a CBE for his services to cardiology.

Huon's exposure to the US healthcare system through his work with the American College of Cardiology over 15 years, in roles such as Trustee and Chair of its Governance Committee, will support the Company as it targets the US as one of its primary markets. Additionally, during Huon's tenure at NHS England, he acted as a liaison with industry and Academic Health Science Networks, helping deliver healthcare in the NHS through encouraging the adoption of innovation and new technology.

Huon will be appointed to the board of GENinCode following finalisation of the terms of his appointment and the completion of the necessary regulatory due diligence in accordance with the AIM Rules.

In addition, GENinCode anticipates appointing an additional independent non-executive director in the short-term. A suitably qualified US-based candidate has been identified that is an experienced healthcare industry and US FDA regulatory veteran and whom the Board believes will be very additive to GENinCode's future.

Further announcements will be made at the appropriate time. ...

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/GENI/proposed-independent-directorate-appointment-x5gzl2srlyblioj.html

I've just noticed another new Pod Point partnership, this one with EV subscription company Onto:

"Introducing our home charging partner, Pod Point

by Onto | 16th December 2021

We are thrilled to announce that we’re partnering with Pod Point, the UK’s leading home charging provider.

We want to make it as easy and accessible as possible for everyone to be able to make the switch to electric cars, and by teaming up with Pod Point it’s another great step forward. In addition to the public charging network that our subscription gives you free access to, we are now giving our customers the opportunity to add home charging too!

Why Pod Point?

Since launching in 2009, Pod Point has installed over 100,000 charging points across the UK and Norway. Pod Point are leading the way in developing EV charging infrastructure and accessibility, and we’re delighted to be able to bring their chargers to you.

With the new Pod Point Solo 3, customers can benefit from a charger that’s 3x faster than a 3-pin plug, providing up to 30 miles of range per hour, along with a range of additional features including Charge Scheduling, remote Over-the-Air updates, and Auto Power Balancing. ..."

https://on.to/blog/introducing-home-charging/

It's interesting that PODP isn't RNSing the majority of its new partnerships.

Clearly there's a lot going on behind the scenes, and PODP's full year results statement etc. on 18th. February should help to highlight this.

From NWT's website:

"Our Investment Case

We aim to deliver sustainable value for our shareholders and our broader stakeholder community through our position in high-growth, specialist markets in data and security and our long-term outlook.

? High growth technology and data business operating in rapidly evolving global markets
? Strong competitive position offering differentiated solutions with high barriers to entry
? Continued reinvestment delivering innovative, class-leading product portfolios
? Strategy to transition to a recurring revenue model in the medium-long term
? Long-standing customer relationships and high degrees of repeat business
? Experienced management team and a long history in established markets"

https://newmarksecurity.com/investor-relations/our-investment-case/

NWT's development of its software as a service (SAAS) business could potentially assist in a rerating upwards, especially if the company makes a concerted move into significant profits.

10/09/2021 06:00 UK Regulatory (RNS & others) Newmark Security PLC Final Results LSE:NWT Newmark Security Plc

" ... In our HCM businesses in particular, we continue to generate a greater proportion of our revenues from recurring services. This remains a key part of our strategy. Combined with our existing strengths in data privacy, security and providing end-to-end solutions, I believe this will be an important growth driver for the business in the years ahead.

That's why I am so excited about our newly developed Cloud platform, which we expect to launch in the winter. This will enable us to focus on both Security as a Service (SaaS) and our unique offering, Clock as a Service (ClaaS), which allows customers to choose any clock, bundled with our GT Services, and benefit from one low-cost monthly fee, with a no-quibble lifetime warranty.

... Above all, we are investing in our reputation for providing reliable and high performing hardware. That's how we have been successful in onboarding new Tier 1 clients in the US, and why we remain in negotiation with others. We are talking with several major HCM software providers about supplying them with our next generation hardware and a range of complementary Software as a Service ("SaaS") Solutions.

These services are becoming as important as the hardware for some clients. This is encouraging as we try to balance our hardware sales with our SaaS offering, which provides us with recurring income and bolsters the flow of cash into the business. We also offer Clock as a Service (ClaaS), which brings everything together by allowing customers to choose any clock, bundled with our GT services, for one low-cost monthly fee.

Managing data privacy and security

Another element of building a strong reputation is how we manage data privacy and data security, in particular biometric data, such as fingerprints and face identification. In the US, there are different rules for biometric data capture and what you can do with it, depending on which state you are in, while in Europe and the UK, we have to adhere to General Data Protection Regulation ("GDPR") rules.

It is complex, which is why we have also invested significantly in our workflow management of biometric data. That has meant gathering the consent of people for using their data in the US and Europe, and ensuring that we have annual penetration testing of our systems - both our timeclocks and our Cloud platforms. We are dealing with this ahead of any potential Federal legislation in the US, reassuring our customers that we are secure, and future proofing our systems. ..."

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/newmark-security-NWT/share-news/Newmark-Security-PLC-Final-Results/86022178