Member Info for Hedgehog100

"I think that you underestimate the intelligence of many investors."

To avoid confusion, that was a response to Bluray's last post.

I think that you underestimate the intelligence of many investors.

Warren Buffett once said: "Only when the tide goes out do you discover who has been swimming naked."

Bearish stock market conditions tend to exposed overpriced crap, and there may be little intelligent support for such shares.

Conversely, intelligent investors look to buy quality companies at times like this, which would otherwise cost far more.

Based on its very oversold technicals, and undervalued fundamentals, a significant ESYS bounce in the short term looks very plausible.

Certainly into the 100 - 125p range, and perhaps even as high as 150p.

To further illustrate how good mining shares can be in favourable market conditions.

Uru Metals (URU) is a South African nickel mining share, which may trigger memories of Uramin (UMN), a southern Africa uranium mining share.

Uramin was founded by Stephen Dattels and Jim Mellon in 2005 with just $100,000.
It floated on AIM in 2006, and was sold to Areva in 2007 for circa £1.6 billion.

Komakino,

The difference is that for Wayne Isaacs and Greg McKenzie, specific numbers etc. are given, whereas for John Zorbas none are given:
• "Mr. Isaacs ... He was the President and Director of Forsys Metals Corp. from 2003 to 2007, a TSX listed company with uranium properties in Namibia, Africa which he managed from start up to in excess of $750 million in market capitalization raising over $70 million ..."
• "Mr. McKenzie has held positions with Morgan Stanley, CIBC World Markets and Haywood Securities, and has been involved in transactions valued in excess of $18 billion. ..."

Subjective bumpf is open to over-bullish spin, whereas specific objective facts are different.

Also, have you noticed that for John Zorbas, he is the only one of the seven Zeb Nickel directors for whom the "Read More" option doesn't bring up any more info.:
https://zebnickel.com/board-of-directors/

It looks to me like his only reason for being a Zeb Nickel director is as the representative of its currently largest shareholder (i.e. URU).

There's no reason to think that he will have any active executive role in the company.

Finally, you need to take responsibility for your own investment decisions and losses.

If JZ had really 'scammed people', he could have been sued and/or prosecuted etc.

The reality is, he simply gave his best view of what he hoped for URU, but was derailed by mining bear markets, like countless other mining bosses.

I note from the long term URU chart that it has actually had periods of very good performance, when markets have been favourable:
1. From late 2008 to late 2009, URU 8-bagged.
2. From mid 2016 to early 2017, URU 10-bagged

It comes back to timing being all-important in mining investment.

URU has multibgged before in good market conditions, despite the involvement of JZ, so why shouldn't it do so again?

If people have previously bought and sold at the wrong times, then the best approach is to put it down to experience, learn from it, and attempt to buy and sell at the RIGHT times in future.

"Berenberg Bank set a target price of 270 GBX for the company

Posted by ABMN Staff on Mar 1st, 2022

essensys (LON:ESYS – Get Rating) had its price objective dropped by investment analysts at Berenberg Bank from GBX 345 ($4.63) to GBX 270 ($3.62) in a research note issued to investors on Tuesday, Digital Look reports. The firm presently has a “buy” rating on the stock. Berenberg Bank’s price target suggests a potential upside of 114.40% from the stock’s current price. ..."

https://www.americanbankingnews.com/2022/03/01/essensys-lonesys-price-target-cut-to-gbx-270-by-analysts-at-berenberg-bank.html

So Berenberg has cut its target price for ESYS from 345p to 270p, i.e. a 21.7% reduction.

Whereas in comparison, ESYS has fallen from 245p at the end of February to 82.5p this weekend, a 66.3% fall.

And the upside from 245p to the old target price of 345p was 40.8%.

Whereas the upside from 82.5p to the new target price of 245p is 197%!

And an interesting after hours trade on Friday, by far the biggest of the day:

Recent Share Trades for Essensys (ESYS)
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
04-Mar-22 17:05:54 99.04 88,333 Unknown* 80.00 85.00 87.49k O

If it was dealt on Friday then surely it has to be a buy, probably from an institution bargain-hunting.

After all, institutions were backing ESYS in a placing in July at 285p.

"Firstly “A quality company”, PMS, that’s a classic."

Amtech,

If the Zeb Nickel project was rubbish, there's no way that directors of this quality would be taking such prominent roles in it:

"Wayne Isaacs
CEO & DIRECTOR
Mr. Isaacs has a 30-year career on Bay Street specializing in the resource sector both as a corporate executive of resource companies and as an investment banker. ...
Mr. Isaacs has been involved as principal in 30 listed companies and has served as a director and / or senior officer of over 35 listed companies. He was the President and Director of Forsys Metals Corp. from 2003 to 2007, a TSX listed company with uranium properties in Namibia, Africa which he managed from start up to in excess of $750 million in market capitalization raising over $70 million to advanced its uranium property from the exploration stage to the production decision stage. ..."

"GREG MCKENZIE
Director
Mr. McKenzie (JD, MBA) is a former senior investment banker with more than 20 years of experience in financing, M&A, financial advisory, valuation, and strategic advice to mid-cap companies. Mr. McKenzie has held positions with Morgan Stanley, CIBC World Markets and Haywood Securities, and has been involved in transactions valued in excess of $18 billion. ..."

https://zebnickel.com/board-of-directors/

Note also the potential to add a PGE resource to the existing nickel resource, at a time of soaring PGE prices.

"The project is situated in the world class Platinum Group Element (PGE) and nickel producing region of the Bushveld Complex, located in South Africa. The Bushveld Complex contains over 75% of the world’s platinum reserves, which are usually associated with magmatic nickel deposits. The project is situated in the world-renowned Ni-Cu-PGE producing area of the Northern Limb, which hosts Anglo Platinum’s Mogalakwena mine, the biggest open cast platinum mine in the world, less than 15 km north of the Zeb Nickel project. Another noteworthy neighbor is Ivanhoe’s Platreef Project, situated approximately 5 km north-west of the project. The area is supported by excellent access to infrastructure with road, rail, power, and water, all located nearby or on site."
http://zebnickel.com/zebediela-ni-pge-project/

"A two phase program, totalling US$950,000 (C$1.2M), is recommended with the second phase
(drilling) contingent on the success of the first phase (environmental authorization).
The newly discovered Platreef style mineralization (priority Target 2) in particular, deserves further
exploration to prove the strike and dip extent of the mineralization, and for resource definition
drilling, with the goal to outline maiden PGE resources."
https://zebnickel.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Caracle-Creek_Zebediela-Ni-NI43-101-Feb25_2021F-Complete.pdf

"February 28, 2022 7:06 PM GMT Last Updated 6 days ago
Palladium, gold jump as Russia sanctions unnerve markets
By Brijesh Patel
... "As sanctions increase on Russia and the tensions escalate, it creates a scarcity threat (for platinum metal groups)," said Eric Scoles, market strategist at Blue Line Futures. ..."
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gold-set-best-month-since-may-appeal-surges-ukraine-crisis-2022-02-28/

Amtech,

A 50% spread around a mid price of 135p would have been a spread of 67.5p: 101.25p - 168.75p.
The spread was definitely never anything like that, and you would never have a spread with such odd bid-offer prices anyway.
Perhaps you have misremembered it, or got confused in someway.

Once the buying started on Friday, the price of buys quickly jumped to 166p, but at that point the spread had risen to 130p - 170p, i.e. 26.66% around the mid price of 150p.

04-Mar-22 12:07:31 166.00 3,500 Buy* 130.00 170.00 5,810 O
04-Mar-22 11:49:56 166.00 106 Buy* 130.00 170.00 175.96 O
04-Mar-22 11:17:33 166.00 237 Buy* 130.00 170.00 393.42 O

As regards the size of the project:

"ZEB NICKEL PROJECT
... The Zeb Project Contains a NI43-101 compliant resource over 3.9 million tons of contained sulfide nickel, ranking it number 8 in the global top ten nickel sulfide resources (Mudd, G. M., & Jowitt, S. M. (2014). ..."
http://zebnickel.com/zebediela-ni-pge-project/

3.9 million tons of nickel x current nickel price of US$29,609.00 = an in-situ nickel value of c. US$115 billion.

This is based on multiple drilling programs over the decades:

"The Project area has been the focus of several historical exploration programs for which
information is available, including: Rand Mines (1967 - 1971), Southern Era (1998 - 1999), and
Falconbridge Ventures of Africa (1999 - 2001). All available exploration data from these programs
have been consolidated and are presented and discussed in the Report. Previous exploration
programs consisted of soil geochemistry, airborne and ground geophysical surveys, trenching,
mapping and rock sampling, and several diamond drilling (core) programs."

"A number of drilling programs were completed on the Property between 2007 and 2020."

https://zebnickel.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Caracle-Creek_Zebediela-Ni-NI43-101-Feb25_2021F-Complete.pdf

"40% up ummmmmm the spread was 50% the day before the 40% rise."

Amtech,

The quoted spread was 120 - 150p, i.e. 30p, which is 22.22%, not 50%.

20% or so isn't unusual for a penny share, but looks worse in this case because of the high share price, stemming from a share consolidation a few years ago.

The value of the company doesn't change with a consolidation, there are just far fewer shares in issue, but priced far higher.

It's more psychological: a spread of 1.2p - 1.5p wouldn't look so bad.

But it's still typically possible to deal inside the spread: the first URU buy yesterday was at 147p.

That said, a wider spread is a double-edged sword, and can encourage longer term holding, which can help a rise.

A quality company like URU could be held for years, potentially yielding vast gains as its gigantic nickel project is brought into production, &/or bought out by a major company.

"You guys have obviously taken a punt here and when the sp started falling in the last week or so have realised that things ain't quite what you expected, welcome to uru."

Jono,

You appear to inhabit some sort of bizarre parallel universe, where share price movements are inverted.

I first posted on URU 3 days ago:

Hedgehog100 Posts: 1,639 Price: 135.00 Strong Buy
Buy Opportunity Wed 14:58
" ... Current URU market capitalisation at 1.35p: £2.22M.
With the price of nickel soaring, and Zeb Nickel well-financed and with a huge nickel resource, URU now looks looks like a real buy opportunity."
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.asp?ShareTicker=URU&share=Uru-Metals&page=3

The share price is now up 42% from that level, in a terrible week for shares, so well done to me on a good call.

But certainly not to you, for encouraging/scaring people to sell for as little 120p, when the last sale yesterday was for 50% more than that.

You also stated that no drilling had taken place, when just a few minutes of research would have revealed that it had: obviously research isn't your strong point!

You also suggested that the December Proactive Investors article on URU was faked, and now Komakino is suggesting that RNSes will be faked!!

I don't really need to add anything else about you, because yours are what are known as 'self-discrediting posts': good for a chuckle maybe, but ultimately highlighting your quite monumental idiocy.

With regard to URU; yes, the share price has fallen a long way over the long term, but that can be a sign or tremendous inherent value, with the sums previously invested not reflected in the current value.

If you remain fixated on the rear view mirror, that can blind you to the opportunity going forward.

"Zeb Nickel is advancing South African nickel sulfide deposit as globe goes green
Giles Gwinnett"
12:00 Wed 01 Dec 2021
... So the company and its project seem to have re-emerged just at the right time. With plenty of news flow ahead, an undervalued asset, a skilled management and technical team and the backdrop of a green energy revolution, Zeb Nickel could certainly be an interesting company to follow."
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/967794/zeb-nickel-is-advancing-south-african-nickel-sulfide-deposit-as-globe-goes-green-967794.html

LSE % Gainers
Top Lists
EPIC Name %
URU Uru Metals +41%
EVR Evraz +30%

Nice to see URU finish number one on the top risers board for the weekend, closing up 55p to 190p.

Hopefully this sets the scene for a good week ahead.

"Never lost a penny on uru just to let you know."

I find that rather difficult to believe.

Many mining boards seem to be haunted by posters like you, almost like ghosts, endlessly moaning about past disappointments stretching back years, if not decades, and embittered about perceived management failings.

If you haven't lost money on URU, then why pick it out like this, out of the dozens of other mining stocks you could choose for the same treatment?

A rising nickel price completely transforms the economics of a project like URU, and your lack of understanding of this discredits you.

I could give you examples of mining stocks that have disappointed for many years, but have then gone on to hundred-bag.

Jono,

The mining sector is very cyclical, and when metals rices are depressed, a lower grade, high volume resource may not be profitable. Even the best management will struggle to move such a project forward in that environment.

But the nickel price has trebled in the last six year, which is all the difference in the world.

You've obviously lost money here by buying in many years too early, but you need to look forward now and see the opportunity ahead.

It may help to just view URU as an investment in Zeb Nickel, which in effect it is, at big discount.

URU's John Zorbas is just the seventh of Zeb's listed directors on its website, let alone being the CEO or Chairman, and probably has little active role.

Regardless of what you think of him, you're best off to let it go.

Zeb Nickel's CEO, Wayne Isaacs, has an impressive track record, including taking another TSX listed African mining share from start up to a $750M.+ market cap. -

"Wayne Isaacs
CEO & DIRECTOR

Mr. Isaacs has a 30-year career on Bay Street specializing in the resource sector both as a corporate executive of resource companies and as an investment banker.

This extensive experience has allowed him to successfully seek out and engage and acquire significant resource assets and financing to support exploration, development and mining activities for his operating and investee companies. Mr. Isaacs has been involved as principal in 30 listed companies and has served as a director and / or senior officer of over 35 listed companies. He was the President and Director of Forsys Metals Corp. from 2003 to 2007, a TSX listed company with uranium properties in Namibia, Africa which he managed from start up to in excess of $750 million in market capitalization raising over $70 million to advanced its uranium property from the exploration stage to the production decision stage. Mr. Isaacs is currently a Director of AM Resources Corp. (TSX.V: AMR), a mining company engaged in the exploration of coal, hydrocarbons and gold mining sites located in Colombia. He is a graduate of the University of Western Ontario and has held numerous securities certifications and licenses."

https://zebnickel.com/board-of-directors/

Remember to keep an eye on Zeb Nickel for those drilling results.

https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/ZBNI

URU is up 26% today on no news, and on a bad day for the markets.

It makes you wonder what it could do with a good RNS, and a good day for the markets ...

And the market cap. is still only 3 million quid, for a three quarter shares in one of the world's largest nickel projects (in situ nickel value c. US$100 billion), at time of soaring nickel prices.

URU is currently number two on the top risers board, which should help raise its profile now and this weekend.

LSE % Gainers Top Lists
EPIC Name %
EVR Evraz +59%
URU Uru Metals +26%

I disagree.

Near to production companies in battery metals-minerals, like HZM & BRES, should perform well, as the crisis increases their commodity prices.

Brief dips due to brief stock market dips should be bought into by bargain-hunters.

It's a similar situation to two years ago, when investors were able to pick up some superb bargains that soon rebounded strongly.

And particularly strong rebounders were those shares that were perceived to be potential beneficiaries of the COVID-19 crisis, i.e. certain health companies etc.

Similarly, in the current Ukraine-Russia crisis, certain mining stocks should be perceived as beneficiaries of soaring prices.

I totally agree Luckyorange.

From 245p at the end of February to 92p today, ESYS has fallen 62.45% in 3 days, to a market cap. of just £59.23M. - about half of which is covered by cash.

That seems very severe for what looks like a temporary hiccup due to pandemic uncertainty, with the pandemic now rapidly passing.

The enterprise value of the business is about half the market cap., which looks very cheap for an exciting software business with £22M. of annual revenue, £19.1M. of which is recurring.

Bear markets can throw up opportunities to buy great growth companies at a knock-down price, and this looks like it could well be one.

The company is very well-funded to exploit its major growth opportunity in flexible working, which ironically is being driven by structural changes supported by the pandemic, but look like they are here to stay.

1st Mar 2022 7:00 am RNS Trading Update

" ... Net cash at half year end at GBP30.5m was significantly better than management expectations due to delayed deployment of funds and supports our continued ability to capture the long-term structural drivers in the flexible real estate market.

essensys continues to progress its plan to capture the global market opportunity in flexible workspaces, supported by the successful GBP33m fundraising in July 2021. Since the start of our financial year, we have appointed CEOs for Asia Pacific and UK & Europe, to support our long-term expansion. The APAC business is now fully operational with personnel in place in Singapore, Hong Kong and Australia. Investment in product development is progressing as planned.

Outlook

The Board remains confident in the Group's future growth which is underpinned by long-term structural drivers. Despite a delay in accelerated bookings growth due to the prolonged challenges caused by COVID, the pipeline for FY23 and FY24 is strong. The Group has seen pipeline opportunities continue to grow, particularly amongst large multi-site property organisations. Larger flexible operator customers are starting to expand once again. The Board now expects revenues for FY22 will not be less than GBP23.5m (FY21: GBP22m), with an adjusted EBITDA(1) loss of not more than GBP7m.

Mark Furness, CEO commented:

"essensys has a resilient business model and we are well placed to deliver our long-term expansion plans. Our US business continues to grow strongly. Whilst COVID has undoubtedly had an impact on our recent sales performance, our pipeline for FY23 and FY24 remains strong, supported by positive market dynamics, existing customers returning to growth and exciting opportunities that are already underway. Our new product development activities are starting to deliver further new capabilities and we look forward to sharing more details in due course." ..."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ESYS/trading-update-catykyxet3warxq.html

O.K. Jono, thanks for that, but it was clear cut anyway from the Proactive Investors article.

I'm afraid I just don't get your negativity re. URU, especially considering its huge discount to its Zen Nickel stake.

"ZBNIF
ZEB Nickel Corp.
Ordinary Shares
0.22"

"MARKET CAP Market Cap
12,074,653"

HTTP://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/ZBNIF/overview

US$12.074M. = c. £9.056M.

URU owns 74.82%, = c. £6.77m.

Current URU market capitalisation at 1.35p: £2.22M.

So there's a huge valuation disconnect here: either URU is hugely undervalued, and/or Zen Nickel is hugely overvalued.

But Zeb is only trading near the level of its CND $2M. RTO (reverse takeover) fundraising last summer, which was at CND$0.25.

You would expect any future Zen Nickel fundraising to be at at least that level, and probably more, buoyed by the imminent good drilling results, and the soaring nickel price.

Jono,

Obviously it's not URU itself carrying out the drilling, but its c. 75% owned subsidiary Zeb Nickel.

"Zeb Nickel is advancing South African nickel sulfide deposit as globe goes green

Zeb Nickel, which went public in August, 2021, wants to supply the ballooning EV industry with raw material to make battery cathodes and is sitting on a high-grade nickel sulfide deposit in mining-friendly South Africa

Giles Gwinnett
12:00 Wed 01 Dec 2021

... But in 2017, the project was transferred to URU Metals (now a majority shareholder in Zeb with nearly a 75% stake), which revived the story and carried out extensive exploration. Zeb was born as a result of the desire to publicly list the project and raise capital to advance it. URU sold it to shell company Blue Rhino Capital Corp, which Zeb reversed into. Concurrently, around $3 million was raised to start drilling.

And Zeb has already completed around 2,500 metres (m) of a 3,600m first phase drill program, which kicked off in September 2021, targeting higher grade nickel, included in the footwall and part of a historic resource estimate.

Isaacs said the drilling is progressing very well and the company is already seeing good visible results. The campaign is expected to be completed by the end of the year, after which the company will await lab assays, ahead of a potential second phase of work, where deeper, higher grades will be targeted.

"We believe that we have identified some very viable high-grade zones that we have not even touched yet and I think once we get into some of that drilling in our Phase 2, we're going to start seeing some spectacular results," said Isaacs. ..."

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/967794/zeb-nickel-is-advancing-south-african-nickel-sulfide-deposit-as-globe-goes-green-967794.html