Member Info for hedged

Allthatglitters, I wouldn't count my chickens just yet. I don't see any momentum here at the moment so not sure how far this has to fall atm. I, amongst others, suspect there is a placing due too so I can't see this being the bottom. "I'll thank them again on completion of my first bag". You never know, we could have all double bagged by that point......let's see.

Well considering this has been falling for the past 6 months, what makes you think this is more of a coincidence today rather than any other day during the past 6 months?

Costello, where do you think the bottom is?

You're observation that the sell-off has lessened from the 7p is correct. Although the 7p sell-off was quite sharp, now it seems the sell-off is a steady one with a couple of upward corrections. This has already passed my initial prediction of a 5p bottom. Although the RNS today was welcomed, it wasn't exactly RNS worthy 'news'. What I would like to see more from the management is RNS's are coupled with a better PR strategy detailing more interviews. It seems they haven't really grasped how to coordinate a momentum strategy.

Typo: As the last 'fake news' spike*

I would suggest that you said a very similar thing around 5p about the stabilising of the SP, although I do admit you also stated that it could fall to 4.3p. However, as the lastandard 'fake news' spike hasn't diminished the fall so far, what makes you believe another spike will have the desired effect? I, personally, believe the fall in SP will only stop when the shareholder base has been hit and speculators start to load up to start the momentum which will off-set any remaining seller.

Peter Birds interests are not aligned with that of the shareholders when he holds so few shares. If investors know the CEO has skin in the game then you're more likely to build a strong shareholder base.

I suspect the fall is because no-one is buying apart from a flurry around noon. If there is a placing, this is heading to 4p.

Hi TheTraveller, I previously thought this would bottom around 5p with news due in 3-5 months assuming there's not a 4th delay to BFS. Ive revised my estimate for this to bottom at around 4p as there is little buying at the moment. I'm still positive on the long-term in terms of assets and the chairman.

Okay, so they've generally placed above the previous placing price. Either way, although I'm sure that next placing will be for good reasons I'm not sure how it'll be received.

Generally any placing has been for good reasons (Buying Beutong licence, delivering BFS etc) to enhance the investment. However, previously, we've always placed above the previous placing price so I'm not sure how it will be received on this occasion.

I merely replied to Costello as to why I thought it was the case. Of course if ARS has decreased spending vs last year then my analysis will be off. But no-one actually knows until the EoY results come out.

ARS spent $8.2mm on costs last year and had a cash position of $4mm in June this year. Assuming they spend the same this year vs last year they will need a cash injection by the end of the year.

I just think the lack of buyers means any sells will cause a fall in the SP. Are people waiting to buy in after a placing? or do any of the LTH not have any additional capital to maintain the current SP.

DogTyred, I agree that a few sells looked like buys. And the amount of small trades seemed pretty unusual. Not sure why they popped up today. I think the market is pretty dead at the moment and without any action from the management then no-one is going bother buying here when there are opportunities elsewhere.

Extension to deposits

Another 180k buy. Third day running someone loading up.

I hope for the shareholders sake the SP doesn't decline any further, especially for those already underwater. I hope the management have a plan to build momentum over the next 4 months so they can take advantage when they release the BFS.

And 3 are from today. Someone is loading up. Let's see if they load tomorrow too.

They're from Friday, no?