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This may mean oil is a little better bid over the coming days. Worth keeping an eye on to see how Hermine develops. Many of the forecast tracks are through the Gulf oil patch and I assume that precautionary measures will need to be taken soon which could affect production. https://www.artemis.bm/news/forecast-models-indicate-first-gulf-hurricane-of-2022-with-us-landfall-risk/

I have, along with other LTHs on this board, suffered mental anguish from the seemingly inexplicable under valuation of ENQ.
It really pains me to say this, but this will continue until we are well past the 0.5 x debt to EBITDA target. Only once we are past that and any accumulated surplus FCF can be distributed or used for buybacks can we hope for any significant re-rate. Hopefully we can look forward to this promised land in the next 12 months but the market will not anticipate it until we are there. In the meantime we will still be subject to the whims of traders and the broader market.

In some ways it is not crazy valuation, it is no basis at all for valuation - otherwise how do BARC and JPM come up with such differing SP targets. It would seem that you can just make things up to suit an agenda and get away with it.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-says-opec-has-options-confront-market-challenges-including-cutting-output-2022-08-22/
Not sure if this will add to or reduce your confusion. ABS seems to be calling out the US for manipulation of the paper market in to the 90s despite tight supply. The US has, of course, every incentive to do that in the run up to the mid-terms

Share buy backs are on the Agenda for the AGM to-morrow. They can have mine for a £1 !

We are already far advanced in the transition away from the use of coal and gas for the generation of electricity. The Swedes are not the only trailblazers in this regard. On a good day we have only 30% -50% of our electricity from fossil fuels.
And yet despite this we will all experience a doubling of our electricity bills over the next 18 months. It does not look like much of a win to me - just another bait and switch from the eco-facist lobby.

My time horizon for ENQ had been defined by the extent to which our excellent resident Nordic number cruncher has produced his forecasts - currently to the end of 2023. The monumental pin-head masquerading as Chancellor of the Exchequer has given us a new time frame with the sunset of this egregious new levy - to the end of 2025.
By the end of the levy era ENQ will possibly have generated somewhere between £1.5 - £1.8 bn FCF NET of the levy. In other words about 3x the current market cap. Notwithstanding the hated Sunak and his vicious levy the cash will keep rolling in far in excess of the current value of the company, as judged by the SP.

https://www.pionline.com/esg/blackrock-wont-back-climate-shareholder-proposals-it-considers-too-prescriptive

Perhaps ESG was, after all, a cynical ploy to talk down the value of energy stocks, with the eco-facists along for the ride as useful idiots. This enabled the likes of Blackrock to hoover them at bargain prices. We now have the next part of the plan - seeing them being talked up. Maybe after a bumpy ride they have done us all a favour

Something to ponder over the weekend.
Just recently we seem to be outpacing a basket of oil shares. This co-incidental with the disclosure of our strong FCF and ability to pay down debt
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ENQ:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwizuLfV38z3AhXBS0EAHbyUBgIQ3ecFegQIKxAi&comparison=LON%3ASPOG&window=YTD
However, if you wind the time horizon back a few years it is clear we have a lot of catching up to do. The recent out-performance can continue - assuming the cash continues to flow and the balance sheet repairs are effected
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ENQ:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwizuLfV38z3AhXBS0EAHbyUBgIQ3ecFegQIKxAi&comparison=LON%3ASPOG&window=MAX

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ENQ2/enquest-plc/company-page Was hoping for a bit of a premium

I started out this morning with similar thoughts in my head. However as I am both an equity and bondholder I have decided not to look a gift horse in the mouth. Maybe this is the start of a trend in giving enhanced returns to stakeholders - all that FCF has got to go somewhere.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hbZ0kCYhA8lCWFphubJcnhW0kg9hHJlwWQgSDv0uUUA/edit?usp=sharing

Tanker tracking data

Is there a date for the Ops update or is it TBA ? I see that it was 24th Nov last year.

Thanks Pelle, Sorry about my early morning rant - agree that debt needs to be considered but we could see significant debt reduction (we are mandated to reduce the RBL) in the next 12/18 months - guess that is why the RB is offered at par. Crazy valuation as you say.
ATB

So the estimated FCF of $750 m exceeds the Market Cap of $660 m. How is that even possible, even in a time of raging Eco fascism and rampant ESG ? It also suggests that other non-producing assets, tax credits and EP are worthless. Somedays investing does my head in.

We are now in serious BTFD territory for ENQ in particular and energy in general. The recent price spikes in Nat Gas are probably a sign of things to come for Oil - at least I hope so.

Very nicely summarized BlueRun - it was what I was trying to say in the original post. As you say the fundamentals will out and some of the FCF has got to find its way into the share price or paid out in some way.

Meanwhile in a quite corner of the LSE Retail bond market ENQ1 is currently offered at a nice round 100p. Might just get out this capitalis intactum along with the numerous coupons and PIKs.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ENQ1/enquest-plc/company-page

I am sure that there are more complicated answers to why the SP is not higher but the root cause is uncertainty. The imponderable outcomes are plentiful;pace of debt reduction, production, GE, EP, OPEC overhang, pace of demand recovery, response of Shale Patch to higher prices etc etc. ENQ has become a 'show me' stock - a promising future is no longer enough to move the price - we have failed to deliver too many times on past promises.

I remain convinced that the FCF potential is there to provide a good return on my holding of both ENQ and ENQ1, but we are still going to have to be patient and hope that we don't stumble again.

Perhaps only symbolic, as the bond has been bid at 95p plus for about 4 months, but to see the offer so close to par is maybe worth 6 magpies.
Too often we have seen the RB bid in the 30s and this shows how far ENQ has come in the last 12 months. Energy credit is certainly well bid at the moment and there is every possibility of ENQ1 trading above par - an unexpected and in some ways quite bizarre outcome following the pandemic.
Steady progress on the RB has, on many an occasion, helped me to 'hang tough' on the shares
While we wait for the Golden Eagle, I guess we have to make do with gold tinged Magpies

https://www.energydashboard.co.uk/live found this useful of late with the panic over Gas supplies and prices . Surprised me how much - currently Wind 14% Solar 10% Hydro 2%- of our electricity is generated by renewables even when there is little of either. It is dull and windless in SE England right now but we are still getting 26% green energy (48% if you commit the heresy of including Biomass and Nuclear).

Getting interested in Green energy is clearly a sign of collective boredom while waiting for news on GE.

Thanks for the link Pelle

STOCKHOLM (Nyhetsbyrån Direkt) Jefferies International raises its recommendation for Enquest to buy from hold. The target price is raised to 0:30 from 0:24 pounds.