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SofH opened 15 mins ago seeing a nice rise from here today

Sadlass cabbage burnt pathetic lonely trolly 🤡

The CFO of Capita has therefore publicly sketched a path to £75-80m free cash flow without requiring revenue growth, without requiring margin expansion beyond current trajectory, and without requiring the Contact Centre to do anything heroic. The only assumptions are that mobilisation costs normalise, the CC generates modest cash rather than burning it, and a long-running accounting drag finishes unwinding.

At the current market cap of approximately £360m, £75-80m of free cash flow implies a free cash flow yield of approximately 21%. That is the number the market is not pricing.

Hernandez's qualification about Serco is technically accurate — Serco has US defence revenue at structurally higher margins and has been through its transformation cycle already. But his qualification does not dispute the destination. He disputes the comparison, not the trajectory. Pablo had already confirmed the trajectory was within reach before Hernandez spoke. The sequencing matters.

The Contact Centre disposal announced on 26 March 2026 changes the arithmetic further. The CC was contributing negative cash flow — approximately £20m outflow on under-utilised properties and £8m from Germany embedded in the 2025 figures. Removing it removes the drag. The free cash flow bridge Pablo described becomes easier to achieve with the CC gone, not harder, because the structural losses and property costs leave with it.

The market is pricing Capita at 2.7x EBITDA. The CFO has just publicly walked through a scenario where normalised free cash flow reaches £75-80m. The re-rating is not a hope. It is an arithmetic consequence of the passage of time.

From that poor rag CSW, shows capita understand the value of goodwill though, cleaning up the striking pcs scummers and mycsp mess

Capita offers to pay for continued use of surge staff. Around 140 staff from HMRC's Surge and Rapid Response Team are currently supporting Capita with the Civil Service Pension Scheme recovery

16 Apr 2026

Capita has offered to pay for the continued work of surge staff brought in to tackle the Civil Service Pension Scheme crisis.

Since February, HMRC has deployed more than a hundred staff from its Surge and Rapid Response Team to help Capita get to grips with backlogs and missed payments.

In a letter to the Public Accounts Committee, sent on Monday and published on Wednesday, Capita Public Services chief exec Richard Holroyd said he “recognises that the Cabinet Office has funded the HMRC surge staff as set out by the Heads of Terms in December 2025” and is “incredibly grateful for their professionalism during their tenure with Capita”.

“As the surge staff has continued beyond April, when we moved past the work to index the inherited 15,000 emails and the initial spike in activity due to inherited backlogs, and will continue for some time ahead, Capita recognises that there should be a limit to the cost to the taxpayer,” he added.

Holroyd said that in light of this, Capita wrote to the Cabinet Office on 10 April “to offer to cover costs until those surge colleagues can return to civil service duties”.

At the PACAC session on 3 March, Little said: "My expectation is that the taxpayer should not have to suffer or pay for what we have had to do to get the service level of this contract back to where it needs to be. That will have to be subject to the usual commercial arrangements in place."

CSW understands that commercial discussions between the Cabinet Office and Capita are ongoing over responsibility for the costs of the surge staff.

Tbh not realised the 'You belong here' campaign was capitas I'd say best recruitment advert for decades for army no wonder won awards

Missed this bit earlier on

The AI deployment arguably deepens the dependency further by making Capita the active intelligence layer on top of the infrastructure.

3. DCC — planned government transition

The Data Communications Company is the smart meter network operator. Pablo's framing here was deliberate — he used the word "eventually" and "transition back into government." This is a managed wind-down rather than a competitive renewal risk. DCC operates under a licence granted by Ofgem and has always been structured as a time-limited private operation that would ultimately transition to public ownership. The OFGEM inquiry announced before the H1 2025 results created short-term sentiment damage but Pablo confirmed it relates to historical purchasing procedures within DCC's independent governance structure, not to Capita's core operations. The financial impact of DCC transitioning out is known and manageable rather than being a sudden loss.

Contextual Analysis

The broader framing Pablo gave before naming the specific contracts is the most important part of the answer. He explicitly pushed back against binary renewal thinking. His point was that the top 10 contracts are not simply at risk of renewing or not renewing — they are continuously evolving relationships where extensions, scope expansions and AI deployments are injected throughout the contract life. The slides confirmed this pattern empirically: in 2025, contract additions included extensions with the BBC, Education Authority Northern Ireland, Primary Care Support England, Royal Navy Training and Royal Mail Statutory Pension Scheme. None of those were described as at-risk renewals six months earlier.

The win rate doubling to 64% and the pipeline growing to £19.8bn also changes the renewal risk calculus. Even if one large contract is lost, Capita now has the pipeline density and conversion capability to replace it — something that was not true two or three years ago when the contract loss story dominated every results presentation.

The clearest read of the renewal risk landscape is that Army recruitment at end 2026 is a genuine watch point worth monitoring, TfL is deeply embedded and unlikely to move, and DCC is a known managed transition. None of these individually threatens the investment thesis, but the Army contract in particular warrants attention as the year progresses and any pre-renewal signals emerge

Sadlassakabigpunt

How desperate are you £9 would be an mcap of less than a billion, revenue is +2bn and margins at approx 8% public sector, 15% pensions do the maths or shall I just re post yesterday's maths lesson

Claude Max: information taken from the FY25 Results Presentation Transcript:

The Exchange

Joe Spooner (Shore Capital Markets): Slide 29, you pulled out the key customers per division there. How stable is that mix? Is there any of those key contracts that are up for renewal over maybe the next year or so?

Pablo Andres: Yes. So in terms of contracts, I think that, yes, the top 10 contracts are 70% of the relationships, but the level of extensions, and the level of innovative work into each of these contracts is very significant. So I wouldn't look only at the angle of binary in or out, but also - and then they do get replaced.

So yes, within those top contracts, we do know that we had the recruitment contract that is a large one that is meant to be expiring at the end of 2026. That is probably the biggest one. Then we've got other renewals, extensions, other possible contracts, probably TfL is another big one that we've got there. Those are probably the biggest ones I can think of. DCC is one that eventually will transition into - back into the government, to public. So those are the biggest ones.

The Three Named Risks

1. Army Recruitment Contract — end 2026

Pablo explicitly called this the biggest known renewal risk. This is the contract under which Capita manages Army recruitment on behalf of the Ministry of Defence. It is a significant Public Service contract — the slides noted that the You Belong Here campaign won the Digital Marketing Grand Prix Award and reversed a five-year decline in Army applications. The AI-enabled recruitment automation built on Salesforce Agentforce was specifically highlighted as a showcase deployment, with 19,000+ candidates already through the system. The timing is uncomfortable because end 2026 is close enough to create near-term uncertainty but far enough away that there is no resolution before the next set of results.

The mitigating factors are substantial. The contract has been performing strongly by every measurable metric. The AI recruitment tool was given a keynote slot at a major Salesforce event in June 2025. The Ministry of Defence is embedded in the relationship. And the broader pattern Pablo described — extensions, scope changes, innovative work injected into existing contracts — suggests the binary renewal framing understates the stickiness. Capita's own data shows seven of its top ten customers have been customers for over a decade. Nonetheless this is a real watch point.

2. Transport for London — ongoing

TfL is one of Capita's flagship Public Service relationships covering the Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall Tunnel tolling scheme, which went live in 2025. The slides specifically highlighted agentic AI deployment on the TfL contract and the 90% reduction in cost to service on the discount verification system. Pablo named TfL as the second largest renewal concern without giving a specific date. The relationship is deeply embedded — Capita built and operates the tolling infra

Just in case anyone missed it earlier re posted for last time well worth a watch 👊

Nice rise today, clearly sent out a couple of the aliases as shorters 💩💩 themselves.

Need to buy that stock back ladies 😬😬😬😬

Richard Staveley, Rockwood Strategic

Starts at 2-minute mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCvgV83Wz6E

Text from segment on CPI:

"We've actually just in the last few weeks had a major catalyst at Capita. Now, it couldn't have happened at probably a worse time. They actually — after the invasion, in the first few days after the invasion — they released their results when it was in massive risk off and everyone was looking for any reason to sell anything they had. And they had results where they actually achieved their expectations for the year, but did caution on the outlook for one of the activities — the contact centre division within Capita — and they were punished really quite severely.

In early — 16 days later, in late March — they announced the full sale and exit of those activities, creating an upgrade. Now the stock obviously bounced on the day of the negative, but it's still materially down from where they were before, which in our view is completely ridiculous.

And it leaves Capita with only two activities left in the business. The public sector division, which the results are showing is performing very very well — it's making over 8% margins now, high cash conversion, very sticky contracts with the government, a well-respected and good partner for the government in very strong incumbency positions on a number of key contracts, growing its top line with a very significant order book.

The other business is a pensions advisory and management and administration business, very similar to a midcap company called XPS Pensions, which — like XPS actually — is much more profitable than the other division, making low-teens kind of operating margins, and we think is worth a lot too.

Balance sheet now is in much much better shape than it was years ago at Capita. They don't have any pension fund obligations. And we think those two remaining businesses, netting off the liabilities, mean the market cap should be north of a billion pounds — which means there is a huge amount of upside from the current market cap."

Richard Staveley, Rockwood Strategic

Starts at 2-minute mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCvgV83Wz6E

Text from segment on CPI:

"We've actually just in the last few weeks had a major catalyst at Capita. Now, it couldn't have happened at probably a worse time. They actually — after the invasion, in the first few days after the invasion — they released their results when it was in massive risk off and everyone was looking for any reason to sell anything they had. And they had results where they actually achieved their expectations for the year, but did caution on the outlook for one of the activities — the contact centre division within Capita — and they were punished really quite severely.

In early — 16 days later, in late March — they announced the full sale and exit of those activities, creating an upgrade. Now the stock obviously bounced on the day of the negative, but it's still materially down from where they were before, which in our view is completely ridiculous.

And it leaves Capita with only two activities left in the business. The public sector division, which the results are showing is performing very very well — it's making over 8% margins now, high cash conversion, very sticky contracts with the government, a well-respected and good partner for the government in very strong incumbency positions on a number of key contracts, growing its top line with a very significant order book.

The other business is a pensions advisory and management and administration business, very similar to a midcap company called XPS Pensions, which — like XPS actually — is much more profitable than the other division, making low-teens kind of operating margins, and we think is worth a lot too.

Balance sheet now is in much much better shape than it was years ago at Capita. They don't have any pension fund obligations. And we think those two remaining businesses, netting off the liabilities, mean the market cap should be north of a billion pounds — which means there is a huge amount of upside from the current market cap."

Sadlass yesterday reported a 600% gain 4 hours after on epic Bird after happened no mention of it before then sold out with the 2% of other folk who hit the bottom then the top -yeah sure sure sure you 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠

@YTeeBack agreed breakout at the ready ........

But we will see that's the thing shorts gonna have to be closed and they've been trying really hard to get a run (down) going but so far held up.........

Anyway good news folks sorted my access to British GP begining of July so hoping for good weather and Lewis the goat to be get us a win in his Ferrari rocket.

@MarcusExile hopefully just a short term blip and you'll be back posting soon? Have to agree with @Trisor a joke considering the nonsense a certain moronic posts daily

@max in all fairness it's that not folk are weak of mind BUT in most cases I'd imagine that folk won't accept the lies they spew.........

@Trisor think sadlass is running out of track mate..

Aim you are Running out of Road . War only thing left

ROOR

donald trump says us-iran talks could restart in ****stan "in the next two days .........

now let's all be grown up about this trumpy

Goodness me sheet streak sad-lass your employers must be really worried you're in double figures since yesterday evening

Cheap lass 20p a shot

2:25, 2:25, 2:25 like the train moving away....

Oil down 5% on back of expected talks between USofA and I-ran .........

Looks like the shorts are going to be scrambling to see who can get out first when the squeeze comes 🤣😂🤣😂🤣🤣

Sad-lass2018 no one actually cares imho 🥱🥱🥱

(about you😂🤣🤡 good to see the fake alias you sadly created on the weekend 🤦🤦🤦🤷🤷🤷 has been boxed so sad)