Member Info for HawaiifiveO

Something seems to be brewing, online limits have improved dramatically over the last hour, they want a premium for just £4k of shares currently.

There is significant value here, folks need to look towards the future and not dwell on the past, the company is a much changed and leaner entity. The CFO seems to be on the case, that £4m cash inbound from the sale of CD4 cannot be far away.

With 237m shares in issue ODX is only valued at £7.6m currently - cash north of £2m and £4m due, possibly imminently.

I found this tweet a while back and saved the link - it shows data from 2006 to current, if you had invested £1000 in 2006 it would now be worth £14

https://twitter.com/Oilplayer2009/status/1514899655561261058?s=20&t=nW5n59P-22NxdbT18XJ5CA

30 billion shares issued - the market cap of Red Rock has only exceeded £10m three times in 18 years - £25m raised via placings in that time (excludes CLN's, loans, death spiral funding etc) Andrew Bell must have taken out £2.5m in salary over the period.

It is more than damning, but don't worry the major shareholders have total faith in Mr Bell !

You know it’s serious when the US military quietly solicits applications for Canadian #mining projects.
Part of an increasingly urgent priority of the U.S. government: lessening dependence on #China for #criticalminerals

https://twitter.com/giginator_/status/1592260663329845250?s=20&t=0LJ_ShPFo80PAmgjmc8Evw

The investor meetings they talk about on 29th to 1st December align with the Mines & Money event in Islington, it is not clear whether they are actually attending the event itself (it is quite expensive) Also attending are junior Chesser Resources (based close to ORR in Senegal) and Barrack who are acquiring licences around ORR in country.

One wonders if they are simply there for prestigious/status reasons or are actually about to conclude some deal that Livesey hinted at in a recent interview, who knows.

The Mines & Money event is not really retail investor focussed, to be frank is rather starchy, it is very industry biased and there is a laborious process to gain entry, one suspects they will not get many 1 to 1 meetings with shareholders in Islington IMO.

There are other options to meet them online however, they have to be commended for reaching out to investors nonetheless.

I still feel they would like to dispose of their stake in Senegal, let's face it their focus is now in Cameroon, within 18 months they will be in a minority position with mid-tier Iamgold - will then have to fund their share, a sale of this stake would make perfect sense, they could retain a NSR in any deal.

Plenty of news ahead from ORR.

You just get a feeling something is going on in the background at Condor especially with the hastily cancelled podcast with Crux.

Gold stocks starting to rally from 18 month lows adds flavour to possible events ahead.

Nice to wake up one morning with a serious cash offer for the entire issued capital of Condor, it's possible.

Volume since the placing is approaching 600m shares, one suspects 20% was forward sold, the overhang looks to be clearing quickly therefore.

It is not unusual for ORR to release quite a bit of news post a placing, they have telegraphed a news rich period ahead.

Could be an interesting week ahead.

Viera

Having completed some research I have to apologise suggesting you were shorting, it is quite clear you are a HNW individual with a number of declarable positions in other stocks. I also noticed you bought 10m shares post the placing.

Many of us have been around ORR a long time, when a new poster appears on here (or elsewhere) and starts posting negatively one has to be suspicious of the motive - let's face it naked shorting occurs on AIM, there could still be positions open.

The above said one has to look at the reality of where the company is placed right now, my view is they will not require funding for a very long time, they will get another £400k in the kitty via a tax refund in Q1, they had £250k in the bank post placing, they have just raised £600k (before expenses) so the cash position is strong.

I am convinced they will sell the Muratdere royalty by H1 next year, possible sooner, based on research I expect this to fetch a minimum of £1.5m given the very significant improved financials of that project, it may even be more.

The company is valued at a mere £3.5m compared to a high of £35m in Q1 2021, for comparison their nearest peer in Senegal (Chesser Resources) is down 75% so ORR is not alone by way of SP fall. I fully believe you will never get a better time to buy in, as a result I have taken a nice slice of stock post the placing adding to my (smaller) position, historically my timings have been pretty good.

I see from Twitter a number of well-heeled individuals are also taking positions, with modest volumes moving forward this could easily get back to the .25p/.27p range, might be some resistance from there given the 188m .25p warrant wall but that could quickly clear as well, it is under 8% of the issued capital, even so a near 100% gain from current levels.

They are entering a news rich period also !

I have re-evaluated the Muratdere NSR royalty situation, the ORR website suggests the project could deliver revenues of $400m over 16 years of mine life.

There are c.68,000 tonnes copper, c.32,000 ounces gold and c.955,000 ounces silver in situ, ORR retains a 1.2% NSR.

Interestingly the revenue number was based on commodity prices in 2019 - clearly there has been a major shift in value from $400m since.

So it is not inconceivable to suggest the royalty could easily be sold once the EIA is in place, Stratex sold a NSR which was capped at $20m on a project that has a NPV of $242m over 8 years for $4.5m.

https://www.stratexinternational.com/news/386/

Maybe we are under-estimating the value of this royalty position therefore, it may well be worth the higher end of the valuation scale, certainly north of £1.5m for sure.

The EIA is imminent and that is the value add, adds weight to the simple fact that ORR is materially undervalued.

The post by 'viera' is in the same league as the ramping brigade that appeared on here pre the placing, 1st post on this BB this year and wanted to buy the placing but did not want to buy the shares under it a few days ago - make of that what you will !

One suspects certain entities may be naked short, they can only close those shorts via a placing or via market purchases, it seems the move by Oriole to a new broker may have upset a number of market operators who now need to close their positions.

This could get very interesting over the next few days, one suspects the price action could be stronger as a result.

It was interesting to note that Livesey said they were looking towards securing another R&D tax credit (last year £400k) and the have 'one or two other things up our sleeve' to secure more funding, given the historic failure to deliver a meaningful asset sale one suspects he would not have said this unless they are actually confident on closing a deal in the near term.

One suspects the deal they have in mind is the sale of the Muratdere royalty, I seem to recall the CFO suggesting this project could deliver revenues of $400m over a 7 year term, that makes ORR's 1.2% NSR potentially worth £2m/£3m as a saleable asset to a royalty company - even if they received £1.5m it would see them through 12 months at least, the value kicker on the sale will be receipt of a EIA in Turkey, ORR must believe this is imminent.

Once the EIA is forthcoming they probably have the sale lined up, ORR's CFO has stated they have talked to royalty companies historically.

My view is the last placing will the final one, potentially until this time next year, this means it is a very dangerous situation to naked short the stock, it's probably the best time to average down or buy in right now IMO.

DYOR etc.

Looks like the overhang has cleared, IG want a premium for anything over 25,000 shares right now, some online platforms are 'at best' on just 10,000 shares.

Adds weight to the 'something going on behind the scenes' theories.

I suppose what investors have to look at is whether Red Rock will provide a better uplift than other sector minnows in the future, the share price range is circa .35p to 1.2p.

It seems the monies in the Congo are going to be exceptionally difficult to extract, if Bell had made material progress he would have RNS'ed this, one has to assume he has come back empty handed.

My personal view, be it right or wrong, is there are far better options in the junior space that could offer 3x or more uplift in a sector recovery scenario. There are some incredibly bombed out juniors currently, many of which have offered outstanding historic gains and not stained by 'toxic' management + have a strong retail following.

Winnifrith makes a great point, Bell has been proposing asset sales, JV's, IPO's + other corporate activity but he has simply not delivered over many years, one thing for sure AB sure as heck knows how to fluff the excuses.

Nonetheless, at least one event is out of the hands of RRR, namely the IPO of Elephant Oil, that should generate some upside in due course.

Bell confirmed on Twitter last evening he had returned from the Congo

https://twitter.com/ABell2019/status/1589648990743953409?s=20&t=EOAaFgcPk_TLCxQWKFmyxw

The link to the Sh@reprophets feature

https://tinyurl.com/yc4yv5wr

Sharepr@phets has written a piece late today suggesting they are not tipping Red Rock anymore and are heavily critical of Andrew Bell for failing to deliver just one asset sale, they point to more fund raisings ahead due to his inability to monetize assets.

Bell has responded in defence on the same paywall site, of course he should not promote ANY Red Rock commentary unless it is re-laid to ALL shareholders but who cares about regulations, it is not the 1st time it has happened either. Winnifrith pokes fun at the Nomad who he loves to announce as Roland 'fatty' Cornish and implies as quite useless, so Bell knows there will be no censure.

The gist of the matter is Bell has now returned from the Congo, clearly with no cash, if there had been meaningful progress then surely he would have to RNS it, of course Bells view of progress is completely different to the vast majority of shareholders.

So there we have it, the latest instalment of the Red Rock muppet show !

For what it is worth I do not see the reason for the cancelled interview being a placing, they had net £3m cash at end June and the CEO said they are now in a low cash burn environment currently. Another aspect, if they were preparing to raise cash they would not have agreed to do the Crux interview in the first instance.

To me the short notice cancelled interview (not giving a reason to Crux) means there is something else afoot, maybe out of the blue, speculation continues, with major shareholder Jim Mellon at the table you can be assured shareholders interests will be more than looked after.

Surprised there has not been more buying around current levels, the price looks very attractive to say the least.

The Crux interview has been temporarily aborted by Condor, Crux were not given a reason, they hope to re-schedule at some point in the future.

It strikes me that something is going on in the background, as I mentioned in an earlier post my understanding is that companies are not allowed to promote ahead of a material news event or price sensitive information, it is deemed as bad practice.

Crux tweeted their schedule list on Sunday of last week and Condor tweeted back immediately suggesting they were looking forward to the interview, something must have happened over the next few days for Condor to cancel it.

Make of this what you will - I believe something is brewing nonetheless, Jim Mellons appointment to Exec Chairman could be a clue.

dactions

I would not be surprised to see a new institutional investor appear on the register taking Miles Pelhams shares, something like this happened over at Obtala, do you really think all of this stock, in excess of 100m would have gone to retail investors - I think not, especially in current market conditions.

My bet is there is some form of orderly share swap going on, it may be close to concluding, I have taken the view this is too good to miss and have bought in heavily, I fully expect the share price to return back to the pretty well-established range of 4.5p - 5.5p in due course.

DYOR etc

CEO met King Charles at Buckingham Palace over the weekend, earlier last week the President of Gabon visited the company in country, they are now at COP in Egypt, status indeed !

https://twitter.com/WoodboisLtd/status/1588876038871912451?s=20&t=IEGRnu3XLPmRcT14i8vZ1w

https://twitter.com/WoodboisLtd/status/1588481942378496000?s=20&t=IEGRnu3XLPmRcT14i8vZ1w

https://twitter.com/WoodboisLtd/status/1589584528682938368?s=20&t=IEGRnu3XLPmRcT14i8vZ1w

Continued silence from Bell concerning Red Rock, he continues to tweet away his eccentric and contrarian views on a personal level, where is he?

The last Stockbox interview was on the 7th October when he said he was going to the Congo for a few days to get some signatures, we know he stayed longer but where is he now? Surely an update cannot be far off.

No doubt a few 'investors' close to the company are aware where he is - even they are quiet, nonetheless I noticed selective buys keep appearing below .40p - as mentioned buys around current levels have proved profitable historically.

Kutzz

I wondered if you have had any communication with the BOD, you seem more comfortable with events over the last few days.

I do wonder if a window of opportunity for ORR has opened with Iamgold selling their Rosebel mine for £360m, there has been speculation they could look sell their Senegal Boto project also, if so Iamgold may want 100% ownership of Orioles Senala licence to boost their sale proceeds, the historic spend for Stratex/Oriole in Senegal is circa £7m, most of this has been written off.

The other aspect is Oriole management may be able to approach Iamgold to offer them the remaining 30% of the Senala licence, in Q1 next year the JV will only have 12 months to run, IG will then own 70% - surely it would make sense for ORR to sell their remaining stake and retain a NSR interest, one would expect a sale could deliver a decent sum, possibly in excess of $10m.

ORR management MUST stop these dilutive placings and start delivering on corporate activity i.e. sell assets and/or JV Cameroon.

Late Friday the share price started to strengthen, one would suggest the floor is in, traders could move this up in timely fashion.