Member Info for HaveTelfer

Exactly the phrase I said to my Mrs this morning

Don’t you mean 37,000 Yaun ?

Agreed bamps divis 2028 earliest

I’m with both ggpthruandtru and TT, sorry Speedy.

a) I’ve modelled many scenarios and can see 700-800k a year being produced from 2028 and then the existing 20mtpa mill will be at capability. If this is indeed elephant country more capacity will be required in the area.

b) I can concur with your view on the gold price coming in the future, so even more upwards pressure on EBITDA - oh there’s no debt, so we’ll call it profit :)

If both these 2 happen then even with an active M&A approach the excess FCF will still permit the I’m a dividend kind of guy to keep the Aussie pension funds happy with annual yield at circa 3.5% as standard on ASX at present.

It’s a nice problem to have for both Mr Day and the SP.

Onwards and upwards

No problems, just put an order in on the closing UT 😎

Sorry autocorrect is a pain

If GGP have nothing to spend the excess profit on, start estimating the SP based upon a 3.5% yield. Forget the peer group analysis.

Start looking at P/E with different glasses.

IF …. Mr I’m a dividend kind of guys starts paying out in 2028.

ASX yields average 3.5%.

If GGP have nothing to didn’t the excess profit on start estimating the SP based upon the 3.5% yield. Forget the peer group analysis

I’ve got similar expectations re profit in 2028.

Interesting part in then the dividends which drive Aussie pension funds. Assuming will be circa 70% of profit paid out.

Typical ASX yields are currently circa 3.5%.

So flex these assumptions and the SP will be 🥂🚀🚀

Hi DM and Bamps

I’m receptive to your reply’s thank you.

My biggest “concern” is Telfer stock will be so big they run out of capacity for Havieron, Blackhills, Scally, etc etc. I’m not pushing back on the additional facility being at Telfer. It’s a nice problem to have.

As has been said many times this BOD ain’t here for a small 300k-400k producer. Their aspirations are probably a lot higher in my opinion.

Oops 700-800k oz a year

With Telfer @ 150mt already and perhaps 300mt once the other 4 areas are published in H2. That’s 15 years prior to finding or buying more production areas.

So why not a new plant at Havieron. Perhaps this is where the SCP note on 9mtpa makes perfect sense.

Could be 700m or 800m oz a year by 2028/9.

I wonder what the market would think of that come Christmas 25 when all the cards are in the table.

I’m not sure the timeline has been pushed back yet. There was a 6 months to build up a stockpile once mining was complete 2027 plus also a slow start all be it in the high grade areas. The footnote says steady state 2028, so small production H2 2027.

The interesting part of the DFS will be production constraints. At present it’s 2.8mtpa. I’m hoping there’s a revised “efficient” upgrade to that which the market will love as the grades are so much stronger than Telfer. They get one chance to set this upright first time and we haven’t seen a misstep by the team since SD came onboard.

The proof of the pudding will come with the DFS.

Hopefully this will be “flight of swallows” creating a true summer.

Unless the MM’s need to collect a few hundred million by 4.30pm Friday 🤞

I think the £150m is a fair estimate for FY25, but I believe that’s only got 7 months less 4 days of mill production, hence income in it.

£300m-£350m could be a fair estimate for a full 12 months, but that requires the update Telfer resource estimate due in the remaining days of March.

We’re getting to the stage where Telfer as well as Havieron will outlive most of us 😱

Oppsss Newmont

Ben

Wyloo have a call option for 50% of. Newcrest shares @ 7.2p.

Just a matter of when they exercise the option

Best

Yes call is at 7.2p a share. No way Wyloo lets the profit go.

But Wyloo have first dibs on 50% @ cheap rates from the placing

Deramper 😎