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Fair points I was thinking one could buy out the other in order to take over the company or Waha could take it private? How do you explain the repeated automated sells every morning and any rise is squashed by big block sells yet no TR1's emerge?
Yes at Morocco it would. The decline might have slowed due to the maintenance work at Gemsa. We do have other oil at South Ramadan, small working % I know, to come online to offset Gemsa as well. There is also more oil exploration at Rabul and Meseda in 2020 to expand oil production, with NW Gemsa becoming uneconomic in 2020.
One question I did want to ask is if demand wasn't an issue at Morocco how much gas could we flow at the moment per day?
No problem sorry I couldn’t ask more questions around operations. The key for more revenue in the future seems to be increasing Morocco demand via companies at the Atlantic Freezone and Peugeot and finding more gas for SD in the upcoming Egypt drilling campaign.
I think it’s obvious a big player is offloading maybe they sit below the 3% so they don’t have to notify but every time we go up there are 50k sell trades and 100k. There is also a 50k buyer but as soon as they stop the SP retraces. I think this is most likely being kept down for a cheap takeover hence the automated sells early in the morning and late in the evening. But could be someone offloading which takes a while due to the low volumes.
The reporting of trades is just where they land between the bid and ask, the actual buy and sell price is normally very different to the bid and ask.
Just buy some shares Backwoodsman lol
I tend to agree with you BBN with the 4th drill hypothesis. I sold out after Serenity success but looking to get back in now that it's stabilising at 34p and because LO are nearly done. A2 is a lot lower risk and to my untrained eye it looks only upward from here if A2 confirms the model is correct so a good risk reward.
Yes he did sound upbeat and wanted to put the false promises in the past and restore confidence in the company and was pleased to do this by hitting the SD target of Q4 first gas. Mark also said there would be more investor calls in the future, I still have lots of questions and annoyed I didn’t get to ask them. He did tease by saying there will be more updates in the coming weeks and months.
Carj I couldn't ask a question but this is from the September 2019 presentation ....
"Based on SRM-2 historical production, SRM-3 is anticipated to come on-line at around gross 1,300bopd with an annual decline rate of 30-35%. First oil expected H1’20 following infrastructure completion."
Apologies only got half the call got cut off half way through and by the time I got back on the meeting had concluded. Here's the extra info on top of what was stated in the RNS...
Morocco Drilling Campaign 3 key objectives
First 7 are lower risk, will be able to flow gas into customer base instantaneously, 2 wells in north are testing the same play as the south, objective is to test whether it does extend to the north.
Further north Lalla Mimouna: 2 concessions that we have tested in the past but haven’t proved commerciality, drilling 3 deeper targets, larger in size and potential, testing deeper thermogenic play, could open up a new play. Further updates will be in the coming weeks and months
Morocco Demand: 8 customers, 4 have been slower to take up demand, seeing a change now that they are speeding up their consumptions in particular Peugeot. The Atlantic Freezone is the largest driver of new customers on top of these 8. Peugeot factory will act as a magnet to fill up the other 2/3 of rental space, Peugeot is ramping up in 2020.
South Disouq
Revenue for November and December sales will be received in January from EGas and expectation is to ramp up to 50 MMscf/d in Q1. The wells and CPF are currently performing very well.
Capacity is 60 Million for the CPF currently with throughput of 66 million, guidance is 50 to take into account that you don't produce 364 days a year, can expand the CPF in the future by ordering parts. Won't take as long due to knowing what needs to be ordered and the design. However can only expand output at SD through discovering and testing more wells in 2020 by exploring the lookalikes early 2020.
My own take from this Shakey is that the pipeline can take much more than 50 million but our CPF is currently limited to 66 and our gas supply is limited to the 4 wells, so to get higher than 50 million a year we would have to 1) find more gas at SD and 2) Order extra equipment to increase CPF capacity. Apologies for not being able to ask questions I got cut off when someone was asking about condensate income, if anyone has any info that would be great.
Excellent summary BBN, this price is a gift, at least the shorters give people more time to load up. I'm happy to be patient as the BOD are making a lot of big moves to become a multiple revenue stream business with little dilution to shareholders I might add.
Yes the automated small double trades are back eg 142 shares, does smell a bit I think it's someone still offloading and when it's done it should release the SP or it's someone trying to keep us down for a takeover. No TR1's though and as Shakey has said all the big holders have the same percentages roughly so a bit strange with all those chunky sells over the last few days. Could be one big player transfering over to another.
Investors call tomorrow sign up details below, SP seems to be ticking up slowly with the 50k buyer still at it.
SDX Energy Plc (AIM: SDX), the MENA-focused oil and gas company, will host a call for private investors at 3pm (GMT) on Wednesday 13 November 2019. Management will provide an operational update on its Egyptian and Moroccan assets on the call.
If you would like to participate in the event, please contact Ollie Mills at Celicourt Communications via email at OMills@celicourt.uk
At least someone is buying up the sells with 50k chunks! Looks like one big player selling to another. Any other thoughts apart from this and manipulation as to why we have such a pathetic rise on extremely good news?
Unfortunately Shakey is right it is gross 25 atm, I missed that in BBNs post. SD does have the ability to go higher than 50 in the future though with many lookalikes to discover and hook up to the CPF. The hard bit has been done getting into production.
NW Gemsa will decline but with SD now online, lots of cash and more exploration and high margin gas in Morocco, this is undervalued atm. My opinion of course do your own research. Good luck all.
Thanks BBN good to see you are still invested. I can’t believe the SP is at 23p post SD start up. I think 2020 will be a good year for both BMN and SDX. Alas I feel both currently have big sellers in the background/manipulation, need Alfa to come and do an analysis of the SDX trades. All I know is if I hold onto both their true value will be realised by the market.