Member Info for harrycarter

My conclusion from the presentation is Anchois is going to be very disappointing.

What else…insider trading…leaky rig…the usual AIM oilie shenanigans.

The pilot hole must have reached target by now. AP and mates know if its good news or bad news. Even if they arent allowed to disclose, they can make things clear if they want. Good news…they will say stuff like “We are very confident that enog will announce more gas blah blah blah). If its bad news…”as you all know we cannot answer certain questions in a closed period.” Plus body language will tell all. So Im pretty sure you will have a good idea by this time tomorrow if its a duster or its stonking good.

I sold my small holding at a small loss a long time ago. Ive watched it drift down ever since. Whilst all the while happy clappers talked of a 5 or 10 or 20 bagger. A billion market cap for a two bit outfit with 30% of 25 thousand barrels a day?? And no gas price agreed?? Loukos?? Green hydrogen?? Its all nonsense fuelled by chancers and fools. And no, I am not talking it down so I can get in cheap. Keep well away from all AIM oilies.

What a load of tosh.

Price action here does not bode well. I’ve said it before…regardless of risk (which I think is high) the price should be nudging up at this stage of an important drill. The fact that its nudging down screams…bad news + leaky rig + trickle of insider sells.

Forget Jimmy’s technical bs and look at the price action.

Happy clappers…don’t say you weren’t warned.

Uninformed ramping is dangerous. Ignore.

Good post.

Loukos is not interesting. First well was dry hole. Second well was claimed to be a discovery. But no test. I’ve suggested on here before that they had to say something positive about the second well. They have promised to test it. And it will be a dud. Announced at the same time as hopefully good news from Anchois. The old AIM oilie bad news-good news trick.

I still believe that there is a good chance that Anchois will disappoint. I’ve given my reasons on here in the recent past.

Some of the stuff on here is crazy optimistic.

The problem is this. It is a deep water gas field comprising loads of pockets, zones and produced water risk. My guess is that whatever enog finds out from this well will take them back to the drawing board. A year of engineering. Updating the environmental assessment. Preparing a field plan. And not forgetting a gas price. What that means is delays and more cash raises. Loukos is not going to come to the rescue either. Where is the test on that? You would have thought it was ready to go waiting for the cash. Its now September. The announced a discovery in May FFS. This share remains very high risk.

There is too much un-informed happy clapping on here for me to keep quiet.

On the 28th May, Chariot announced an onshore gas discovery.

A month later, they announced that they had entered into an agreement to commercialize that gas.

In spite of the above the sp fell back to 6.5P.

Then a month before the biggest well in their history...a supposed slam dunk...they announce a $6million cash raise to keep the lights on, to pay for a test of the onshore discovery and to invest in a mutli-billion barrel oil prospect.

Why did they do that if the SP is going to double, triple or quadruple on the back of the biggest well in their history?

Why not borrow a few million from the bank or use their own cash until the SP has gone up?

Why not defer the onshore test for a few months ?

Why not sign up for the multi-billion oil prospect and defer the signature bonus for a few months whilst they dot the is and cross the ts on the contract?

In my opinion the answer is .... It's because they knew that the biggest well in their history has got a lot of risk and if it doesn't work out, they will be in serious trouble.

Bottom line...they did a cash raise with the sp at a multi-year low just prior to spudding a well which folks on this board say is going to double triple or quadruple the sp.

It doesn't add up.

Honestly, I do not know where to begin. Phases in a developement are Exploration, Apraisal, Define, Execute, Operate, De-commission. The project is still in Appraisal (No well test yet. No field development plan. No gas sales agreement). Appraisal is just about to begin. It may be that more apparisal wells are required. When the field is fully appraised the proper design work can start. Chariot's work was not proper design work because it was founded on guess work. I'm sorry but that much is clear to me from all I have read. I do not believe that Energean or its banks are going to sanction a billion quids worth of expenditure on a wing and a prayer. That is all I am going to say on this until the appraisal well results are published.

You have hit on one of the biggest problems with Anchois. The reservoir is not an nice big tank with a big aquifer below. It is lots of lenses with gas shows on a log and lots of water sources. This means big problems. Especially for a deepwater subsea development. My prediction for what its worth is that the appraisal well will highlight some big problems. Even if connected volume is proven and gas flows, I predict that Energean will go back to the drawing board. I think they will prefer to repeat what they did in Israel (an FPSO). That means they will have to find more gas to underpin the development. More exploration and more appraisal and more engineering. If it goes that way, Chariot is finished. Let's see.

It is very complex. Requiring multiple producing zones in the well. Each zone will have to be tested separately to determine what is there and if it will flow. You are talking about one of the most complex deep water gas fields in the world. I would imagine that Duncan Wallace isn’t getting much sleep as spud approaches. Has he got it right. I have my doubts.

I didnt say spud in November.

Yes…testing should be complete end October but Chariot doesn't control analysis and publishing results. Enog may sit on the result until November. Makes it harder for Chariot chancers to bury Loukos bad news. Watch this space.

And down she goes.

Delayed Anchois spud means that any well test will not be announced before November. If my theory is right, that means the Loukos test will be postponed to October to keep the bad news - good news ploy alive.

That mega Tw at on ADVFN. You mean the one who predicted a cash raise at 5.5p when people on this board were talking up a multi-bagger.

They call us the happy clappers on here. And they are not wrong.

I am tryng to provide a dose of reality.

And another thing.

The operation in Morocco is costing a lot of money and providing a very nice life style for exapts. The farm down was alwasys going to threaten that. An operator needs an operation in Morocco. A minority JV partner does not. So what to do. Take on the SDX cast-off as detailed below and keep the operation in Morocco. It has got to be a success or heads will roll. So a massive incentive to spin it for as long as possible. At shareholder expense of course.

The sudden return to oil is also intereting. Why would a company describing itself as a transitional energy company go back to oil exploration? Why not focus every waking hour on the two great gas businesses they claim to have going?

I think I know the answer to that too. It is an old fashioned job-creation scheme. Or a bolt hole for when Loukos falls over.

It is just that simple. They do what they have to do to keep the grotesque salaries flowing.

Let's tell it like it is please.

Jim,

I've got to put you straight on a few things.

On Loukos. SDX let it go. They know the Gharb basin better than you. And they let it go. When Chariot got hold of it, they started out talking of small targets that could agglomerate to make a useful business. A revenue stream to tide them over whilst waiting for the Anchois bonanza. Then they got creative like they do and started talking about it as an Anchois extension and multi-tcf prospect below the main play. All speculative nonsense to create interest. And it worked to an extent with blokes like yourself. regurgitating the nonsense on here. They spent nine months on it, drilled a well and its a duster. But they spin it as a near miss like they do. The second well is drilled and they declare a discovery but mysteriously do not test it. Even though they installed a completion and a christmas tree. My theory is that the logs do not look good. Instead of announcing a second disappointing result which would have effectively killed Loukos, they decided to play for time. They announced an agreement with Vivo. The agreement no doubt states thta Vivo will take the gas if it is found to be there in commercial quantities. So let's see where that goes. Back to the delay. My theory is that Chariot knows that the test will be disappointing so they plan to sync it with the Anchois test in the hope that a good news announcement on Anchois will bury the bad news announcement on Loukos which they know is coming. This trick has been played on investors in the AIM oilie space over and over again.

Now to Anchois and your theory that Energean has sold off assets to invest in Morocco. Is that really true or is it pure speculation. When Energean bought Edison, they acquired a portfolio with assets all over the place. They didn't want many of those assets in the first place and have rationalized the portfolio and made a healthy profit to boot. The transaction is absolutely nothing to do with their plans in Morocco. My concern with Anchois now is the test is make or break for Chariot. If it doesn't come in, Chariot is over. And yet investors are not being reminded of the risk that the test might reveal problems. I'll say it again for the record. Anchois was discovered some 15 years ago by Repsol. It has not been tested since. Chariot spent a huge amount of time and money pushing the development without ever appraising the field. It was a spin operation not founded on appraisal. So you are betting on the ability of one person called Duncan Wallace to call it right. Chariot also spent a long time trying to find a partner. Chariot themselves said there was huge interest. Again they span it like they do. Dozens of companies interested who all fell away. Except for Energean. Energean is not an experienced explorer. Somebody there drank Duncan Wallace's kool aid and gambled. They may be proved right but its not guaranteed. And if it is a dud, it will be disaapointing for Energean but no more than that.

Income stream could be many years away with many a cashier raise twixt now and then.

Loukos is a dud. Forget about it.

Anchois…well it is brown trousers time as Finchy says on the other board. And he is right.

Repsol walked away from the discovery.

It hasn’t been tested in the 15 years since the discovery.

Chariot have talked it up in typical AIM oily fashion but truth is they haven’t even submitted a development plan.

In the farm down process there was much interest (according to Chariot) and they all walked.

Enoch hasn’t got a lot of reservoir expertise. They got a field on the cheap at the bottom of the market and took advantage of desperate contractors . Good on em. They did that well

But honestly…nobody really knows what the test will reveal.

So make ready those brown trousers as spud approaches.

You know it makes sense.

You are in for a very long wait sir.