Member Info for harel

Lets wait for flow test, amounts and recovery factor first.
If wn is 200m of recoverable barrels its 120m barrels net to rbd, so taking 2$ per barrel gives a value of 240m$, if its 100m recoverable barrels its 120m$ assuming it flows well.

Maneater wrote an interesting post about the value of oil in the ground, he is not a deramper, he explained himself very well and gave exemples.
He was wrong though!
You cant compere assets in the ukraine with political problems to a prime location, huge discovery very close to existing infrastructure, with fast track production which is an immediate buy out target.
Oil in the ground value between 0-5$ per barrel, and gives value to derisked prospects as well.
In a high poo enviornment this discovery would be valued 4-5$ a barrel, in todays enviornment its value is 2-3$ a barrel, and while covid is still around you can add up to 20% discount.
A buy out scenario will be no less then 3$ a barrel.
AIMHO

If rbd as majority holder decides to pay it as dividend then it will be paid as dividend.

Thanks offer, my prediction is 0.4p on bad results and not moving any where on 2021, on 200m barrels ill give it 3p.
Thought il catch a hype here, obviously i was wrong, hope to get my 2.75p avg back and move on.

Offer, please complete your analysis, you have 6-8p on good results, 10-15 on great results, 15-25 on unbelievable results, but what is your estimate on the 60% chances of bad results?

D,
The next step in kaieteur is another drill commitment by exxon by sep. 21 to be drilled on 2022.
A kaieteur updated cpr to be out by 15.2.21.

hopefully seller is about to be done.

can i ask why you state that pel94 will expire in 9 months when gbp just rns'd they bought and reprocessing the 2d seismic which is the requirement to move to the next period?

Just sold, seller got to be close to finish..

looking at the book it looks like all sells are being served before the next wave uplift..

p,
when do you think flow test results are due?

3-4 months?
flow test should take about 4 weeks, at least that what it usually takes..
any thoughts?

when do you think flow test will be completed?

so for those who invested on spud the risk/reward is:

transformational better then expected results = 30% loss

good results but not great = 50% loss

bad results = 80% loss

Initial Exploration Period Years 1 and 2
- Undertake geological, geochemical and geophysical and related studies of all the data,
including a gravity and magnetic study as well as a source rock and basin modelling study
- Licence the existing 2010-vintage 3D seismic data survey (announced 7th April 2020), and
all 2D seismic data of reasonable quality and reprocess it
• Initial Exploration Period Years 3 and 4 (Global can elect to relinquish after year 2)
- If the Company elects to continue into years 3 and 4 , then additionally the Company will
acquire and process 2,000 square kilometres of 3D seismic data in the Eastern Area
- If the Company elects not to enter into years 3 and 4, the Block will be relinquished
• First and Second Renewal Exploration Periods
- First and Second Renewal Periods, of two
years, each with a well commitment.

Can any one explain if the last phrase means they are commited to a well in order to move to the next period?

The company's mc is as it was the last two years, they just lost most of their potential reserves in pel29 that they were promoting them selves with.
They didnt know or believed an extension will not be granted as covid 19 is a force majeure, trust me, they are in shock from that outcome.
they dont have any advantage in bidding for more licenses and now pel29 is not only not theirs to f.o it put them in a bad place trying to farm out pel94 as they "compete".
Im not saying this company doesnt have the chance to f.o in the future but it will take time and no news is expected the next few months so its only down from here on in the next quarter, the more time it takes to f.o pel94 will be in danger, they will have their back against the wall and more dilution will follow, majors are predators, they know the timelines and they get what they want on their terms.
I follow gbp for a few years and still waiting for the right time to buy in, i think it will be in the first half 2021.
Gla

Made a last top up at 2.5, now waiting for fundamentals, either the stena will spud or nor, its as simple as that.
Any delay will be a disaster, on the other hand if we spud there is no turning back and hype is expected.

these are not new lows, the market cap was a lot lower before the placing and that was before they lost pel0029.

Very interesting, obviously something is going on, these volumes are not normal!
Either we have a big discovery or someone with inside information is spreading romours to sell out, my guess is the results are good but been burned so many times so im keeping my investment as it is.

its only facts,
the update rns was bad, not a disaster, but off expectations, if there was a good outcome the sp would double at the least.
now we all hoping the side track will prove better results, the rumours are nice but such rumours followed by II sell out doesnt build confidence, be sure II's know better then us and they act like they know its a semi duster.
il keep my small gamble here for results but I understand its a gamble at this point.
I like to read posters that are not invested as they are not talking out of position and can see the facts clearly especially a poster like phoebus which i happen to know as a great researcher.