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I wonder if we're before a short squeeze, as gil sais in the align interview, a big short position opened before the jhi deal was about to be completed, the fact jhi backed of due to the lock up issue proves its related.
Jhi still have some eco shares but probably not enough to cover.
The new 3b/4b deal and the near term spud might create a squeeze.
Gil sais on spud the sp will atleast double, it might prove to be optimistic but 40p will be great..
Gil also value a gazania hit as a billion dollar discovery net to eco, equals 2.5p, again thats optimistic but lets hope for a hit (40% cos) and eco will 5bag easy..

if they hit gazania they already at 1p, a second discovery and its 2p.

"Looks like the campaign will be a two wells campaign in 2023 not three.." (Tue-12:44).

Checked some maps and looking at the size of the 3b/4b prospect makes venus look like a tiny discovery, can understand why all the majors are competing for a bite..
No small cap in the world is able to enter to the top 5 blocks in the orange basin at this point, but gil knows how to leveage his position with this steal, cant wait to see how this farm out will unfold.

Eco Atlantic has contracted the semi-submersible "Island Innovator" for the drilling which is expected to start in September 2022. The water depth at the drilling location is 149 m and drilling will last in the region of 25 days for the 2,200 m well.

If successful and of sufficient size and quality to be developed, a likely scenario would involve a Floating Storage Unit (FSU) - produced gas would be re-injected and oil exported via tankers to Cape Town's Astron refinery. The refinery is due to restart in Q4 2022. African Energy Corporation (Partner in the group) estimates the targeted prospects to hold in excess of 250 MMbbls (35% within Gazania and 65% within Namaqualand).

At a conservative oil price estimate of $65/bbl, the minimum economic field size is estimated to be around 70 MMbbls recoverable, while a discovery in the region of 300 MMbbls is expected to have a Net Present Value (NPV) of ~ USD 1.6 billion.

With Brent Oil prices forecasted to remain above 90 USD/bbl for the next decade, a discovery of 300 MMbbls is expected to have an NPV above USD 3 billion and expected payback within 5 years. The breakeven price (BEP) for a discovery of between 160 to 300 MMbbls remains below 45 USD/bbl, but the BEP increases dramatically below 160 MMbbls. This is attributed to the fact that even for a small field size with far fewer wells, the required OPEX to run the infrastructure at lower rates remain largely unchanged.

Should Gazania-1's findings be a success, the positive economics point to a relatively low-risk project for which FID is expected to follow soon after.

[https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/the-upcoming-and-highly-anticipated-gazania1-well.html](https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/the-upcoming-and-highly-anticipated-gazania1-well.html)

Looks like the campaign will be a two wells campaign in 2023 not three..

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/south-africa-eco-atlantic-boosts-stake-in-exciting-orange-basin-block-where-two-probes-could-be-drilled-in-2023/2-1-1246267

tlw, after the merge, got the funds to go ahead with orinduik, right now i would focus on its slope beebei-potaro well which is schedule to be completed in 3 weeks, a hit there is great for eco in term of de risk and in term of tlw's will to drill the next orinduik well.
as for the last few rns's by eco it appears the early year orinduik well is a done deal.
the short term for eco's exploration looks like that:
gazania-1 in two months - funded.
orinduik early 2023 - funded.
canje - 3 wells +/- early 2023 - no funds required.
3b/4b - 3 wells+/- 2023 - carried, farm out expected by/around year end.

can you tell me of one investor/writer that is never wrong?
even buffet has a lot of failures..
at first i thought you just dont get it, now it appears you are just here to complain...

The key for an exploration company to be successfull is to be able to drill as much wells as possible with as little dilution as possible, once the first oil is hit its multiples and all funds issues are solved.
What eco did is raising a small amount at a great price that will provide it the opportunity to take part of the farm out and get 2-3 wells carry, thats what you want!

You got it all wrong my friend, eco just prevented more dilution, two wells would cost them 35m$ which, if gazania failed, would dilute us to the bone at a 15p price, instead for 12m$ at 30p eco is prepered for a farm out for 2-4 wells.
Eco was in a strong position negotiating this deal and got all the info of whats on offer and surely got a better price for the benefit of the jv.
Now instead of having a potential 1 well next year with no funds, eco will have a major operating the block, 3 wells campaign fully carried or mostly carried.

Guys, stop speculating, i talked with gil, this deal is brilliant!
No farm out can be made without a green light by eco and aoi, eco wants to be part of a f.o but needed more interest to remain with 15% post f.o.
The jv decided to make this deal to solve all issues.
A major will step in, eco will farm out 10.5% (40%) for atleast 2 wells carry.
It doesnt get any better then that.
The seismic is still in work so i guess it will take some time.

This deal is a preparation for a farm out, 12m paid in orde to farm out 40% to a major for much more though this price tag alone keeps eco with 15% and 2 wells carry.
Its all about the big picture.

Big dilution?
Azinem was bought for 24m$, todays transaction give eco's 20% a 36m$ valuation!
Thats only for block 3b/4b.
That deal was a steal!

the deal represents a block value of 200m$ gross, obviously a major will pay more and probably leave eco with 15% for a 2-3 wells carry but taking this deal as a benchmark, eco's interest is worth 55m$, 60% of its total value!!

Contacted the mngt, it appears to be a part of a bigger plan!
Davwal, you were spot on!!
No less then 7 majors are competing on a farm in deal to the block so eco is just preparing for a deal hence the premium of the fundraise.
One more thing, we were talking about a carry of 50% of the first well by eco which would make it very expensive but i was corrected, eco needs to fund only its share of the block.
Block 3b/4b is a stabroek look alike, a big campaign led by a major is coming our way next year, thats one of the most drill ready blocks in the hottest place on earth and will be carried by a major, after the jhi deal termination, eco is back in spot light and still remain an exposure to canje for "free"...

if that is whats behind the increase its a brilliant move at a great premium..

I also expect eco will farm down 20-25% of block 2b for a partial carry leaving it with 20-30 million$ post gazania..
Such events will change the sentiment..

In the energy sector that was defensive while tech and other sectors dropped.
The only good thing here is that eco will drill soon and if we hit oil nothing will stop a big rerate.
Now the the jhi deal is off eco is "mc light" and a discovery will rerate eco to the 70's

topped up 0.245p, next stop 0.22p, hopefully it wont get there..

back in after a while, looks like a great entry point.
markets dropped living a nice big gap to rebound, my guess is a rally of about two-three weeks until the next fed decision, so im hopefully back for short term but in any case the serenity appraisal is soon enough so this investment is hedged..