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@Monty... 100% agree. Well said.
"Lots of companies do well on LSE like M&S, Next, Tesco etc generally. THG is different to them because CEO’s don’t own their real estate and rent it out to their own entities. Their accounts are 100% transparent and their cash on hand is real (not rolled into equivalent cash which means in used borrowing facilities). They have track records of good governance and answer any question at their share holders meeting, they have truly independent renown trusted BOD members. THG is MM’s private project with little regard and indeed sustain for shareholders,"
I'd be very cautious of believing things like "Let's see what 2024 brings" responses on LinkedIn and even some of the comments on the conference call. It may be true. It may happen this year. But it also may not just like many other things that have been hinted at (and even RNSd to say they're happening) and then don't.
Please consider what your opportunity cost is for you. Returns elsewhere may far exceed what you can claw back here, even if underwater. Even a 100% premium to SP is only about 130p. 200% about 195-200p. 🤷♂️ Might never happen.
Hi all, don't be too down. The update was good but the market has had a difficult week. This isn't all down to THG or MM.
Like Josh, consider myself lucky to have sold out in 2 chunks at 87p and 74p. Bought back at 66p today. In a funny way I hope MM is reading this and knows I'm finally making money as FAST CASH. 😂 Because he certainly hasn't made me any in the last 2 years!
To be fair I've come back in this afternoon. I think this is a good price. I'd given up on hoping for a big rerate on this. Whilst waiting years I've missed several opportunities which would have made me as much as a rerate would. Not prepared to do that anymore even if it does mean I miss a bonanza announcement.
@PMH I don't think you're right with what you're looking at with regard to downsides and risk. The guidance was largely met. Cash position undoubtedly increased. The investor call was good and professional. Matt and the team did well.
The video and LinkedIn post just needs ignoring. It's soap opera stuff and he's just making himself look daft. Typical narcissist stuff.
I think there are a lot of positives going forward and I hope a deal will be done this year to realise true value.
The risks as I see them: Whey prices are a massive impact on profitability. Indeed with them going up again its going to make it tough for nutrition but it will also do so for competitors. I think Ingenuity continues to be a risk. We keep talking about GMV but GMV is the biggest red herring you could have. The profitability of the individual contracts is the important bit. £175m sounds a lot, but it's the GMV, not THG margin.
I'm hoping to come back in on this around 60-65p having exited yesterday at 74. I think there is still value to be realised here and hope to be part of that.
I've also sold in 2 tranches at around 74p. I'm sure none of you care... 😂
However, to explain my logic:
- Whey prices have increased and I think this is a missing headwind on Nutrition.
- Given the value of sales in licensing, I clocked the comment about the actual contribution to bottom line in THG and it is negligible. I don't see a lot of growth in this.
- Nutrition is fiercely competitive and I don't like the rebrand. I think to not grow in current market is worrying.
- Beauty has done well and if I could invest in that only, I definitely would.
- Ingenuity isn't bringing in the business I thought it would. H&B is great and should be commended, but GMV is a poor marker of progress in Ingenuity. Need to understand contribution to profitability.
I thought the call was very good. Handled well by the team. I'm pleased for them to see the SP increase.
Wishing you all the best for the future whether you are in or out.
I agree @OAC.
It's all just "meh".
FCF was met. At least that's something.
Nutrition is a disappointment. Rapidly expanding market. (No wonder they look depressed. 😂)
Hoping the market doesn't punish too much...but let's face it the H&B announcement to me is a damage limitation announcement.
I'm hoping for an RNS good or bad as a TU tomorrow as if it is good, great. If its bad, gets it out the way. Of it doesn't come, market will punish us for the uncertainty. IR financial calendar still not updated. I believe no update is the worst outcome for shareholders really.
I agree. It could be:
Maybe Jan blues.
Maybe they're working on on-boarding a Whale and it's hard work.
Maybe they've been set v high targets for this year.
Maybe THG is cutting costs.
Literally no idea. Might ask one of them 🤔
Can you actually imagine if Kong did cost £200k or even £150k and yet THG posts a FCF miss?
It's just unthinkable in terms of governance. I can't quite believe that'd be the case. 🤷♂️
One things for sure. I see a lot of THG employees and they've all looked totally depressed in the last 2 weeks. I just don't know why. Yet.
I can live with THG not liking the shorts, having disdain for them, even some fast money shareholders.
What winds me up most @PMH and @Soundman is the absolute disdain of THG for those who came in at IPO. THG and many individuals happily took the money, got rich off it. Could argue never need to work again because of it. Many PIs will have come in at that point with their own hard earned cash.
Yes, you can argue people should "average down" or "they take their risks - it's business".
But the way THG treats those individuals, those small holders who have done absolutely zero wrong - for example the chap who replied to one of MMs LinkedIn posts - is absolutely appalling. It is hypocritical. It is full of disdain. It lacks loyalty, trust and any acknowledgement that are technically joint owners of the business. Now that to me really is the action of what some might call pond scum.
@TheSoundMan
I do agree. That is all that's needed.
I'm suspicious of the IR and MM LinkedIn silence. Whilst I've totally run out of patience, I also wonder (hope) that the silence signals something big around the corner. Something that will give us a boost and MM/THG comes through. I know it's unlikely.
@PMH198
I can see something coming in from the sides too. I know we just have to wait and see. Nothing we can do.
I do wonder what the point of Allen and all these new NEDs are? Surely they must have picked up on all this? Aren't they sorting is? Isn't their job governance and assurance? I just don't get it...if I were in the senior management, NED or IR in THG I'd be personally worried about how working here would reflect badly on my CV. I wouldn't touch anyone who worked from here for my organisation or they'd have to have a bloody good story as to how they didn't sort it. My only conclusion is collectively they are powerless to improve. 🤷♂️🤷♂️
As I say. Just back with the basics that governance isn't there and that's not hard.
No date on calendar for Q4 update is poor. What do IR actually do? That is not a rhetorical question...but what do they physically do at their desks each day because they don't do F all for investors?
Heard same all over again this week. Nutrition down, beauty up (but not to extent some think) and ingenuity same as. Results there or there abouts.
Expect v little detail. It's a Q4 update. It's not FY results.
Not surprised the LinkedIn posts have dried up.