Member Info for happysparrow

Canada dipped below 150p, now about 152p. London has seen persistent seller, who has now sold at 155p. Probably North? Will they go lower?
Might expect to see the price to buy drop to 156-157p soon; perhaps even more so tomorrow? Have topped up too early here; seemed too good a chance to miss. Always the way.

PS: thanks for the excellent post with information on Niger EPS

Z- From the top of my head, I think I recall being mentioned before that:
- Vitol was behind the $50m facility
- we have BoD links (Chairman?) with Vitol

But agreed, don't recall Vitol listed as a stakeholder before?

'An FID is expected by early 2021' Poor journalism or do they know something?
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/new-age-given-approval-to-apply-for-new-etinde-license/

https://www.investiraucameroun.com/energie/2501-15869-le-britannique-new-age-va-solliciter-un-nouvel-accord-d-exploitation-sur-le-projet-gazier-etinde-au-cameroun

(Business in Cameroon) - The British oil and gas operator Bowleven announced, on January 25, 2021, that New Age, its compatriot and partner on the Etindé gas project, in the southwest region of Cameroon, has received the approval from the Cameroonian side to request a new authorization to operate this oil and gas block.

"? We are pleased to announce that following a constructive dialogue between the partners of the Etinde joint venture (Bowleven, New Age and Lukoil, editor's note) and the SNH (National Hydrocarbons Company), the authorization of request for a replacement operating agreement was granted. This is very positive news for the development of Etinde. Because, it eliminates the possibility for the government of Cameroon to withdraw the Etinde license from the partners of the joint venture, after the end of the initial six-year development implementation period in January 2021 ?”, welcomes Eli Chahin, CEO of Bowleven.

According to Bowleven, the new operating agreement concerns "? the production of hydrocarbons, including the delivery of gas to thermal power stations or any other project confirmed by the State ?". Thanks to this envisaged agreement, the Etindé license partners hope, at the end of new exploration campaigns, to reveal sufficient reserves to make an investment decision in 2021, and thus to produce and market natural gas.

This project is also of interest to Victoria Oil & Gas (VOG), parent company of Gaz du Cameroun (GDC), which set up the country's very first natural gas processing unit, in the suburbs of the Cameroonian economic capital. On February 5, 2020, VOG signed with the promoters of the Etinde project, which covers an area of ??2,316 km 2 , a “? non-binding letter of intent ?” to be able to source natural gas from the Etinde field, which could become the 3 e operational gas field in Cameroon, Kribi and after Logbaba.

What is to be made of the switch from drilling (4 wells now 1) to compression in 2020-23?
Have not done the sums (porschefund, please?), but skimming through the RNS can see a big chunk of expenditure now falls in 2021, and that there is $80m debt service, and that Niger EPS for end of 2021 is subject to market conditions and financing. In other words, I might not expect anything to be left in the pot for Niger EPS in 2021 unless settled income is higher than their $205m guidance (Nb: 'we do not anticipate production levels associated with the Group's three principal gas sales agreements to drive incremental revenue generation above this level in 2021.').
Happy to be corrected on this assumption, of course.

Interesting post on Advfn Blvn:
'imo if the russians help sonara/cameroon to restructure their debth and help them to bring the refinery back on track with repairing their infrastructure they will also buy us and probably vog.'

Background:
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/africa/refining-africa/283633/sonara-cameroon-reconstruction-debt/
https://www.businessincameroon.com/economy/0702-9948-russian-lukoil-in-cameroon-to-negotiate-the-reconst
https://www.thevoicenews.net/2020/04/06/anglophones-crisis-russian-guns-to-protect-oil-deal/

Could have written that myself - bloody useless the lot of them, spineless and corrupt.
Here's some more cynicism for you (posted on lse VOG):
https://bylinetimes.com/2021/01/21/the-brexit-effect-trade-deals-outrank-human-rights-concerns/

BookMD - Aksa will have looked into this from the outset and taken a view then. It is still very much a part of BLVN's FID considerations. See p18 of presentation:
Key Uncertainties
? Domestic supply is hampered by the need to sanction and
fund new gas fired electricity generation schemes.
? Electricity transmission infrastructure improvements required.
? Concerns regarding surety of funds from electricity sales.

Our government are ****s.
https://bylinetimes.com/2021/01/21/the-brexit-effect-trade-deals-outrank-human-rights-concerns/

BookMD - Regards Aksa: well worth looking at the Bowleven presentation - https://www.bowleven.com/system/files/uploads/financialdocs/agm-presentation-2020-master-1_2.pdf
Blvn have 2 options for the domestic route - Aksa or Limbe. They have 1 tcf of gas to supply. Both they and the Cameroonian Govt want this to happen. An FID needs to happen in the next 6-12 months. The Govt is likely to make terms attractive enough for Aksa to invest. Too, both VOG and BLVN are dependent on Aksa investment. This will happen this year, imo. [Nb: Blvn licence renewal end of this month. This will be a big blow to all if not renewed - highly unlikely to be withheld imo].

Yes, holding here. Expecting a return to higher levels soon.
Next news is quarterly update; at least one more customer tied-in.
Then news on RSM arbitration - perhaps they will pull the case at the last minute to avoid costs?
The Big News: Eneo, West Med or Aksa could come at any time, but expect all 3 will come in in 2021.
Also news on Royalty Obligations and taxation issues likely to be settled this year imo.

Thanks, AJW.
Also: the potential for drilling, testing, appraisal and production from up to six (6) new wells on the WNA site over a 25 year period.

RNS needs to be read in full - it was a GDC decision to crystallise the liability post period-end:
Also includes:
Royalty Obligations
The separation of the business into upstream and downstream business units is a requirement of the Petroleum and Gas Codes in Cameroon, and is an industry norm.
Operationally, the separation and a downstream framework makes sense for the Company as the Logbaba Field depletes over time and the Company seeks to source other gas for the pipeline network. In order to comply with the Gas and Petroleum Codes in Cameroon, the Logbaba partners are working with the Cameroonian Government to separate the business into its upstream and downstream components. The parties are in ongoing negotiations with SNH regarding the mechanism and fiscal arrangements for, amongst others: the potential participation of SNH in the downstream activities; the allocation of assets, liabilities, revenues and costs, and the associated transfer pricing mechanisms; and the net settlement required by SNH to take ownership of their entitlement. One of the matters under negotiation has been the parties' obligation to pay state royalties. In prior years this potential liability was disclosed as a contingent liability. Following a GDC decision post year-end, the royalty liability has now been crystalised and the Company has accordingly provided US$10.2 million at 30 June 2020; however, GDC has requested to "net out" against amounts that may be owed by SNH. The presentation of the consolidated Financial Statements has required management's judgement with regard to the outcome of these negotiations to ensure that the Financial Statements present a fair and reasonable view of the financial position and results of the Company.

and:
Accounting for joint operations
On 12 June 2017, Société Nationale des Hydrocarbures ("SNH") exercised its right in accordance with the Participation Agreement to participate for 5% of the upstream operations of the Logbaba Project. This participation is retrospective and therefore SNH are deemed to have participated since first production. The net share of this venture that has been included in these Interim Financial Statements is 57% of the upstream operations and 60% of the downstream operations.
The Interim Financial Statements are prepared on the basis that downstream operations charge cost plus 15% to the upstream operations as a fee for marketing the gas. This transfer pricing mechanism has not been formally agreed to by the Parties of the Logbaba Concession but represents management judgement of the most likely outcome of the current negotiations. Shared services have been allocated between upstream and downstream operations based on management's assessment of the activity during the period.

I'm surprised no comments on this. My guess is he's the mystery buyer that has been pushing up the price this year, having to buy into the market as there's to be no more dilution. Plenty of firepower there, him and Monique. And as he put a question about the Kraken into the call (presumably him, not another of the same name) I guess he's still buying; and today MMs will be looking to fill a background order. All supposition of course, until we see see a TR1 at some stage.

Interesting that he asked a question on the Kracken.
Is he a major shareholder here yet?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Siberian_petroleum_basin
The West Siberian petroleum basin (variously known as the West Siberian hydrocarbon province, Western Siberian oil basin, etc.) is the largest hydrocarbon (petroleum and natural gas) basin in the world covering an area of about 2.2 million km2.

I think I recall RF mentioning $10-15m sale price for our West Med assets?

P - Thanks.
Regards VOG: You did well! Then a basket case. Has recently moved from 2p to 8p in November; back now at 4.5p. This is the kind of recovery play I go for as a punt - had appalling management before, some say 'crooked' - but has had good new management for the past 9 months who seem to be resolving issues. Very high risk (and negative court case end of Jan possible?) but has 3+ possible events that may push it up to 12p+ this year. (Not for widows and orphans).
Too, have TXP dreams that may bring me an animal sanctuary or Nature Reserve, probably abroad as land is so much cheaper. Paul Baay is going to make a lot of people very happy here.
GLA and fingers crossed.

Maybe, Bully - but he has just bought into SAVE. Posters there know I have reservations about that one until the big seller has gone and until we know we are getting paid - keep a close eye on 'Trade Receivables' and cash in the bank. In my view I also find it difficult to trust the management. I might invest there in 6 months time (if I miss the boat, another will come along). But on MTs 3-5 year timeframe, then it has great potential.

Hi, photographer - my tip would be to stick with TXP. It is very easy to lose your money, even if you know what you are doing. Over time my small fry has been sold and I now have 80% in TXP and 10% JSE; and 10% in VOG, UJO, PANR. I stick to O&G because this is where my research and experience lies. A good way to view TXP is not to look at the highest share price but the % movement. So £3 to £6 is only a 100% rise, no different from a share moving from 3p to 6p. Therefore, which is more likely over a certain time frame, and what is the risk? That is the investment decision to make. Always choose top quality management, it makes all the difference. Perhaps worth looking at recovery plays where good new management comes in?