Member Info for hansthedude

All I’ll say is - this is another Kier from everything I’ve seen thus far - and starts in a much better position.

Amazing recent results, terrible big partner news sure, but big compensation to drive towards the upcoming stream of positive news.

Think of it this way. What else can Ocado lose now? Kroger was the only bullet left for the shorters, regardless of how far it falls - this will remain a buy for me. This time next year - it’ll be a complete different rhetoric.

Maybe I’ll finally be able to afford that trip to Iceland without needing to think twice.

GLA DYOR

After many years of following this share, I'm so happy to see how far it has come, and more glad that my gut when viewing their financials year after year was not wrong.

My only wish is that I sold before the massive COVID dip, as initially it was one of the few stocks rising in that period.

But here we are, with only amazing news in our near future.

Is it still undervalued? Absolutely yes. I attribute this to the massive institution ownership, so maybe it will stay undervalued for the time being.

GLA

I agree with you Panther, don't get me wrong, I'm primarily just talking about this year's full-year dividend.

Just think keeping our immediate-term visions on track avoids disappointment, Kier is easily worth over £3 today in my view, but I'm a long-time bull - so of course I would say that ahah

I'm not fully up to date with the ISG stuff, but hoping it's as good as you say, only means more revenue for Kier to make margins off, and therefore more dividends for us :D

GLA

@PantherPat,

IMHO following the trend form the first dividend, we could see some further suppression up and till the ex-dividend (although hopefully not), only then after it may we reach the heights of 180p.

Heck for the first dividend there was a 30p suppression from announcement to ex-div date (but tbf we never had this kind of rally at that time), then after that first dividend it reached an all year high, makes you question why investors weren't piling in for the dividend at the time.

Personally I don't see logic in it, so I reckon the big boys have either got a bug with their algorithms or it's some manipulation of data (e.g: they want to say 'we got X yield percentage for all our dividends this year!') and the low first dividend didn't accommodate that scenario being ~1.4% yield at the time (1.67p / 124p) (keeping in mind that it was lower when dividend was first announced ~1.2% @140)

If the latter is true, then I don't see any chance of this moving near or past the ~180p mark (being ~1.9% yield), personally I think a positive trend will be limited to 2.1% maximum @165 (atm we're at ~2.4% @146)

My only reasoning is aggregate yield figures being 1.4% + 2.1% = 3.5% this annum (I know that's probably not the actual yield %, but big investors probably like seeing their yields at minimum over 3.5% yearly anyways as it beats inflation)

Although I'm hoping to be wrong and will be absolutely delighted to take a profit slice for once post ex-dividend.

DYOR GLA

Now is probably the best time for guaranteed short-term results.

Great in depth post @Panther, personally I suspect a minimum dividend of 3.33p, based on how Kier has done their dividends in the distant past, this amounts to about half your 7% estimate (mine being an extra ~2.3%, amounting to this total years yield being ~3.4%), tomorrow will reveal the reality of it.

Hoping for a stable price increase to at least 160p following news too, but with Kier it's always hit or miss on news.

Anyways good luck all & as always DYOR

@bigpunt
Sorry for my lack of clarity there, what I meant was that from an investment POV the dividend income we shareholders could potentially receive - especially with good averages (cost per share average) - will make a long-term (now more mid-term) investment worth it, as it won’t take nearly as long in comparison to other shares to recoup the initial investment over a few years of dividends (and that’s not taking into account the capital increase on top)

Re your profit & cash statement:
Tbh, it’s better than not making any profits, still losing cash, and forcing shareholders for handouts (unless you accept dilution). Which was the position not that long ago...

Anyways, I guess we’ll have to wait and see what time has in store for us!

GLA DYOR

@snoopnobby
That is probably because they already own 91% of the business
(Top 25 own ~80%)

You can see a useful breakdown of whom they are here:
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/capital-goods/lse-kie/kier-group-shares/ownership

Re “when’s the next big announcement”:
There’s the trading update on the 19th Jan then the Half-Year report on the 9th March coming up

But tbh personally I wouldn’t set my hopes high here considering the recent trading update shared in November, but we’ll have to see what the one in Jan brings
(https://www.kier.co.uk/investors/shareholder-information-general-meetings/financial-calendar/)

Re ‘dividend’:
I personally wouldn’t expect anything here until at least 2024, maybe even into 2025
But when they do come back - aside from the obvious, the boost from the extra capital inflow will exponentially make this worth it in my opinion

In an overall sense the worst is behind Kier, and now we are no longer waiting for an if but a when
GLA DYOR

Ngl to ya Birdyboy, I've been in this boat my entire investing 'career' (4 years now), and it's been one half-year result to the next.
I thought that when the debt was cleared by the last full-year and the profit margin + overall results looked good there, this was going to see some momentum, maybe even a better FTSE position, but alas that has not come to fruition.
In the last results IIRC there were some grumbles about debt re-emerging, and tbh may be why this hasn't seen any major non-retail (=== non-individual) investor engagement, but looking at past examples and similar companies in the industry, this type of thing is expected and the norm, the Final Results will hopefully (as long as they are good and not 'decent') attract some more eyes and then it's a slow crawl from there.

Definitely the re-emergence of a Dividend would be a big help to this process, but that has been stated will on return on a 3x cover, so we'll have to be patient with this one for a good while more I thinks

DYOR GLA

I saw an Evraz RNS that stated it was re-commencing its demerger, but that only shareholders who held before 14th February would be eligible, which made me sad since I bought in after that date.
But then I looked at the share price and saw ~432p - I felt both ecstatic & confused, looked in this board and saw the war was over...

Then I woke up
GLA

Unless you are talking about a "Bull" market, where Bull means up and Bear means down - this is an investor term for the general momentum of the market.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/bull-bear-market-names/

A Blue-Chip stock is supposed to represent a huge company with usually a significant control in it's sector, essentially a company/stock that is too big to fail.
With the term Blue-Chip originating from Poker - where Blue chips were the biggest chip.

Here's for your further reading:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bluechipstock.asp

Same - the timestamp is a snap to 16:48 - odd

Unfortunately his problem is that he is a self-identified Shorter.

Also Steve, you keep saying that, but over the years plenty of people have made cases in response to you, and you either ignore it completely (probably giggling at the time they wasted writing back to you) OR disappear and reappear some time later with another outlandish claim.
At this stage a lot of people are just sick of you.

Despite the good news (more like exactly what was expected), there does seem to be an increased sell pressure since, any thoughts/theories as to why this could be?

My theory & personal view of the historical data here is that we are now experiencing a "Great Offload", in the sense that due to the good news, those who bought at the cheap <80p price aswell as alot of those discounted shares will now be sequentially offloaded for a well deserved profit. This will be thanks to a more continuous and stable influx of buyers, but it seems that the influx is not as big as the quantity of offloaders currently, hence this turbulence.
I believe evidence of this can even be seen before the Full-Year announcement, when the stock peaked at >130p, this process takes time to wade...

Despite this I believe the strategy for those who want to remain invested for long-term such as myself is to simply hold and weather this mild storm, we've weathered much much worse!
However my theory could also be interpreted as a "Great Rebalancing"/"Changing of the Guard" as newer investors take over the posts and with them, will grant us older guard more security when the dust settles (Because they won't have as much of a reason to sell as 'Bobby' over there with his 50% profit)
GLA DYOR

Another thing to keep in mind is the after close Uncrossing trade of +250k, I'm unsure exactly, but I believe this will be factored in upon opening tomorrow

True, but also not true.
But I take it as a massive win that we forced him to delete his outright inflammatory & incorrect post

@PantherPat thank you for your detailed and furthermore eye-opening response!
And just to re-iterate could you (or anyone else) confirm that in reality then, on the 18th there won't be any dilution of the share price, only the loss of people potentially selling to 'cash' their profits?

I'm going to throw my hat in this ring just for the fun of it, I've been invested here for about 2.5 years now.
FYI I am not a professional, so some things I state may be wrong, if you notice something wrong, don't hesitate to point it out.

Firstly the dilution is 'fixed', in the sense that money can't disappear or appear out of nowhere, and we already know the figures, assuming that all the newly issued shares will be taken up we have a new total of 446M shares, from our starting 162M (I noticed on the "KIE share price" here, it states 190M, so have some shares already been introduced? (Maybe partly the director ones)), which is a rough 2/3 dilution, but its not actually as bad as it sounds, as those 2/3 are @85p, which for those that are newer here, we are very very fortunate for this price, I was expecting 60p in all honesty; so our new price post-dilution should be 'Current Share Price'+'New Share Price' (weighting of 1:2) giving us roughly 90p-95p, depending on the share price, note that this will be at the point of dilution, which brings me to my next point.

Secondly I believe that there will be large scale buying in the beginning, perhaps bring us up to 120p in that first week, it's important to keep in mind that the Full-Year Report will be released on the 30th June (Same date as every other year since 2016), which I believe will either bring great fortune or great despair, but IMHO great fortune, as this would explain the timing of the equity raise in the first place, because now they can show us their books with reduced debt, and perhaps some good income (keeping in mind that their operating profit (I don't know if that's the term) is 3.5%, which may sound little, but consider that the aim was 2.5%, and when the new management started they were at 1.5% thanks to the previous bad management (hence the debt)).

All in all, my grand predictions would say that by the end of this year, we should hope to seeing the stock trading at ~200p, and by end-2022 to mid-2023, we should see minimum 300p, which will hopefully be when they reintroduce their dividend at ~10% of share price (30p if 300p) (remember that the dividend is over a year, so it would be split into two smaller dividends), and when that happens, the floodgates will open, and everyone will want a piece of the exciting dividend, allowing those of us who stayed throughout to be handsomely rewarded capitally.

Always DYOR, thank you for reading! :)

@NDev I also use HL and have held shares in Kier since mid 2019

HL are very good and will provide you with all the documentation required, recently there was a IAG share issue (which I didn't take), but the point is that HL will provide you with everything you need and all the information on how to take advantage of the share issue if you so desire to do so (I know I am).

I'm unsure on Trading 212, you'll have to Google that info (or if someone else knows, hopefully they will write a post here too)

Keep an eye on your emails/post from HL as this should be how they communicate the offering to you.

Which I suppose means that offloading Kier Living came at the right time Steve

For those that are curious: https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/news/uk-material-shortages-cement-and-aggregates-added-to-the-list-08-04-2021/
here's a link regarding what Steve is referring to...

Important quote from that article:
"Paul Hooper, chief executive of drainage and building envelopes company Alumasc, said in February that increasing raw materials prices could increase contractor costs by between 4 and 5 per cent. He added that the inflation could be short-lived as the pandemic begins to slow down and raw material availability increases."
DYOR