Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Good article. Cancer cells mutate and mutate, making targeting them difficult, as we know. However so far as I understant it the support, the stroma and CAF's, the bits plastered with FAP, are far less prone to change, and so represent a great target. Who would have thought.
The records on clinicaltrials.org are frequently out of date. As this one clearly is. The MSK page is recent (not dated, but plenty of people check it regularly) and it tells us that the US sites are AT LAST ready to go.
Starbright - I'm sure your numbers add up on a spreadsheet, but there is one huge hole in your argument. If the 4 year scenario came to pass and Avact could see $1bn of 6K revenue then inevitably the rest of the pipeline would be almost totally derisked. The value for an acquirer would then be in Seagen territory for sure. Thi whole thing is about tipping points, not a steady march. At some point the platform is either proven or disproven, or at least quantified. How close are we to that point ? No one knows, but when we reach it it is highly likely that some future value calculation will be crystallised. In reality there is almost zero chance of Avacta 'going it alone', they are a tiny research only outfit, have neither the resources, knowhow, or probably desire to go down that path.
Not expecting anything from Avacta on this, but from the analysts who should be covering it. Lost of scope for higher unit pricing (reward for lack of side effects), longer courses of treatment / higher doses, expansion of patient populations, even maybe new indications where existing dox doses are ineffective. At a total guess I'd be unsuprised at a figure in the region of $5bn per annum.
The parameter that makes the most difference though is the market size. We have seen absolutely nothing properly worked on that, just the current dox market, and the $1.5bn Avacta partial market estimate. It is easy to see that this could be very much larger if the performance of 6K is as we hope.
Runner - these are orders of magnitude approximations, not precise targets or expectations. A 5% here or there to one of the parameters makes little difference. The poiint is that the current price is miles away from what might be regared as a risk adjusted price. Question is why ?
Very Pleased - ever heard of targeting ? That is where you select the patients who will benefit, and not those who will not. It is a fundamental of modern drug development. Your attempts to dig out a negative from this are somewhere between ignorant and evil. I tend towards the latter interpretation.
Sdon, you really do not know what you are talking about. Normal dox goes everywhere, so tumors get a dose proportional to their share of body mass. Lets say 1% to 2% of the dose. 98% or 99% goes where it is not wanted. Now, if you reduce the amount being dumped ex tumor by lets say 75% (as an example) that means that there is a huge amount available to hit the target. This is obviously over simplified, and some will be excreted directly etc etc, but you can see how very large therapeutic doses could denitely be achieved. Everyone on here getting hung up on wanting to know the exact ratio is premature. We can be confident that this will be a huge advance once it has been taken through the next set of trials, which in my view are now, from a science point of view, very low risk.
They are at the stage now of trying to see how the chemistry works. It has been given to 19 people. Your speculations are several years premature. It is one more effort from you at trying to confuse, complicate, and obscure what is going on here. Before you throw your hands up in an 'I'm a holder and I think this works' post, why don't you just keep it shut for a few more days. You will have plenty of meat to gnaw on next weekend.
Give me strength. There has been no suggestion that bolus injections of 6K are possible, desirable, or necessary. Why do you keep posting such rubbish ? As if I didn't know.
So many armchair CEO's, corner shop Phds, ramblers, rampers and the downright dishonest here are attempting to set an expectation at XYZ for next week. Who knows what they will say ? There is a pretty wide spectrum of what might be expected frankly, so my advice is to just wait and listen to what AS and his team say, and not listen to uninformed speculation posing as thoughtful analysis. All this fluff here is far from helpful in my view.