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Ask yourself who is having a conniption about a 'missed deadline' ? The same gang that manage to see something negative is just about anything, the ones that will have you believe that the laws of supply and demand do not exist, that all companies are dishonest, that everything is about to go to absolute ****e. Ignore them.
Hence the cornerstone investment from a big beast that is not scared to hold out for what something is worth, and has the reach to bring other large holders onboard if it gets choppy. A 15% dilution for a much, much larger prize.
There is quite a bit of excitement in the PET imaging crowd about FAP as a target. The beauty for Avacta of course is that not only is it an accurate diagnostic, but it will also be highly prognostic for the success of treatment. If they can use FAPi PET to accurately titrate a personalised dose then this becomes one of the most advanced treatments available. It will not be easy as they need to get some form of quantification from the image, but it should not be beyond the capability of a good machine learning algorithm and a few hundred million $.
The £50 share price story is entirely predicated on a big pharma company making an offer Avacta cannot refuse. Later in the year is more likely, but tomorrow is not impossible. Avacta will never sell a single dose of an approved treatment in my view.
Avacta are not set up to support any significant level of expanded access. Either process wise, or availability of drug substance. No physician has any data on safety yet. It is possible that this is a loophole though which any patients on the trial could continue on medication past their trial dosing.
Safe and tolerable are the same thing, and are all but bolted on given the steady dose escalations. I'd be gobsmacked if there is not clear evidence of high levels of chemo in the tumors. All the data up to the clinical trial shows highly specific activation, high levels of safety prior, and no toxicity from the leaving group. After the number of doses given during the trial they have plenty of evidence to prove the method of action, and will have seen this from the very first patient. They are certainly not acting as if they have a massive fail on their hands are they ? I appreciate the attempt to be even handed, but there is not that much room for ambiguity anymore.
Molecular partners are using darpins (affimer like molecules) both as immunotherapeutics and as targetting ligands going after FAP. The strategy is pretty complex and hit problems earlier in the year precipitating a price drop from around $1bn to todays $200m or so. Here is a news article from April when it started to go pear shaped.
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/news/deals/bad-day-molecular-partners
Around this time Avacta recruited the main IT guy from MP FWIW
Interesting that Avacta are actively involved in the supervision of this, and that it relates content wise to the Imperial spin off that AS has the interest in. They are looking at the characterisation of nano particle drug delivery systems. Something brewing here I suspect.
There are only two meaningful questions. Is it safe ? Is dox being deposited in meaningful concentrations in tumors ? Everything else is noise future value wise. How the market reacts ? It would seem foolish to attempt to predict it.
EGTP- I don't know what information you are reading, but these expectations are completely unrealistic. Dramatic efficacy results from a 1a trial should not be anticipated by anyone. All we need is a clean sheet on safety, and a meaningful dose of dox in the tumor.
Spend 5 mins watching this video. The images show where 6K will be dumping its payload. Look at the expression on the face of the doc who took them. Then tell me that Avacta's tech is not going to turn chemo on its head. FAP is a pan tumor target as yet unexploited by any therapy. A new target, and the whole tech to address it in a brilliantly simple and elegant way locked up. Going for the stroma not the cancer.
https://twitter.com/tom_the_bomb__/status/1608474486881263623
The couple of hundred who have today formed 'the market' seem lukewarm, would the same be said of those who ponied up £55m just a few weeks ago? Today's data is unlikely to be materially different. And I seem to recall Avacta turning down £12m in additional finance, in an environment where many have their backs to the wall for lack of cash. The current share price behavior is not a good indicator of where this is likely to go in the near future.