Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I wasn't aware of the 2 month extension possibility. Regardless, they had so much time to identify the asset and have said they are actively looking back in Nov. There are so many deals being made in oil & gas and metals/minerals no way they could not have found a suitable target. There are some targets that fell through from others, e.g. ORM so I don't think that could be the problem, if it is then they are so clumsy. The only remaining issue could be that Forum's parent company don't have money or the willingness to get into this, but why invest 500k in the first place?
From Arden note today - they maintain the buy with with adjusted target price of 6.4 p (from 6.7p). They also say end of Feb cash due to Capex spend on M-1008 is $5.7M. See below for the current production - I was right to say it is around 2,800 boed due to decline rates etc..
Serinus has releasedits full year results to the end of December 2020.
These report production of 2.3mboe/d full year average (of which
Romania made up 1.8mboe/d and Tunisia 0.5mboe/d), compared with
our forecast of 2.5mboe/d. This follows the 2.4mboe/d reported for Q1-
Q3, with production during Q4 impacted by both natural decline but
also delays to maintenance activities in Tunisia due to coronavirus
restrictions. As such, December production averaged 2.06mboe/d,
compared with the 2.21mboe/d September exit rate, but this then
recovered to a December exit rate of 2.12mboe/d. Since this time,
Serinus has brought the M-1008 well onstream, which tested at rates of
667boe/d net, boosting company production overall.
so keep in mind the Romania decline rates of 3%/month which will make current production of around 2800-2900boed rather than 3200boed as some are predicting. but lets wait and see tomorrow
All the best
also wonder what happened to the work in Tunisia they talked about in Dec. and that should have been done in Jan.
'The Company is in the process of mobilizing external well services to conduct workovers and replace electrical submersible pumps ("ESPs") into two of the four producing wells at Chouech Es Saida. These workovers and pump replacements were initiated on 9 December 2020 and are anticipated to result in increased production from Chouech Es Saida. The Company will also be performing a workover and new pump installation to stabilise and enhance production at the EC-1 well in the Ech Chouch concession in January 2021'
just mentioned on proactive broadcast that final results will be on 26th March. Few other interesting snippets:
Gas prices in Romania currently at $6 Mscf
Moftinu 1008 pays its capex in 120 days of production
Production in Romanian wells as they are shallow gas wells declines at 3%/month
For Moftinu 1008 they can still test other formations
Tunisian work to start later this year and to take approx 18 months
New well in Romania will target new field and this together with Tunisia work is self funding and he specifically said no need for equity raise
So latest well's 4MMscf equates to somewhere between 3.2-4 M pounds pure profit per year for SENX. I based this on the net back figures for Romania from their latest presentation deck. This could be another 10-20% more based on potentially increased gas prices.
So that profit per year for this one well is roughly 10% of the market capitalization of the whole company. How is this not bouncing up on this let alone on future potential is beyond me?
Best to all shareholders, stay patient.
The H-S
Enwell Energy plc
("Enwell" or the "Company")
Arkona Acquisition - Legal Dispute Update - Supreme Court Appeal Result
Enwell Energy plc (AIM: ENW), the AIM-quoted oil and gas exploration and production group, provides an update on the Ukrainian legal proceedings relating to the Svystunivsko-Chervonolutskyi exploration licence (the "Licence") in Ukraine, which is held by LLC Arkona Gas-Energy ("Arkona"), and which was acquired by Enwell in March 2020 (see announcement dated 24 March 2020).
As announced on 3 July 2020, NJSC Ukrnafta ("Ukrnafta"), as claimant, brought legal proceedings against Arkona, as defendant, in which Ukrnafta claimed that irregular procedures were followed in the grant of the Licence to Arkona in May 2017. At the same time, Ukrnafta also brought these proceedings against the State Service of Geology and Subsoil of Ukraine ("SGS"). Ukrnafta was the holder of a previous licence over a part of this area which expired prior to the grant of the Licence. Both Arkona and SGS dispute these claims.
In July 2020, the First Instance Court in Ukraine announced a ruling in favour of Ukrnafta, and subsequently delivered its full decision and written judgement, which determined that the grant of the Licence was irregular, and accordingly, the Licence would be invalid.
In August 2020, Arkona filed an appeal of this decision in the Appellate Administrative Court in Kyiv, and on 29 September 2020, the Appellate Administrative Court ruled in favour of Arkona, overturning the earlier decision of the First Instance Court.
In November 2020, Ukrnafta filed a further appeal in the Supreme Court in Kyiv, appealing the ruling made by the Appellate Administrative Court on 29 September 2020. The Supreme Court has now considered this appeal and delivered its decision and written judgement, in which the Supreme Court ruled that the arguments raised by Ukrnafta in the appeal were not substantiated, and that the proceedings against Arkona should be dismissed. The written judgement is lengthy and consequently the Company's legal advisers are now reviewing the judgement reasoning in detail.
The decision of the Supreme Court represents the final appeal procedure in the Ukrainian Courts, and accordingly, these legal proceedings against Arkona have now been exhausted. As a consequence, the Licence remains valid.
The Company's announcements dated 24 March 2020, 3 July 2020, 31 July 2020, 30 September 2020 and 23 November 2020 provide additional information.
official RNS was issued about Arkona acquisition. final victory for ENW and license remains valid. excellent news for new reserves addition
'without having a clue on what’s going on', oh boy please stop embarrassing yourself further Mr. Genius. You don't have a clue how long it took for ENW to dig a well which is as basic level of what's going on in oil company's business as you can get and you are preaching others? haha. Or you actually lied to scare people and to make your point based on pure lies. Save us from your insights you gonna get embarrassed again
thanks for this. so the answer to my original question is that, although they did get rid of lot of debt and have deferred others, they are not debt free.
I cant quite figure out if they are now completely debt free after last equity conversion as the latest presentation still say they owe $12m to creditors? if that is so why are ppl saying its debt free?
Thanks
my friend there are lots of ppl spouting buy buy nonsense without even understanding the dynamics of pricing in the Ukraine market.. so Ill give you that BUT again you are talking nonsense. 1 year to drill well haha...they spudded in Mid July and completed say in Mid Jan - reached the target depth. how on earth is that 1 year??? even the previous well they did before time and nowhere near 1 year!
They spent $10m before this quarter? again nonsense. even if they did why their cash pile did not decrease accordingly in previous or this quarter?? because as you say they are spending more than they are earning so the cash pile should be decreasing massively every quarter as they drill ESPECIALLY when gas prices were for months lowest in years around 3000-4000 UAH/Mm3
oh my are you talking nonsense my friend..they just finished drilling a new appraisal well in last quarter and their cash pile increased by $6M so how does that tally against them spending on Capex more than they can earn??
I thought they got rid of all debt in last placing - converted it into equity or am I missing something?
am a bit confused as to how much debt they have left after the debt to equity conversion and loan note. can anyone shed more light?
thanks
The question is who are these guys and Why would they get 20% of JKX? Who is Oleksander Shnir..just a front name?
Would you invest some 13M pounds in JKX without hoping for returns or maybe is this part of some bigger game?
Today we are coming up to second highest volume of shares traded in last 5 years. That's telling!
Ukraine energy exchange prices are jumping and will soon see the effects here. Is there more going on here? I hope so..maybe dividends announcement or even better some deal with ENW. Am invested in both and topped up here at 17 p last week.
Best wishes to all SH
Tiburn I appreciate the effort to do the research and write this down for us. You make very good analysis of the current situation and potential in here. I am heavily invested so hope it comes good for us all.
Best to all
good update. key is that there is nothing spectacular on the negative side. If I do a quick calculation on say approx average figures between Q1 and Q2 we are good for around $ 61 M revenue for this year which is around 40% less than reported 2019 revenue of $ 101.7 M. This will mean around $15 M profit for the year. I assumed production slightly less than 11K they said they currently have and have assumed lower oil price of $35. I have not included any major increase in gas prices. If these increase by end of the year and overall boe is maintained at around 11k figures could be closer to $80M+. So how do we value JKX based on these figures 2.5 x profit with no debt and no cash of $14.5M + $1.7M (oil stock) included in the valuation. Surely this is worth at least double that even without predicted recovery in gas prices?